New Canadian Politics Thread

[Altair]

last time they were relevant there?

Bernier would have been a interesting test case of whether the conservatives with a Quebecer at the helm could seduce the quebec Nationalist while maintaining the conservative federalist.

Last guy to do that was the smooth talking Irishman from Baie-Comeau in Mulroney. It might be for the best though, since Mulroney was completely unable to keep that Coalition alive and it lead to the rise of the bloc. I doubt bernier would have been any more successful long term.

 

[anne25]

Bernier’s stance on supply management would be problematic in Quebec.

 

[LeafGm]

Bernier’s stance on supply management would be problematic in Quebec.

Yep.

Quebec voters are the ones who pretty much handed the CPC leadership to Scheer, just to keep Bernier out.

So Bernier by no means would have been a Conservative saviour for the party in Quebec.

 

[Altair]

I still take the national numbers with a bit of a grain of salt for reasons I've mentioned before. The Conservative's vote efficiency is going to be ugly in this election. If they get 32% nationally, but 28% in Ontario and 15-16% in Quebec, they're going to get slaughtered. Nobody cares that rural prairie ridings are voting 90% CPC.

Trudeau cannot get to 170 using simply Quebec and Ontario.

Let's day he gets 25 in the Atlantic, 60 in quebec, and 70 in ontario.

Still needs 15 more.

So... Sweep the north, 3 more, needs at least 12 in BC or to grab a few in sask or Manitoba to limp across to 170. 171 would be better because of the speaker position.

Can't just write off the middle of the country.

 

[MindzEye]

Trudeau cannot get to 170 using simply Quebec and Ontario.

Let's day he gets 25 in the Atlantic, 60 in quebec, and 70 in ontario.

Still needs 15 more.

So... Sweep the north, 3 more, needs at least 12 in BC or to grab a few in sask or Manitoba to limp across to 170. 171 would be better because of the speaker position.

Can't just write off the middle of the country.

Thing is, your numbers don't make sense in the scenario I raised. Ontario went 80/33/8 (L/CPC/NDP) in the last election on 45/33/17 in the vote. If the CPC craters to the high 20's in Ontario (their poll numbers in Ontario are sliding hard), the Liberals probably don't lose (m)any of those 80.

So yeah, if the Liberals shed 10 seats in Ontario despite the CPC dropping 5-7% of their popular support from 2015, you can't complete ignore from Kelowna to Kenora. I mean, you still can mostly ignore than as long as you hold your dozen in BC and the far north.

Long story short, making in-roads to central Canada doesn't ****ing matter. It's the difference between a strong minority and weak majority, and you're never going to make them happy anyway, so **** it. If the CPC doesn 32% of the national, but 28% in Ontario, they're ****ed. Full stop.

 

[Altair]

Anyone else expect two kids from BC to elude the full might of the RCMP in northern Manitoba of all places?

 

[MindzEye]

Anyone else expect two kids from BC to elude the full might of the RCMP in northern Manitoba of all places?

Two kids who grew up in the bush and are relatively well equipped? Not surprised. Finding people in the wilderness who don't want to be found is really hard. The scary bit though is that the two kids are probably either out of food or shortly will be. They'll get desperate soon and might end up hurting someone else to get food.

 

[LeafGm]

Yeah, the Canadian wilderness is a pretty vast place.

It's also not particularly hard to head out into it carrying on your back enough gear and food to sustain yourself for at least a couple of weeks.

Though if these guys don't know what they're doing, it also wouldn't be hard for them to get lost or get into trouble out there.

 

[Altair]

Yeah, the Canadian wilderness is a pretty vast place.

It's also not particularly hard to head out into it carrying on your back enough gear and food to sustain yourself for at least a couple of weeks.

Though if these guys don't know what they're doing, it also wouldn't be hard for them to get lost or get into trouble out there.

Yeah, these kids could be dead.

I mean, there are really only three scenarios.

1) Hiding out in the woods somewhere living off the land and supplies.

2) Somehow escaped the area in another vehicle, could be anywhere by now.

3) Bear food.

 

[Altair]

Two kids who grew up in the bush and are relatively well equipped? Not surprised. Finding people in the wilderness who don't want to be found is really hard. The scary bit though is that the two kids are probably either out of food or shortly will be. They'll get desperate soon and might end up hurting someone else to get food.

Depends if they know how to hunt, set up traps.

