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New Canadian Politics Thread

zeke said:
I think the lib tv spots are crazy better than the cons' at the moment, but i might be biased.
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I haven't seen any Libs spots.

I've seen a ton of conservative ones though.

Seems to be a Sherman versus tiger situation.
 
Altair said:
Conservatives 0- 2 Carbon Tax

Still might not matter past October.
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It will.

The more Canadians, all Canadians, see Scheer, the less likely they'll be to vote for him. They've barely even seen him yet and he's already turning them off. When the west gets a really good look at him, and worse, watches him not look any hell next to Trudeau in the debates, they won't flip on him, but they'll do the next worst thing. They'll stay home on election day.

He's going to get merked in Ontario and mollywhopped in Quebec. You can't win without one of the two. Boy Blunder has made this a legit fight but a combination of Dougie Ford and Scheer being every uptight douchebag neighbour you never talk to, is going to sink him in Ontario.
 
MindzEye said:
It will.

The more Canadians, all Canadians, see Scheer, the less likely they'll be to vote for him. They've barely even seen him yet and he's already turning them off. When the west gets a really good look at him, and worse, watches him not look any hell next to Trudeau in the debates, they won't flip on him, but they'll do the next worst thing. They'll stay home on election day.

He's going to get merked in Ontario and mollywhopped in Quebec. You can't win without one of the two. Boy Blunder has made this a legit fight but a combination of Dougie Ford and Scheer being every uptight douchebag neighbour you never talk to, is going to sink him in Ontario.
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Putting a lot of faith in Trudeau rocking the debates.

Conservatives staying home.

The NDP and Green vote migrating back to the Liberals.

I'll keep an eye on the poll tracker, so far, nothing is moving the last few months, its going to take a campaign of the ages for trudeau to start getting his numbers moving in the right direction
 
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cbc-election-poll-demographics-1.5189750

New Canadians are still backing the Liberals, Indigenous voters have abandoned the party in droves and first-time voters are leaning disproportionately toward the New Democrats and the Greens and away from the Conservatives — if they intend to vote at all.

These are the findings of a poll commissioned by CBC News. It offers a glimpse into the politics of a few demographic groups that are often overlooked in national polls but could play a decisive role in the October federal election.
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The Liberals made significant inroads among Indigenous people in the 2015 federal election. In polling divisions located entirely on First Nations reserves, the party captured 40.5 per cent of the vote — an increase of nearly 28 percentage points over 2011.

But the poll suggests the party has lost a lot of the support they gained four years ago.

Among Indigenous respondents who recalled how they voted in 2015, 41 per cent voted for the Liberals. Now, just 24 per cent of decided or leaning Indigenous voters would cast their ballot for the party — a drop of 17 points.

The Conservatives and New Democrats led in the poll, with 26 per cent support each among Indigenous voters — that's largely unchanged from how respondents remember their votes in 2015 (25 per cent for the NDP and 24 per cent for the Conservatives). The Greens appear to have benefited most from the Liberal slide, doubling their support among Indigenous people to 16 per cent.
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Forty-five per cent of new Canadians polled say they voted for the Liberals in 2015 and 39 per cent say they currently intend to vote for the party in 2019 — a drop of six points. But the Liberals still hold a comfortable lead with this group over the Conservatives, who are up only three points to 29 per cent.
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Young voters came out in record numbers in 2015 and helped give the Liberals their majority government. But the party can't count on dominating this election's cohort of new voters.

The Liberals led in the CBC News poll among first-time voters with 29 per cent — no different than their standing among other voters. But they were followed closely by the New Democrats at 26 per cent, and Trudeau and Singh were tied as the preferred prime minister among first-time voters with 22 per cent apiece.
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While the poll did not have a separate sample of visible minorities, the overall sample was large enough that it included a significant number of respondents who self-identified as visible minorities.

The results show these voters are split between the three main parties, with the Liberals narrowly edging out the others with 29 per cent. The Conservatives followed closely with 28 per cent and the NDP with 24 per cent.
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Bleeding all over the place.
 
The Greens appear to have benefited most from the Liberal slide, doubling their support among Indigenous people to 16 per cent.
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I guarantee you that this poll or any other that purports to represent their views is utterly bereft of a statistically representative sample of 'indigenous people'.
 
Liberals now up 35% to the Conservatives 30% according to Nanos. That's close to majority territory.

Nano's is a very respectable polling company.

CBC Poll Tracker now has the Libs with the better chance to form a majority.
 
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hasn't Nanos also had the cons ahead consistently for a while too? if so, the change is a significant development for the Libs I would think.

but the campaign won't really heat up until summer is done, so I'm not sure we should be reading a ton into the summer polls.

there is a hilarious photo of Scheer at the Calgary Stampede, the CBC used it on one of their stories. Libs just need to run attack ads with that photo, no other text or audio, and they should win handily.
 
