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New Canadian Politics Thread

LeafGm said:
I don't think it's a given that Poilievre survives until the next election as CPC leader.

Or even that he survives 2025 in that position.
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Still very popular in Alberta. National polls don't mean anything in this regard for reasons I've gone over at length in the past, this is not one unified party. Non western conversatives taking a run at Polievre to install their own guy who is buddies with Carney will be seen in Alberta as yet another attack from the centre of the country on their politics and they'll circle around Pierre. The western conservatives will go Wild Rose before they let ontario conservatives dictate the direction of the party again.
 
MindzEye said:
Still very popular in Alberta. National polls don't mean anything in this regard for reasons I've gone over at length in the past, this is not one unified party. Non western conversatives taking a run at Polievre to install their own guy who is buddies with Carney will be seen in Alberta as yet another attack from the centre of the country on their politics and they'll circle around Pierre. The western conservatives will go Wild Rose before they let ontario conservatives dictate the direction of the party again.
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Good. A split like that would guarantee a Liberal government into the 22nd century.

Rachel Notley only became Premier during that brief moment in history when the Alberta Cons split and the Wild Rose Party became a thing. Once Kenney unified the right, the NDP were out on their asses. Nenshi's best strategy for winning is to drive a wedge i to the UCP and splinter it.
 
Wayward DP said:
ha, I may have been right here


View: https://x.com/cbcwatcher/status/1932119715717029889
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Thing is the 2% is kind of a weird number because it's tracked differently because of the way different countries do their accounting.

The biggest difference is between the rest of NATO and the US on social programs. There's a whole ton of US VA spending that goes on which is just to give US veterans the same standard of healthcare and living that is guaranteed to all citizens in most NATO countries with universal health care for veterans being a line item towards their military spending. If we did that here and used the health care spending on veterans as a military line item, it would be ~460K military veterans x ~9K....so just over 4.1 Billion dollars. If that were added to the Canadian Military budget, that would represent a ~15% increase in funding. There's also our veterans affairs budget (6.3B) which doesn't fall under the military budget like it would in the US.

Pile all of that shit under the military budget like it done in the US, and yeah, throw the coast guard in and our military budget probably doesn't look too far off our NATO contemporaries.

Which doesn't mean that we don't need new weapons programs obviously. But it just speaks to 2% being kind of a weird number that there is no unified accounting standard for, and also that by itself it isn't even sufficient to maintain any sort of real operational readiness unless your procurement is very, very efficient.
 
MindzEye said:
Still very popular in Alberta. National polls don't mean anything in this regard for reasons I've gone over at length in the past, this is not one unified party. Non western conversatives taking a run at Polievre to install their own guy who is buddies with Carney will be seen in Alberta as yet another attack from the centre of the country on their politics and they'll circle around Pierre. The western conservatives will go Wild Rose before they let ontario conservatives dictate the direction of the party again.
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Party split. PP isn't right wing enough!
 
MindzEye said:
Still very popular in Alberta. National polls don't mean anything in this regard for reasons I've gone over at length in the past, this is not one unified party. Non western conversatives taking a run at Polievre to install their own guy who is buddies with Carney will be seen in Alberta as yet another attack from the centre of the country on their politics and they'll circle around Pierre. The western conservatives will go Wild Rose before they let ontario conservatives dictate the direction of the party again.
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I dunno. Can't say I agree.

He's continued to slide in the polls post-election and really has shown zero contrition or desire to change things up at all since an absolutely historic bottling of what should've been a layup election. Hell, he hasn't even fired his ex-girlfriend Jenni Byrne as National Campaign Manager, in spite of the fact that she was the architect of his failed campaign (and Harper's in 2015) and she is loathed and despised within the party by pretty much anyone outside Pierre's inner circle.

If he doesn't convincingly win his by-election and then show signs of turning things around after getting back into parliament and if Carney avoids tripping on his own dick in any epic way, I fully expect the knives to come out for him. It's worth remembering that after the election, the CPC caucus did vote to adopt the provisions of the Reform Act, which means caucus can at any time choose to hold a vote of no-confidence in Poilievre and boot him out as leader, no matter what the screamers in Alberta might think. And after the last election, there are a lot more Eastern CPC MP's than there used to be.

Though one thing I do agree on is that if caucus does boot Poilievre out, or if he gets booted out at a leadership review, it could split the party. But I don't think that risk will stop the anti-Poilievre camp. Not when it's pretty damn clear that the path to actually getting back in government doesn't depend on making sure they keep all the potential Alberta PPC voters/Alberta separatists on-side with the party.
 
Sure, but what you're predicting there is the collapse of the unified right wing. Which yeah, is a major possibility. The right only stats united with Pierre as its head in the short and medium terms.

Thats a way better outcome than the one I suggested
 
MindzEye said:
Sure, but what you're predicting there is the collapse of the unified right wing. Which yeah, is a major possibility. The right only stats united with Pierre as its head in the short and medium terms.

Thats a way better outcome than the one I suggested
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I do think it's basically inevitable at this point, because I simply don't think Poilievre is capable of keeping the right united.

Pierre's leadership and the campaign he ran was a big, last-ditch attempt to keep Centrists, traditional eastern Progressive Conservatives, Western Reformers, Maple MAGAs and Convoy supporters/Covid truthers all together in one happy big tent, and it failed spectacularly when the presence of the latter groups inside the tent and Poilievre & Byrne's pandering to them caused large portions of the former couple of groups to flee out of the other side of the tent and either stay at home or hand their vote over to Carney.

I don't see how Pierre turns that around, especially while admitting to zero mistakes, keeping Byrne in place and with sliding poll numbers.
 
LeafGm said:
I do think it's basically inevitable at this point, because I simply don't think Poilievre is capable of keeping the right united.

Pierre's leadership and the campaign he ran was a big, last-ditch attempt to keep Centrists, traditional eastern Progressive Conservatives, Western Reformers, Maple MAGAs and Convoy supporters/Covid truthers all together in one happy big tent, and it failed spectacularly when the presence of the latter groups inside the tent and Poilievre & Byrne's pandering to them caused large portions of the former couple of groups to flee out of the other side of the tent and either stay at home or hand their vote over to Carney.

I don't see how Pierre turns that around, especially while admitting to zero mistakes, keeping Byrne in place and with sliding poll numbers.
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Pee-Pee can maintain control of the party (maybe) but the party is never winning a federal election so long as he is leading it.
 
trujaysfan said:
Straight? Or mixed?

I can't do rye straight but I can with Bourbon.... I just haven't in a while.
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Straight. I keep it in the fridge so i don’t need to water it down with ice.

It is dangerously smooth. I can drink it way too fast and way too much if I am not careful.
 
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