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New Canadian Politics Thread

MindzEye said:
A minority, but yes.

Have to remember, his approval numbers are way worse in vote sparse Alberta and Sask than they are anywhere else. Dougie isn't making the Conservative brand any more popular in Ontario over the next year either and I still think that when undecideds see Scheer and Trudeau share a stage together, and actually hear the words that come out of Scheers mouth, it's game over. Scheer still benefits from the average Canadian not being able to pick him out of a 2 man lineup.
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+1
 
BKW041911Scheer_HS.jpg




never gonna happen.
 
Altair said:
You need to remember, this is Canada.

The voting public doesnt vote people in, they vote governments out.
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While this is cute and folksy, it's not necessarily true. Trudeau for example, was very much voted in.

Also, doing a little digging into his approval by region
Let's got east to west.

Atlantic Canada 44 approve-49 disapprove

Quebec 30 approve-60 disapprove

Ontario 42 approve-52 disapprove

Manitoba 37 approve-57 disapprove

Saskatchewan 20 approve-79 disapprove

Alberta 18 approve-78 disapprove

BC 38 approve- 57 disapprove
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Quebec is really the only problem there imo. Trudeau could build the pipeline by himself and AB/Sask would still find a reason to hate him. Everything else there is reasonable. You can't think of this in terms of American approval ratings, Canadian approval ratings pretty much never work that way. Trudeau's previous high approval ratings were the aberration, not the norm.

While Alberta and Saskatchewan are the worst in terms of approval ratings, across the board he's doing very poorly.
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Again, I think some context is needed. Harper never once had his disapproval better than 52% and for the majority of his rule, it was between 60%-70% disapproval.

Again, he's doing a worst job than Trump. TRUMP
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I don't think that measuring approval across borders and systems like that works as linear as you're stating it here.
 
MindzEye said:
While this is cute and folksy, it's not necessarily true. Trudeau for example, was very much voted in.
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I seem to remember a very vocal and active ABC movement. I know this because I was a part of it.
Also, doing a little digging into his approval by region


Quebec is really the only problem there imo. Trudeau could build the pipeline by himself and AB/Sask would still find a reason to hate him. Everything else there is reasonable. You can't think of this in terms of American approval ratings, Canadian approval ratings pretty much never work that way. Trudeau's previous high approval ratings were the aberration, not the norm.
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I don't really see how being 10 months away from a election with a approval rating sitting at 35 percent can be a good thing.
Again, I think some context is needed. Harper never once had his disapproval better than 52% and for the majority of his rule, it was between 60%-70% disapproval.
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Harper, in fairness, had a war and a economic crisis to deal with. If we afford Obama that, we should afford Harper that as well.

Trudeau has no war, and the economy is as good as it has been in decades. Where is there room for improvement in the next ten months? What more can they offer voters? I'm not scheer?
I don't think that measuring approval across borders and systems like that works as linear as you're stating it here.
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Maybe not, but this isn't encouraging.
 
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Altair said:
I seem to remember a very vocal and active ABC movement. I know this because I was a part of it.
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Meh, I think you're downplaying how popular Trudeau was at the time.

I don't really see how being 10 months away from a election with a approval rating sitting at 35 percent can be a good thing.
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Because, like I said, omit AB-Sask and that pops up to just under 40%. 5.5 million Canadians there just don't ****ing like him and it sucks to put it this way, but they don't matter. Their hatred is long baked into the formulas that keep him elected. Quebec though, that's a problem.

Harper, in fairness, had a war and a economic crisis to deal with. If we afford Obama that, we should afford Harper that as well.
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In 2011-2015? Harper's most popular period was during the war and just after the economic crisis.

Trudeau has no war, and the economy is as good as it has been in decades. Where is there room for improvement in the next ten months? What more can they offer voters? I'm not sheer?
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Why do you assume that these swings in voter sentiment are rational? There doesn't need to be an "improvement", just a change in mood from a couple percent of the population and all of a sudden he's popular again. That doesn't necessarily need to be attached to anything rational.

