New Canadian Politics Thread

[CaptainBolduke]

Now all of Nanos (significantly), Mainstreet and Hill Times/Campaign have the federal Liberals polling in front. Angus Reid has the Conservatives out in front (significantly).

 

[worm]

no spoilers please

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, that Angus Reid poll is a bit jarring when viewed next to the last couple weeks worth of national polls. None of them have the PC's over 34% and none have the Liberals under 33%. Angus Reid comes along and drops a 38-30 on us.

 

[UWHabs]

Yeah, that Angus Reid poll is a bit jarring when viewed next to the last couple weeks worth of national polls. None of them have the PC's over 34% and none have the Liberals under 33%. Angus Reid comes along and drops a 38-30 on us.

19 times out of 20. If you have 3-4 poll companies dropping new polls every couple days, once every couple weeks you're going to have a big outlier one crop up.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, I've got some understanding of how it works. They all have their own proprietary formulas on likely voters in each demographic, region, etc. Some are a little bit more kind than others to the demographic make up of certain parties. So if your model predicts that 60+ yr old white people are going to vote in higher than normal numbers, you might predict the PC's as getting 38%.

 

[MindzEye]

It's our turn

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/07/18/news/twitter-bots-boosted-trending-trudeaumustgo-hashtag

The hashtag #TrudeauMustGo soared to the top of Twitter's trending list in Canada on Tuesday, perhaps giving some observers the impression that Canadians were taking to social media en masse to express their discontent with the prime minister.

But a closer look revealed that much of the activity surrounding the hashtag was actually driven by accounts tweeting at non-human rates, including about two dozen accounts created in the past 48 hours.

The trending hashtag came in response to comments Trudeau made on Monday, when he criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent racist tweets in which he told four sitting congresswomen to go back to the countries they came from.

To get a better look at the activity surrounding #TrudeauMustGo, we used the open source data visualization platform Kibana to analyze 31,600 tweets from 8,185 unique users who tweeted the hashtag on July 16 and July 17.

Several notable patterns emerged from the data, including numerous indicators of inauthentic activity.

Some accounts using the hashtag displayed signs of automation, while others appeared to be pro-Trump accounts that jumped onto the anti-Trudeau hashtag. About 400 accounts had the word “MAGA” in their profiles.

The account @CanadaProud10 was the top contributor to the hashtag, putting out 119 tweets tagged with #TrudeauMustGo. The account was created in May 2019 and has tweeted an average of 142 times a day since then, which suggests it may be at least partially automated. Another top contributor, @ErikLuczak, has tweeted an average of 313 times a day since December 2018.

More than two dozen accounts tweeting the hashtag were created in the past two days, many of which tweeted at non-human rates. For example, @tcanuckchik tweeted more than 230 times within 24 hours of creating an account. Another account, @aviator300E, was created on July 14 and tweeted more than 200 times a day during the first two days of its existence. Other recently created accounts displayed similar rapid-firing tweeting, some of which have already been deleted or suspended by Twitter.

 

[MindzEye]

New EKOS poll has the Liberals up on the CPC again, but most importantly, it has the Liberals face ****ing the CPC in Ontario:

National:
Lib - 33.6%
CPC - 31.3%

Ontario:
Lib - 39.5%
CPC - 31%

Bonus round: Quebec
Lib - 35.8%
CPC - 21%


I don't care if you have 100% of the vote in your enclave from Winnipeg to Kelowna, nobody cares what they think. If you get thumped in Ontario and Quebec, you lose, full stop.

The EKOS seat projections from this poll

Lib - 194
CPC - 118
NDP - 16
GPC - 8
BQ - 2

 

[CaptainBolduke]

The CBC Poll Tracker still hasn't caught up to the recent reality that the Libs are currently polling better than the other parties.

 

[zeke]

Stick with the poll trackers. Much better way of using polls.

 

[Altair]

New EKOS poll has the Liberals up on the CPC again, but most importantly, it has the Liberals face ****ing the CPC in Ontario:

National:
Lib - 33.6%
CPC - 31.3%

Ontario:
Lib - 39.5%
CPC - 31%

Bonus round: Quebec
Lib - 35.8%
CPC - 21%


I don't care if you have 100% of the vote in your enclave from Winnipeg to Kelowna, nobody cares what they think. If you get thumped in Ontario and Quebec, you lose, full stop.

