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New Canadian Politics Thread

It is a frustrating choice to be made. I just can't bring myself to support the NDP. To me they are a clone of the Wynne Liberals.

In my riding there are only two candidates with any chance of winning. The Liberals or the NDP. Normally I would support the candidate who I think would best serve the riding. I'm not sure if that would be the Conservative candidate (who has no chance of winning) or the recumbent Liberal. The NDP candidate is a nice guy but is so far to the left he makes Trump look like a liberal.

I may have to hold my nose and vote Liberal just to try to help lessen the NDP chances.
 
Lost in this is poor Justin Trudeau.

Started his term with no/one PC governments in all the land, all progressive, all more or less in line with his carbon pricing plan.

By then end he will need to ram a carbon tax down the throat of Alberta with Jason Kenny, Ontario with Doug Ford, Saskatchewan with Scott Moe and Manitoba with Brian Pallister, while fighting with BC over a pipeline.
 
Altair said:
Lost in this is poor Justin Trudeau.

Started his term with no/one PC governments in all the land, all progressive, all more or less in line with his carbon pricing plan.

By then end he will need to ram a carbon tax down the throat of Alberta with Jason Kenny, Ontario with Doug Ford, Saskatchewan with Scott Moe and Manitoba with Brian Pallister, while fighting with BC over a pipeline.
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Not to mention the fact that he started his term with a like-minded American President with whom he had a very public bromance.

Then one year later, Trudeau's government was locked into a cage for the next four years with a senile, rabid baboon.
 
LeafGm said:
Not to mention the fact that he started his term with a like-minded American President with whom he had a very public bromance.

Then one year later, Trudeau's government was locked into a cage for the next four years with a senile, rabid baboon.
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while this is true, I do think Trump will help Trudeau's approval ratings. Nationalism is good for incumbents.
 
Altair said:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Ekos- PC 39, NDP 35, Lib 19

Forum Research- PC 39, NDP 34, Lib 21

Mainstreet Research- PC 39, NDP 33, Lib 20

Research Co-PC 39,NDP 37, Lib 20

Ipsos- PC 39, NDP 36,Lib 19

Premier elect Doug Ford.
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A PC majority victory does seem inevitable at this point. The NDP numbers just haven't moved far enough.

My only faint hope now rests with the Etobicoke-North riding Doug's running in. A PC candidate hasn't won there since 1999, and the Liberal/NDP candidates routinely combine for more than 60% of the vote. If the anti-Ford vote in that riding really gets mobilized to get out to the polls and behind one of the two main non-Doug candidates, things could get interesting.

Though even if Doug lost that election, he'd probably still refuse to resign as PC leader, and would run again quickly in another riding.


Wayward DP said:
while this is true, I do think Trump will help Trudeau's approval ratings. Nationalism is good for incumbents.
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Yeah, electorally, Trump isn't the worst thing in the world for Trudeau. A completely irrational US President who's loathed in Canada also gives Trudeau's government a nice built-in excuse.

When it comes to actually governing though, it's not the best situation to be in.
 
LeafGm said:
A PC majority victory does seem inevitable at this point. The NDP numbers just haven't moved far enough.

My only faint hope now rests with the Etobicoke-North riding Doug's running in. A PC candidate hasn't won there since 1999, and the Liberal/NDP candidates routinely combine for more than 60% of the vote. If the anti-Ford vote in that riding really gets mobilized to get out to the polls and behind one of the two main non-Doug candidates, things could get interesting.

Though even if Doug lost that election, he'd probably still refuse to resign as PC leader, and would run again quickly in another riding.
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That is interesting. Has that happened before?

EDIT: Looks like it happened to Christy Clark in BC. They just got an incumbent in a Liberal riding to resign for an easy by-election win.
 
A good buddy of mine lives in Etobicoke north and is working hard to get out the NDP vote.

Polling is not what it used to be. Those polls have margins between the PC and NDP that could certainly be error, despite their claims about sampling error (i.e., MOE).

It's close enough that effecive mobilization could make a big difference.
 
The thing the polls can always have trouble with - and it will have a similar effect across all polls - is predicting a surge in non-"Likely Voters".

If a large number of infrequent or new voters come out, then all the current polling will be off by that amount, all in the same direction.

SO the question today is - are there enough voters who the polling models consider "unlikely voters" motivated to come out today clearly for one side over the other? Impossible to say, but if they do (and in today's volatile political environment that's a distinct possibility), then all the polls will be off by the same amount in the same direction.
 
zeke said:
The thing the polls can always have trouble with - and it will have a similar effect across all polls - is predicting a surge in non-"Likely Voters".

If a large number of infrequent or new voters come out, then all the current polling will be off by that amount, all in the same direction.

SO the question today is - are there enough voters who the polling models consider "unlikely voters" motivated to come out today clearly for one side over the other? Impossible to say, but if they do (and in today's volatile political environment that's a distinct possibility), then all the polls will be off by the same amount in the same direction.
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Canadian pollsters generally don't use likely voter models. I don't think any are using them for their top-line numbers, although they surely are for their predictions.

The issue with the polls are myriad. Importantly, they typically undersample people under 35 severely. They weight them up but that can just magnify error. If the youngns get out today, it could lay these polls to waste.
 
I've resigned myself to a PC majority. Felt it in my bones on my morning cycle.

(I think) I agree with zeke about the wild card being millenial voter turnout. But I don't think it will be enough.
 
zeke said:
how can they not? they have to model turnout somehow?
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They never used them until the last federal election and, from what I've seen, they abandoned them because they were so off (young people came out for Trudeau).

Not all of them are transparent, but they'll generally reveal the variables they use for weighting. All I've seen is straight-up demographic weighting.

Likely voter models are really problematic if voting behaviour is not consistent historically.
 
Wayward DP said:
I've resigned myself to a PC majority. Felt it in my bones on my morning cycle.

(I think) I agree with zeke about the wild card being millenial voter turnout. But I don't think it will be enough.
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for the record - there could be a surge in trumpy type infrequent voters surge for Ford as well.
 
BeLeafer said:
They never used them until the last federal election and, from what I've seen, they abandoned them because they were so off (young people came out for Trudeau).

Not all of them are transparent, but they'll generally reveal the variables they use for weighting. All I've seen is straight-up demographic weighting.

Likely voter models are really problematic if voting behaviour is not consistent historically.
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but they do weight the demographics according to their propensity to vote, no?
 
zeke said:
for the record - there could be a surge in trumpy type infrequent voters surge for Ford as well.
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ugh. you're right, but I don't want to think about that.

I can see old folks in non-urban ridings being highly mobilized for this election. and we know how they vote.
 
zeke said:
but they do weight the demographics according to their propensity to vote, no?
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Nope. They weight them to census data to ensure they're representative.

That said, I'm quite certain some of them massage the data to better reflect their expectations for turn out.

In the UK election that Cameron won, they had a Royal Commission on the polling and many of them admitted straight up to massaging data to be in line with each other. Polling is a swamp these days.
 
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