Hmm 338 today still has Libs with a clear majority
Not sure how to read these.
New Canadian Politics Thread
- Thread starter MindzEye
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Not sure how to read these.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Wayward DP
Well-known member
Mainstreet has consistently had the cons way higher than most others, for many weeks. We’ll know if they are right soon enough
fergy57
Well-known member
At this point I am very skeptical of the polls after the US election.
If the results of the Canadian election are way off of what the polls are predicting, it's pretty clear that while they may capture an accurate snapshot of people that bother to respond to them, they in no way reflect the opinions of those who don't answer.
If the results of the Canadian election are way off of what the polls are predicting, it's pretty clear that while they may capture an accurate snapshot of people that bother to respond to them, they in no way reflect the opinions of those who don't answer.
Slinger 48
Well-known member
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Weren’t the US polls accurate last November
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Close enough, yeah. They had Kamala's support nailed, but were off on Trump's by 2.5%. Overall, aggregate polling was off by about 3% which I'd argue is a pretty bad result (the point of aggregating is to be more accurate than individual polling MoE's, not to allow it the same ~3% margin as acceptable).
If the aggregate polling (Liberals +5) were as wrong as the US election was (Liberal +2) it would still be really close to a Liberal majority because of that pesky old vote efficiency issue the Conservatives have.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Fwiw, here's where I struggle with Mainstreet's results if anyone gives a fuck.
This is wildly, wildly out of step with PP's favourability results in any other poll or tracker I've seen.
Angus Reid, who will never be mistaken as a pro Liberal pollster currently has PP's favourability at 36% and it's never been higher than 40% in the history of their tracking. His unfavourable rating is at 60%, an all time high, as of their mid month update.
There has either been a massive shift in PP's favourability that only Mainstreet has picked up on, or they're oversampling the only demo he's popular in, men from 18-45
Also fwiw, Mainstreet's Mark Carney favourability is also a major outlier compared to other trackers/polls. They have Carney at 48-47 where he's commonly running +15 net rating according to everyone else.
This is wildly, wildly out of step with PP's favourability results in any other poll or tracker I've seen.
Angus Reid, who will never be mistaken as a pro Liberal pollster currently has PP's favourability at 36% and it's never been higher than 40% in the history of their tracking. His unfavourable rating is at 60%, an all time high, as of their mid month update.
There has either been a massive shift in PP's favourability that only Mainstreet has picked up on, or they're oversampling the only demo he's popular in, men from 18-45
Also fwiw, Mainstreet's Mark Carney favourability is also a major outlier compared to other trackers/polls. They have Carney at 48-47 where he's commonly running +15 net rating according to everyone else.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Like....this is from 5 days ago:
cultmtl.com
and keep in mind, Angus Reid is a conservative pollster.
Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre in net favourability by 39 points
Liberal Party leader Mark Carney leads Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre in net favourability by 39 points.
cultmtl.com
and keep in mind, Angus Reid is a conservative pollster.
worm
Well-known member
US polls were fairly accurate last election. #crosstabcope
LeafGm
Well-known member
So if we take the “don’t know” out of this, that’s 50% strongly/somewhat favourable to 45% strongly/somewhat unfavourable.
Yeah, that seems wildly wrong to me. The conservative seat count or percentage of the popular vote being decently higher than expected is something I can buy. But a majority of Canadians having a favourable opinion of Poilievre is something I can’t buy.
If the Cons win, it’s not going to be on the strength of Poilievre’s likeability.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Nope, this is pure #throwitintheaverages stuff.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
blkngldbabe
Well-known member
Well if any of us on this site can use forever its you, Noah.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
worm
Well-known member
Don't think I've ever liked a candidate as much as I'm liking carney for the times we are in
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
Why do so many Poilievre supporters look like unemployed mall Santa's?
View: https://x.com/Mitch6669/status/1913739017880739922
View: https://x.com/Mitch6669/status/1913739017880739922
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Something I noticed as well that was conspicuous in it's absence, but clever and probably represents a bit of a poison pill if the Conservatives latch onto it to complain about it's absence is O&G. There's a lot of structural reform in how projects would potentially get approved and completed, but no specific mention of energy aside from the electricy grid build out (which imo is a more future proof place for the feds to invest in). The core reason that this is smart imo is that all of these O&G projects need to start as private endeavours. There needs to be a private, market oriented need for each project imo. Us spending 10's of billions of tax dollars on "nation building" our O&G infrastructure only to have no willing customers on that side of the planet would be a fucking disaster and a massive gift to the private O&G companies we would be depending on to build and operate the infrastructure.
If there is a market case that enbridge is willing to make regarding pumping oil sands oil to the east coast, I'm down with the feds making the approvals process faster, with fewer provincial level hurdles, providing low/no interest funding for the project, etc. But what I'm not down for is any federal government spending 50-100B on oil infrastructure if there is no business case for it. There's lots of ways to make ourselves more durable and independent in the face of US stupidity that doesn't require massive west to east pipeline capacity. Pacific tidewater is so, so much closer and cheaper to access with customers very willing to buy it all off of us.
If there is a market case that enbridge is willing to make regarding pumping oil sands oil to the east coast, I'm down with the feds making the approvals process faster, with fewer provincial level hurdles, providing low/no interest funding for the project, etc. But what I'm not down for is any federal government spending 50-100B on oil infrastructure if there is no business case for it. There's lots of ways to make ourselves more durable and independent in the face of US stupidity that doesn't require massive west to east pipeline capacity. Pacific tidewater is so, so much closer and cheaper to access with customers very willing to buy it all off of us.