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New Canadian Politics Thread

LeafGm said:
Would be a helluva thing if Trump both erased the CPC’s massive polling lead over the Liberals, as well as caused a collapse of support from the Bloc to the Liberals.

Hard to see how the CPC has a hope in hell in that scenario.
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I have never felt as more "sure thing" (no way the Cons can blow this lead) than back in 2011 when the Canucks went up 2-0 in the Finals.:p
 
I predict a good test for their model.

The swing toward the governing party been historic, and I don’t think Trump officially turning on Ukraine is going to slow the momentum.

Next update after tomorrow, Carney will be PM (might not yet have polls reflecting the effects.) Then it’s probably election time.
 
Hard to say without knowing how they weight....in theory all of the old polls falling out of their weightings are going to be the January stuff that all had CPC somewhere between +15 to +20. The newest polls they included in that projection were

LPC +2
CPC +3
CPC +4
LPC +1

and a weirdo Abacus poll that had CPC +12

The polls they'll update with are probably

Another abacus CPC +7...that's a pretty big shift in 6 days
CPC +3 Leger
LPC +1 Ekos
LPC +2 Ipsos
CPC + 3 Nanos


And we have to remember, that none of the hypothetical polls would be included. I think a fair guess is to stay that the 10 point gap in their projection is going to cut in half or so given that the last 2 weeks of polling average out to CPC +2.6%, and CPC + 0.7% if you remove those two Abacus polls.
 
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oscarheyman said:
I have never felt as more "sure thing" (no way the Cons can blow this lead) than back in 2011 when the Canucks went up 2-0 in the Finals.:p
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Those of us who are more familiar with Canucks history knew better. They could have gone up 3-0 and Luongo still would have found a way to blow it somehow.

I also knew damn well, after going through it in 1994, that win or lose, Canucklehead fans would riot again.
 

View: https://x.com/milly72810023/status/1895862389863825748

aMBVe0V.gif
 
No way he really said that

Edit: that’s what you get when you don’t click the link. Also, satire is dead.
 
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