Maybe not, but this isn't encouraging.
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It's not particularly concerning yet either.
 
You seem to be pretty confident that this isn't a canary in the coal mine for the liberals come next October, and I hope that scheer doesnt win.

I'm simply surprised at the low approval of Trudeau. I know a couple of decisions he has made has turned me off of him to the point where I won't vote for him, but I didn't think that sentiment was so widespread.
 
Altair said:
You seem to be pretty confident that this isn't a canary in the coal mine for the liberals come next October,
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I am. Ford is pissing off Ontarians already and his vocal shitting on Trudeau will probably help as we get closer to the election, Quebec appears to have cratered as far as it will go and team Trudeau will likely put some time and effort into bolstering Quebec support because election time is nearly here.

and I hope that scheer doesnt win.
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Like I said, the average voter doesn't know who the **** he is yet. I do, and I'm pretty comfortable with the fact that he's really unlikeable. He doesn't even have that air of nerdy competence and waspy intensity that Harper had. Harper looked and sounded like that really good accountant you go to once a year. Scheer just doesn't have that. Also, his policy points are let's just say, off base with the majority of Canadians. As recent as 2 months ago, he wouldn't commit to maintaining legal cannabis if he's elected.

Thing with Trudeau's disapproval is that he's getting nailed by the entire right and the far left. When Scheer is forced to show his hand on policy points, the far left will get in line behind Trudeau imo.

I'm simply surprised at the low approval of Trudeau. I know a couple of decisions he has made has turned me off of him to the point where I won't vote for him, but I didn't think that sentiment was so widespread.
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I'm not. It's been a shitstorm in 2018, with his major policy victory rolling out pretty ****ing horribly across the country.
 
MindzEye said:
I am. Ford is pissing off Ontarians already and his vocal shitting on Trudeau will probably help as we get closer to the election, Quebec appears to have cratered as far as it will go and team Trudeau will likely put some time and effort into bolstering Quebec support because election time is nearly here.



Like I said, the average voter doesn't know who the **** he is yet. I do, and I'm pretty comfortable with the fact that he's really unlikeable. He doesn't even have that air of nerdy competence and waspy intensity that Harper had. Harper looked and sounded like that really good accountant you go to once a year. Scheer just doesn't have that. Also, his policy points are let's just say, off base with the majority of Canadians. As recent as 2 months ago, he wouldn't commit to maintaining legal cannabis if he's elected.

Thing with Trudeau's disapproval is that he's getting nailed by the entire right and the far left. When Scheer is forced to show his hand on policy points, the far left will get in line behind Trudeau imo.



I'm not. It's been a shitstorm in 2018, with his major policy victory rolling out pretty ****ing horribly across the country.
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Dougie winning means anything could happen, but yes, Sheer doesn't have anywhere near the Folksy attitude that Ford has. And as bad as it looks for the Liberals, the NDP is just a tire fire right now. And given what Ford has done since he won, I can't imagine he's helping the conservative brand in Ontario.
 
I can't see Scheer ever beating Trudeau in a general election, but I've been wrong before.

Something not being discussed is the impact of the peepee party. I think Bernier is going to siphon a LOT more Conservative votes than anyone expected. The fringy wing of the party may jump ship on mass to peepee party. And I think the fringy wing of the party is probably bigger than Cons would like to admit (just look at the rise of Doug, Patrick Brown winning before that by campaigning to the far right).

The pathetic NDP also greatly helps Trudeau.

So yeah, moral of the story, if I were Justin, I would be a little weary, but not overly concerned at this point.
 
The Bernier effect will be interesting.

Not just the votes he may siphon off, but that he might drive Scheer to take positions aimed to shore up the right-wing populist wing of his party, but that'll unpopular with a majority of voters.

Anti-immigration rhetoric is one thing that comes to mind. Or culture warrior stuff like anti-multiculturalism, anti-PC, anti-media, etc.
 
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