I just find it crazy how many resources have been allocated into finding these two and so far not a wiff(assuming the York Landing thing was a false alarm)

 

[MindzEye]

Depends if they know how to hunt, set up traps.

I just find it crazy how many resources have been allocated into finding these two and so far not a wiff(assuming the York Landing thing was a false alarm)

I've worked with a pile of people from the island and I think basic bushcraft is pretty common knowledge there, but hunting without a long gun kind of isn't. Who knows though, it's definitely not the type of knowledge that is crazy or even unlikely for a kid raised on Vancouver Island to have.

But yeah, I'm not surprised. People who get lost in the wilderness and want to get found often don't make it out alive.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, these kids could be dead.

I mean, there are really only three scenarios.

1) Hiding out in the woods somewhere living off the land and supplies.

2) Somehow escaped the area in another vehicle, could be anywhere by now.

3) Bear food.

Yeah, pretty much. I don't expect them to be found alive, one way or another.

 

[Altair]

I've worked with a pile of people from the island and I think basic bushcraft is pretty common knowledge there, but hunting without a long gun kind of isn't. Who knows though, it's definitely not the type of knowledge that is crazy or even unlikely for a kid raised on Vancouver Island to have.

But yeah, I'm not surprised. People who get lost in the wilderness and want to get found often don't make it out alive.

What were the couple shot with?

 

[zeke]

I've worked with a pile of people from the island and I think basic bushcraft is pretty common knowledge there, but hunting without a long gun kind of isn't. Who knows though, it's definitely not the type of knowledge that is crazy or even unlikely for a kid raised on Vancouver Island to have.

But yeah, I'm not surprised. People who get lost in the wilderness and want to get found often don't make it out alive.

Fwiw Alone is the best show on television

 

[MindzEye]

What were the couple shot with?

I heard it was probably a 22

But the native band constable searched their vehicle apparently and didn't find a firearm, so it's entirely possible that it's been lost somehow. You've gotta get pretty ****ing close to anything bigger than a rabbit to kill it with a 22.

 

[uncus]

Fwiw Alone is the best show on television

Agreed.

Even with a rifle, hunting can be hard.

Having been a hunter for 40 years, my best guess is that one of them is dead (easier to travel alone than someone always whining) and the other is probably close to suicide if they are still in that area.
The bugs would be the biggest problem.
They cant have a fire because it would probably give away their location.
Water wouldnt be a concern.
Eating raw rabbit would probably make them sick as their bodies arent accustomed to uncooked meat, never mind any parasites.
My money is on at least one of them are dead.
And polar bears are ****ing huge and uber dangerous ..... never mind black bears who are amazing at at picking up a scent and tracing it back to its source.
I can use a honey burn and bring in alot of bears from miles away.
2 kids from BC playing Jeremiah Johnston, in an area they have no experience and without the proper equipment ..... dead boys walking.

 

[uncus]

I heard it was probably a 22

But the native band constable searched their vehicle apparently and didn't find a firearm, so it's entirely possible that it's been lost somehow. You've gotta get pretty ****ing close to anything bigger than a rabbit to kill it with a 22.

30 years ago, my ex and I were attacked by a black bear in ontario.
And from experience, I can tell you that they are fast ..... really ****ing fast.
A 22 may be able to keep the bear at bay for a while because of the gunshot noise but to shoot a sow with a cub or cubs or a boar ..... you may really piss them off.
Also, using the gun in anything other than an act of absolute life or death scenario, would give away their location.

A struggle with a hungry polar bear, that can smash through 2 feet of ice to get to a seal ..... no thanks. I would rather take my chances with the judicial arm of Canada.

If these two clowns are still alive, I betting they were wishing they were dead.

 

[WellPlayed]

Not so sure about fire or gunshots giving away their position.

The police don't seem to know where they are except for a general area which is a vast wilderness. Even if some random citizen happens to get lucky and is close enough to spot smoke from their fire or hear a gunshot, are they going to do anything? Gunshots and smoke from fires are normal up there. Shit, where I grew up in southwestern Ontario if you hear a gunshot, you just go back to what your were doing.

 

[uncus]

It isnt the cops I would be worried about.

It would be the bear claw outfit and other hunters in the area.

I have a feeling they would be all over this.

A hunter always loves tracking new game. Lol

 

[uncus]

I live in the north and when I hear gunfire, I always count and take note of the direction it came from.

Especially a month ago .... bear season.

I have 3 regular bears that come around my house, and they like to share in our gardens and apple trees lol.