The EKOS seat projections from this poll

Lib - 194
CPC - 118
NDP - 16
GPC - 8
BQ - 2

Why is the bloc so low?

 

[MindzEye]

Why is the bloc so low?

Fptp can be a bitch when you're polling at 19%.

 

[MindzEye]

Stick with the poll trackers. Much better way of using polls.

Sure, but an aggregator is only as good as its weighting. It sure looks like grenier has picked the two outlier cpc friendly polls of the last few weeks to put a heavy weighting behind.

 

[Altair]

Fptp can be a bitch when you're polling at 19%.

That 19 percent is centered in the quebec countryside and I would be very surprised if they only pick up two seats from there.

Doesn't matter a great deal, but I had them pegged at 10-15

 

[Altair]

Sure, but an aggregator is only as good as its weighting. It sure looks like grenier has picked the two outlier cpc friendly polls of the last few weeks to put a heavy weighting behind.

The proper response to that isn't to put all your faith in the Ekos poll.

 

[MindzEye]

That 19 percent is centered in the quebec countryside and I would be very surprised if they only pick up two seats from there.

Doesn't matter a great deal, but I had them pegged at 10-15

They only had 4 seats in the 2011 election on 23% of the Quebec vote, and finished 2nd in 42 races. FPTP baby.

 

[MindzEye]

The proper response to that isn't to put all your faith in the Ekos poll.

I don't remember doing that. I'm speaking about a general trend of polls over the last few weeks of which their are two results that appear to be significant outliers. Grenier has weighted those 2 outliers with over 40% of the weighting in his aggregator.

Aggregators are brilliant, but they do have some blind spots. Taking a somewhat irrationally long time to catch up to a shift in the wind is one of them.

 

[Altair]

I don't remember doing that. I'm speaking about a general trend of polls over the last few weeks of which their are two results that appear to be significant outliers. Grenier has weighted those 2 outliers with over 40% of the weighting in his aggregator.

Aggregators are brilliant, but they do have some blind spots. Taking a somewhat irrationally long time to catch up to a shift in the wind is one of them.

Which ones to believe. Some have the Liberals in front by a few, some have the cons and libs tied, other have the CPC out front by a few.

I can see why the poll tracker is having issues and not finding the movement.

That all said, this thing is going to come down to the debates.

Can trudeau defend his record, will scheer be as awkward in the debates as he is in everything else he does, and does trudeau do the smart thing and allow bernier to participate

 

[zeke]

Sure, but an aggregator is only as good as its weighting. It sure looks like grenier has picked the two outlier cpc friendly polls of the last few weeks to put a heavy weighting behind.

If the trend has legs the poll tracker wi inevitably show it, and well before the election.

 

[MindzEye]

Which ones to believe. Some have the Liberals in front by a few, some have the cons and libs tied, other have the CPC out front by a few.

I can see why the poll tracker is having issues and not finding the movement.

Well, like I said, look at the weighting. The two craziest CPC polls at the moment, carry over 40% of the total weighting. The two craziest Liberal polls carry 6.4% of the weighting.

So which ones to "believe". All of them. They're all useful data. Weight the recent polls equally though and it's 33% to 33% instead of the poll trackers current 35.4-31.3 CPC lead.

That all said, this thing is going to come down to the debates.

Maybe, but Scheer is going to have to over come the anti Ford sentiment in Ontario and I don't know if he's capable of that. He's not winning without Ontario. Nobody cares if he pulls 60% of the middle of the country.

Can trudeau defend his record, will scheer be as awkward in the debates as he is in everything else he does, and does trudeau do the smart thing and allow bernier to participate

I don't disagree that he should allow Bernier in, at least you're giving Scheer something to fight in his prairie fortress. Any dollar the CPC is forced to spend to defend home turf is a win for the Liberals. I don't think it will have an effect on seat count though.

 

[MindzEye]

If the trend has legs the poll tracker wi inevitably show it, and well before the election.

I'm not disputing that. I'm just pointing out that the trend has very likely shifted already and have given the reason I believe it has and isn't showing up in the aggregator numbers yet.