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New Canadian Politics Thread

WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Again you are talking as though an election is imminent. It isn't. And Poilievre's popularity stems from the fact that he's only been leader for 5 minutes. Sure, if an election was 6 weeks from now I'd be worried, but we're nowhere near the deadline yet. Right now, the CPC and their supporters are acting like Leafs fans in December, conveniently forgetting that there's still 40 games left to play.

"Plan the parade!"
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I mean we're about to enter a recession, most likely. Interest rates are shooting upwards. Inflation remains stubbornly high. All of these factors would work against any incumbent in the next election. That, and 10 years of baggage. Plus a personally unpopular leader.
 
thehabhater said:
The CPC has close to 3 more years to keep putting the puck into their own net.

Bet the farm, they will.....
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I expect CPC party discipline under PP will return much closer to what is was like in the Harper years, and nothing close to the Scheer/O'Toole ones.

I dunno, I think a lot of folks around here are underestimating PP and his appeal to the plebs.
 
Wayward DP said:
I expect CPC party discipline under PP will return much closer to what is was like in the Harper years, and nothing close to the Scheer/O'Toole ones.

I dunno, I think a lot of folks around here are underestimating PP and his appeal to the plebs.
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Yeah, PP definitely has the intangibles that make him more popular than you expect. Like Trump or Ford, he's someone that really galvanizes people. Those who don't like his schtick, just hate him, and cannot find a way for anyone to like them. So they tend to under-estimate him.

Plus, PP is the sort of person who is shameless enough to put the puck in his own net, and then blame the maintenance crew, and have people believe him it was their fault.
 
I keep seeing people refer to his appeal with people....yall realize he has like a 2-3% favourability edge over scheer and otoole when they all took the job respectively and is 5% behind the historically unpopular Trudeau in favourability according to polling from earlier this week, right?

I know net rating isn't as valuable in Canada as it is in the US but starting the game with a -17 net rating is probably not good. Scheer and otoole had the benefit of no one knowing who they were, they just failed at creating a strong impression. PP has created an impression and its not a good one. His main claim at the moment is the CPC voters are behind him and he brought 60% of the PPC with him. Thats the real difference between him and the last few guys in the likely voters polls. PP is bringing 5 points worth of nutters with him.

For now
 
MindzEye said:
I keep seeing people refer to his appeal with people....yall realize he has like a 2-3% favourability edge over scheer and otoole when they all took the job respectively and is 5% behind the historically unpopular Trudeau in favourability according to polling from earlier this week, right?

I know net rating isn't as valuable in Canada as it is in the US but starting the game with a -17 net rating is probably not good. Scheer and otoole had the benefit of no one knowing who they were, they just failed at creating a strong impression. PP has created an impression and its not a good one. His main claim at the moment is the CPC voters are behind him and he brought 60% of the PPC with him. Thats the real difference between him and the last few guys in the likely voters polls. PP is bringing 5 points worth of nutters with him.

For now
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He still has 2-3 years to do something incredibly stupid. And he lost a seat already!

I think, this is a blip, and he will not move the needle at all come election time. Especially is Bay St is threatened.
 
MindzEye said:
I keep seeing people refer to his appeal with people....yall realize he has like a 2-3% favourability edge over scheer and otoole when they all took the job respectively and is 5% behind the historically unpopular Trudeau in favourability according to polling from earlier this week, right?

I know net rating isn't as valuable in Canada as it is in the US but starting the game with a -17 net rating is probably not good. Scheer and otoole had the benefit of no one knowing who they were, they just failed at creating a strong impression. PP has created an impression and its not a good one. His main claim at the moment is the CPC voters are behind him and he brought 60% of the PPC with him. Thats the real difference between him and the last few guys in the likely voters polls. PP is bringing 5 points worth of nutters with him.

For now
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and yet the Cons are still leading the Liberals in the polls.
 
thehabhater said:
He still has 2-3 years to do something incredibly stupid. And he lost a seat already!

I think, this is a blip, and he will not move the needle at all come election time. Especially is Bay St is threatened.
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this assumes no election for another two-three years. I don't know that we make it all the way through 2023 without a general election. when sharks smell blood...
 
Harper also presented as smarmy, contemptuous, and unrelateable. That did not stop him. PP has time to be image-adjusted into a more likeable or at least tolerable guy, and he does have a genuine Everyman appeal to a lot of people. I don’t personally get it, but I won’t deny it exists either.

Also as I mentioned before, PP’s constituents in the Ottawa suburbs genuinely love him. They’re a reasonable proxy for the average centrist voter in a lot of the ridings PP needs to win, IMO.
 
If the Liberals can exploit his far right leanings, there will be another leadership convention after the next election.

The cycnic in me thinks that the wife threat, was a sham to erase PP's right wing connection and move him to the center.
 
Yeah, count me in the group that figures a guy who didn't realize that hanging out and supporting deeply unpopular events with swastika flags out in the open was a bad idea, is going to struggle to not dog whistle his way to multiple own goals to maintain the PPC voter support that is literally the only difference between him and the last 2 chumps in current polling.
 
thehabhater said:
If the Liberals can exploit his far right leanings, there will be another leadership convention after the next election.

The cycnic in me thinks that the wife threat, was a sham to erase PP's right wing connection and move him to the center.
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what is the actual substance of his 'far right leanings' though?

I don't think he has staked out much in the way of extreme policy positions but do correct me if I am wrong. his Governor of the Bank of Canada nonsense is just that. he's done a good job of getting the support of the nutters without going too far down the nutter road himself is my take.

possible exception to that is him cozying up with the convoy fucks but sadly that may not actually lose him much of any support anyhow.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, count me in the group that figures a guy who didn't realize that hanging out and supporting deeply unpopular events with swastika flags out in the open was a bad idea, is going to struggle to not dog whistle his way to multiple own goals to maintain the PPC voter support that is literally the only difference between him and the last 2 chumps in current polling.
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hey, this is one that I really do hope you are right on. but I am kinda afraid of PP and his appeal.
 
Also PP was running for Conservative party leader when he blew on those particular dog whistles. It’s possible he knew very well what he was doing at the time and is counting on the average voter to forget or not care anymore come election time. Can the Liberals milk “he shook hands with a nazi” until 2025?

My main concern is that people have underestimated PP’s political savvy and continue to do so. If the Liberals do the same, I don’t expect to see them in government again, probably for a decade.
 
Wayward DP said:
let's talk in a few months when we're in the midst of a grueling recession, energy prices are rising cause of Russia, etc.
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I think you're listening to too many doomsayers mate.

Canadian economy has shown itself to be durable in the face of rate hikes and as I showed a few days ago, the inflationary event is more or less over. Any additional rate hikes will be reversed quickly if unemployment takes a hit (which they've already started to, but going from historically low rates to abnormally low rates isn't setting off alarm bells).

As for energy prices, in the Canadian context we're really only talking about natgas for winter heating. Current forecasts I've seen doesn't have the unit price getting higher than we've already seen it. We're also a net exporter, so there's all sorts of levers we can pull if it does become a problem.

And the political reality is that one of the Liberals or NDP would have to break an agreement that forms a majority coalition until 2025...why? NDP polling is flat, and if Pierre is half of what you're guys are concerned about him being, any liberal support lost is going to bleed to the CPC, not the NDP. I don't see how an election at any time in the next year benefits anyone other than Pierre.
 
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