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New Canadian Politics Thread

LeafGm said:
Pretty stunning that this nut job came within a whisker of leading one of the two major parties in Canada.

You have to wonder how much of the shit he's spouting are genuinely held beliefs that he's kept under wraps for years for the sake of seeing mainstream and electable.

And then how much of it is just a cold, cynical political calculation on his part that this is the shit he needs to espouse if he's going to try and ride the hard-right, populist anti-immigrant wave that's swept through other Western democracies.
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It's definitely both. Bernier has no allegiance to the current right wing establishment in Canada, and watched the Reform Party burn it to the ground (while his father was a 3 time MP) a generation ago. It appears that he took the lessons from the Reform book and is doing it again now that the CPC has been forced to the middle by Harper & Co. Bernier knows that if the CPC floats to the middle, there is a disaffected base of religious xenophobes in western Canada just waiting for someone to come and stroke them the right way. It took the reform party about 15 years to perform their soft coup of the political right in Canada, and I'd be surprised if Bernier and his gang weren't angling to do the same all over again.
 
MindzEye said:
It's definitely both. Bernier has no allegiance to the current right wing establishment in Canada, and watched the Reform Party burn it to the ground (while his father was a 3 time MP) a generation ago. It appears that he took the lessons from the Reform book and is doing it again now that the CPC has been forced to the middle by Harper & Co. Bernier knows that if the CPC floats to the middle, there is a disaffected base of religious xenophobes in western Canada just waiting for someone to come and stroke them the right way. It took the reform party about 15 years to perform their soft coup of the political right in Canada, and I'd be surprised if Bernier and his gang weren't angling to do the same all over again.
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To which I say, get that man into the debates.

There is only one party that the PPC is going to be drawing voters from.
 
Altair said:
To which I say, get that man into the debates.

There is only one party that the PPC is going to be drawing voters from.
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Although on the flipside, if he goes out as a ranting and raving lunatic, suddenly Scheer doesn't start to look so crazy after all...
 
MindzEye said:
The Nazis?
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The ones residing the in CPC, yes.

The liberals are need to fight a 3 way battle for center left voters, let the PCs deal with a little vote split and see how they do.

Bernier being around right now is costing Scheer 2-3 percent of the vote, numbers that would this election a likely slam dunk for scheer if the PPC didn't exist.

Give bernier a large platform and let's see if he can grab more build a wall types from the CPC and maybe start grabbing 4-5 percent of the electorate. The CPC would need to move to the right to conteract this, making them less acceptable to moderate or ignore it and watch as bernier continues to grab support from his right wing.

Either way, good.
 
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New Leger has CPC at 36, LPC at 33, NDP at 11, Greens at 12.

While it has the CPC leading, this is significant because last month Leger had CPC at 38, LPC at 29, NDP at 13 and Greens at 11
 
Some fascinating polls out today -- all good news for the Liberals.

A new Ledger poll, which has constantly had the Conservatives way out in front is now much much much closer. Ledger had the Cons up by 10 points just a month ago and now it's down to just a 3 point lead at 36 to 33. Ledger has been the outlier the last month, but it now seems like it's starting to catch up.

Also, Nanos released a Quebec only poll, which is also fascinating and it is showing a complete bloodbath for the Liberals at 45%, while the Bloc have moved into second at 16% with the Cons at 15%.

IF the last month or so worth of polls are correct, Andrew Scheer is in a lot of trouble.
 
I still take the national numbers with a bit of a grain of salt for reasons I've mentioned before. The Conservative's vote efficiency is going to be ugly in this election. If they get 32% nationally, but 28% in Ontario and 15-16% in Quebec, they're going to get slaughtered. Nobody cares that rural prairie ridings are voting 90% CPC.
 
zeke said:
What's the deal with cons in Quebec again? Why are they such a nonentity?
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Because Quebec doesnt only vote on the left right spectrum.

The pool of voters they need won't vote for the english party when there is a nationalists party that is hyper french in the Bloc.

And even as a Nationalist bigoted group, they believe in lefty ideals like climate change, same sex marriage and income redistribution.

As such the conservatives are never going to get a lot of traction in quebec until they grab a leader from quebec who can counter that notion that the conservatives are the english party of the west
 
The block or whatever they call themselves now will probably run roughshod over everyone in quebec.
I expect the liberals to lose many many seats in Quebec this election.
And MZ you should care what rural or all of sask. is voting.
Same as Alberta.
I fully expect to see Canada divided up within the next 30 years.
I once had an economics professor tell us that Quebec wont be the first to leave confederation/Canada, it will be the provinces west of Manitoba that will be the first to leave.
And if any province does ever leave confederation/Canada, watch out because every single native nation will also leave with their land, to be recognized as their own country.

So ya, unfair representation by 2 provinces that totally control the whole country, is going to come to an end.
 
uncus said:
The block or whatever they call themselves now will probably run roughshod over everyone in quebec.
I expect the liberals to lose many many seats in Quebec this election.
And MZ you should care what rural or all of sask. is voting.
Same as Alberta.
I fully expect to see Canada divided up within the next 30 years.
I once had an economics professor tell us that Quebec wont be the first to leave confederation/Canada, it will be the provinces west of Manitoba that will be the first to leave.
And if any province does ever leave confederation/Canada, watch out because every single native nation will also leave with their land, to be recognized as their own country.

So ya, unfair representation by 2 provinces that totally control the whole country, is going to come to an end.
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Huh? The Libs are looking to essentially sweep Quebec. 45% has them to win 60 to 70 of the 78 seats in the province.
 
uncus said:
The block or whatever they call themselves now will probably run roughshod over everyone in quebec.
I expect the liberals to lose many many seats in Quebec this election.
And MZ you should care what rural or all of sask. is voting.
Same as Alberta.
I fully expect to see Canada divided up within the next 30 years.
I once had an economics professor tell us that Quebec wont be the first to leave confederation/Canada, it will be the provinces west of Manitoba that will be the first to leave.
And if any province does ever leave confederation/Canada, watch out because every single native nation will also leave with their land, to be recognized as their own country.

So ya, unfair representation by 2 provinces that totally control the whole country, is going to come to an end.
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Good luck to any of the land-locked Prairie provinces if they want to go it alone as their own separate countries. That really wouldn't go well for them. Especially if and when oil is no longer the red hot commodity it has been in this era of human history.

Any complaints by Westerners that they have no say, and that two provinces totally control the country are pretty idiotic too. We're less than four years out from a Calgarian Prime Minister and his Western-dominated Conservative Party having run the country for the better part of a decade.
 
As such the conservatives are never going to get a lot of traction in quebec until they grab a leader from quebec who can counter that notion that the conservatives are the english party of the west
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He'srightyouknow.gif


There's something of a cultural standoff between prairie westerners and the french. Quebec is a 4 letter word in Alberta, and the french love pissing in Alberta's diesel. Albertans tend to have an outsized opinion on what their level of influence should be within the confederation and don't understand why Ontario and Quebec run things. As I like to remind them:

% contribution of national GDP

Ontario - 39%
Quebec - 20%
Alberta - 16%

Albertans like to pretend that they put in the oil in the ground with their own hands. That they were fortunate enough that it was in the empty ass province they live in, is the only reason they even get a seat at the table. They're a moderately populated Saskatchewan without it.
 
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