This one?

andrew_scheer.jpg
 
Those numbers kind of line up with what some of us have been suggesting as a strong possibility.

That being, it's one thing when the choice is a hypothetical "someone other than Trudeau" or "insert generic Conservative leader with no platform here". Then it's easy for a lot of people to say they'd like to make the switch. It's another thing when Canadians start getting exposed to the actual Andrew Scheer and his policies and paying attention as we get closer to the election.

Once that happens, I have serious doubts that enough people will be willing to vote Conservative to tip the election to them, especially when the NDP and their leader are a complete nonentity. It also doesn't help Scheer when you have freshly elected tools like Ford & Kenney leaving their piss stains all over the wider Conservative brand.
 
Wayward DP said:
hasn't Nanos also had the cons ahead consistently for a while too? if so, the change is a significant development for the Libs I would think.

but the campaign won't really heat up until summer is done, so I'm not sure we should be reading a ton into the summer polls.

there is a hilarious photo of Scheer at the Calgary Stampede, the CBC used it on one of their stories. Libs just need to run attack ads with that photo, no other text or audio, and they should win handily.
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His own ads are attack ads on himself.

In an election where they're trying to run on JT being weak and embarassing, Andrew scheer is an hilarious candidate to run.
 
Other than the goofy looking politician hilariously trying to look like an every man? Nothing.

It's his schtick though. Him wearing brand new Raptors gear that may as well have had the tags still on them at the parade was also cringey try-hard.

But as for this picture, he's just another one of the Calgary corporate cowboys who look ridiculous with their brand new cowboy gear they break out every year at Stampede. It's kind of ****ing ridiculous. I lived in Downtown Calgary for 4 years and you didn't see a single cowboy hat for ~50 weeks of the year. But posers like this guy jumped out of the ****ing woodwork when it was Stampede.
 
MindzEye said:
Other than the goofy looking politician hilariously trying to look like an every man? Nothing.

It's his schtick though. Him wearing brand new Raptors gear that may as well have had the tags still on them at the parade was also cringey try-hard.

But as for this picture, he's just another one of the Calgary corporate cowboys who look ridiculous with their brand new cowboy gear they break out every year at Stampede. It's kind of ****ing ridiculous. I lived in Downtown Calgary for 4 years and you didn't see a single cowboy hat for ~50 weeks of the year. But posers like this guy jumped out of the ****ing woodwork when it was Stampede.
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Seems like nit-picking. Every year every politician dons the same get up. A none issue for me.
 
people judge politicians based on superficial things like how they look, how tall they are, how much hair they have, etc. all the time. there's tons of studies discussing how we subconsciously make character judgments based off of what are probably irrational criteria.

and man, Scheer just looks like the world's biggest weenie. I'm not going to pretend I'm unbiased, because I'm not, but I have a hard time looking at photos like that (or really any photo of him) and wanting to trust him to run our country.
 
anne25 said:
Seems like nit-picking. Every year every politician dons the same get up. A none issue for me.
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His stampede get up was just the recent example the picture was from. My favourite is him wearing the fresh off the rack Raptors gear at NPS for the parade/celebration a couple of weeks ago. In a lot of ways it's as ridulous as numbnuts dressing a like a bollywood extra when he visited India.
 
The Liberals have been fine. The economy is doing great and we've opened our borders to many of those in need. This election isn't based on what the country needs -- the secondary noise is what is making this closer than what it should be.

Now that the federal conservatives have been getting more air time (pro-life rallies, teaming up with Faith Goldy, being anti-climate change action, etc.) combined with the disasters some of the provincial conservatives governments have been (esp. Doug Ford) the polls are starting to shift.
 
yeah but at the end of the day, I think the outcome of this election will come down to the vote splitting on the left.

at most, 40% of the population will vote Conservative. at most.

but of the remaining 60%, that vote fragments between three or four parties. and with the rise of the Greens everywhere, plus some dirty Liberal laundry (SNC, India trip, the whole JWR shebang, Norman trial), I could see enough people being disenfranchised by the Libs to vote for the Greens for example.

on the other hand, the more talk there is of the Cons winning, the more that should help the Libs, I would think. but who the hell knows anymore. none of the options are anything to write home about.
 
Wayward DP said:
yeah but at the end of the day, I think the outcome of this election will come down to the vote splitting on the left.

at most, 40% of the population will vote Conservative. at most.

but of the remaining 60%, that vote fragments between three or four parties. and with the rise of the Greens everywhere, plus some dirty Liberal laundry (SNC, India trip, the whole JWR shebang, Norman trial), I could see enough people being disenfranchised by the Libs to vote for the Greens for example.

on the other hand, the more talk there is of the Cons winning, the more that should help the Libs, I would think. but who the hell knows anymore. none of the options are anything to write home about.
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The polls are starting shift back in the Libs favour. Nanos has them at 35% while the have the Cons at 30.
 
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