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New Canadian Politics Thread

This is one of those situations where everyone is right a little bit but it's almost impossible to know how much is attributable to each reason.

- Trudeau was deeply unpopular and his stepping down was always going to lead to a bump in "insert your favourite replacement here" polling. Though I think there's a decent counter argument that he's stuck around long enough to hurt the "Liberal" brand. So the entire bump being caused by his resignation is unlikely.

- Carney did immediately vault himself into being the favourite in the liberal leadership race with his daily show appearance but that's still a fairly limited media appearance that did get a fair bit of online amplification but I'm personally not convinced that the average Canadian voter knows him that well yet. An "impression of" poll from late January had Carney with a +13 positive/negative impression, but the bigger story in it imo was 48% either having a "neutral" or "don't enough enough to say" impression. Imo, "neutral" is at least mostly code for "don't want to admit that I don't know enough about him"

- The threat of Tariffs (and...fucking annexation) has definitely generated support for Carney, and a poll out this week had him shit kicking Polievre when Canadians were asked who their preference was in who would be negotiating on Canada's behalf. Pierre came in at a shockingly low 26%, which I think underlines that the vast majority of Canadians, even a lot who would have voted for him, know that he's a lightweight douchebag empty suit. Grievance is a fine motivator, but when faced with an actual existential crisis a lot of people are smart enough to value competence above other "attributes".
 
worm said:
The perfect fictional candidate leading the libs probably also helps the numbers.
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In most scenarios, I'd agree. But I think Trudeau has torpedoed the Liberal brand over the last 1-2 years. So the "perfect fictional liberal candidate" has a lower ceiling that it usually would.

The other thing is that Mark Carney is pretty much the perfect fictional liberal candidate made flesh. Hyper competent technocrat who makes just enough progressive sounds with mouth to appear a bit left of canadian centre while being a white male who helped shepherd the country through the last 2 biggest financial jams of the last 80 years is the closest thing to the Liberal Party messiah that we're ever going to get.
 
Aberdeen said:
Carney is synonymous with economy, and that's all anyone can think about right now. Also he is internationally connected to UK and other alternative trading partners. To get elected he should also pretend to be against immigration.
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The Liberals putting an immigration freeze in place already is going to help him on that front. Really easy to point to the current policy and say that we need to get some other things handled before being able to put a forward looking immigration policy together, etc. Immigration has only become unpopular because of the housing price crisis. Just pivot to talk about home prices whenever immigration comes up.

Whenever the election happens, most of the oxygen in the room is going to get sucked up by tariffs, trade, trump, cost of living, jobs, etc. It's going to be a meat and potatoes (lol, fuck you zeke) election.
 
zeke said:

View: https://x.com/kylejhutton/status/1889407527168909710
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This is a perfect storm of the Libs getting a boost from Trudeau’s departure, a fresh “mystery box” leader, Trump galvanizing Canadian national spirit, Poilievre’s utter failure to meet the moment by appearing to be a Trump lapdog, and the complete and total collapse of the NDP vote to the Libs—both to keep Poilievre out and because of Singh’s obvious complete inadequacy as a federal leader.

Giddyup, and let’s keep it going!
 
…and I missed that there’s also a pretty significant Bloc collapse baked in there as well.

I guess separatism and casting a protest vote for a party that can’t form government are less appealing when the country is under attack and a Quisling shitheel has a serious chance of winning?
 
LeafGm said:
This is a perfect storm of the Libs getting a boost from Trudeau’s departure, a fresh “mystery box” leader, Trump galvanizing Canadian national spirit, Poilievre’s utter failure to meet the moment by appearing to be a Trump lapdog, and the complete and total collapse of the NDP vote to the Libs—both to keep Poilievre out and because of Singh’s obvious complete inadequacy as a federal leader.

Giddyup, and let’s keep it going!
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It's about fucking time that this international right wing/fascist movement started scoring some own goals. Trump being the core reason Poliviere snatches defeat from the jaws of victory would be beautiful.
 
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