Tried to take a look at how the leafs have changed over the course of the year so far. I started with the thought that the "Klingberg Era" was a disaster, and also felt that the leafs finally started playing good team hockey at the tail end of that post-xmas losing streak against bottom feeders.
So i split the season so far into 3 segments as equal as I could make them 15gms-16gms-16gms, and then broke down how each player and role has done so far.
The forwards have had fairly regular roles over the course of the season so far. Kampf did start as the 3rd line C, before quickly being pushed down to the 4th midway through the 1st segment, and Holmberg only received more than 4th line usage during this last segment, but other than that the roles have been pretty consistent.
On defense the roles have changed a ton from segment to segment - the first segment saw Klingberg being used as the #3 dman, the second segment saw us drop Klingberg but then also lose Lilly and Gio to injury, and only in this 3rd segment have we seen a healthy leafs D with no Klingberg in it.
All the stats here are 5v5 stats only, except for SH% and SV% which are all situations.
- so the first segment was pretty much a disaster. The 1st line was playing pretty poor hockey tho still producing. The 2nd line was great. The 3rd line was a mess. The 4th line was an abomination. On defense Klingberg was also an abomination, and brought down everyone he played with. Combine that with injuries to McCabe and Lilly and there was way too much put on the top pair's plate. In net Woll was ok and Samsonov was unplayable. Still, somehow, through all of that, the team managed to win at a 98pt pace. That was lucky.
- the second segment was better but still not really good. The top line kinda fell apart, especially Marner, leading to them getting swapped around with the 2nd line... even though the 2nd line was still doing great. A big difference in this segment was that Nicky came in and the 3rd line settled nicely. Also helped that replacing Reaves with McMann midway upgraded the 4th line from laughable to just not very good. On defense, Klingberg disappearing was a huge positive. Timmins came in to replace most of his minutes and was pretty excellent. McCabe and Brodie started to round into form a bit. The Lilly and Gio injuries really hurt, but at the same time gave Benoit an opportunity that he's run with from day 1. Lagesson/Lajoie did fine as emergency fill ins too. In net Woll was just starting to get on a roll and then he went down to injury. Samsonov was still unplayable, but Jones came in and was solid. Still not great this segment but at least decent overall, and with our scoring that let us play at an elite 114pt pace even though we didn't really deserve that. Pretty lucky still in this segment.
- the third segment the team has finally got back to playing the right way, and the way we've played the past few years. The top line is back to controlling play at an elite rate, the 2nd line has never stopped doing that all year, and now the 3rd line has joined them in dominating, albeit in soft usage, and that's true whether it's been Nick or Holmberg there. And the 4th line has been playable, though Kampf sure seems to be a problem. On defense the top pair continues to hold its own in tough usage, and now with a healthy dcorps the other two pairs have been fairly dominant, regardless of which of those bottom-5 dmen have been in the lineup. The goaltending has been ok, but just ok. Unfortunately, as soon as we start playing the right way, our scoring has become a bit snakebit. But even that's not enough to explain them putting up only a 92pt pace in this segment. That's some bad luck there.
Overall I'd say the luck part of our win/loss record has probably balanced out over the year so far. But I'm pretty encouraged by our recent play despite the poor record. They're playing well now and if they can keep it up I think they'll get on a legit roll soon. (and they should keep it up, given that they've played at that kind of level for the past few years already).
The fact that Sammy has woken up and Woll is about to come back is even more encouraging. We'll probably lose Jones on waivers but i'm reasonably confident we'll have 2 usable goalies the rest of the way. Would be unlucky if we ran into more issues with Woll and Samsonov the rest of the way than we have so far.
On defense, hopefully we're done with all the injuries, but we have the depth to withstand one big injury, and even enough to handle two for a bit.
At forward, we've been a bit lucky healthwise, but with all of Robertson, Holmberg, and McMann stepping up as the season has gone by we have the depth to withstand some injuries there too. Even now, Jarnkrok's injury doesn't seem to be a big deal as it just lets both Robertson and Holmberg play in the 3rd line roles they deserve.
I know with this team this will likely bite me in the ass and maybe soon...... but I'm fairly sure the outlook is pretty good going forward.
And they have a nice chance right out of the gate to get on a roll - a pretty soft 8 game stretch leading up to the 55gm aka 2/3 mark of the season, with only one legit good team in there (DAL) and the rest mediocre to poor teams. I know they've done poorly against bad teams so far but if they keep playing like they have been recently they should take care of business.
