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OT: American Politics

Vegas isn't sure either! They have Biden as slightly more likely to drop out than not, but we'll call it a coin flip. I'm no political strategist so I don't know what the RIGHT thing to do is. But we do know that this isn't some made up narrative anymore that he may drop out. I thought and probably said mean things to ch1 before. I was wrong. It is clearly being considered as a legit option.

And the only opinion I have on this topic is that there is good reason for them to have this discussion. Yes, historically debates don't move markets but I don't recall a debate like that before nor do I recall a candidate drastically deteriorating before our eyes with democracy at stake. We have no priors and are venturing into the unknown. I understand the concern on their end and if they have some data that shows Kamala can win or if they truely don't believe Biden will be well enough to take them to the finish line... Then yeah things can happen.
 
I always considered yanking Joe out of the 2024 ball game as a possibility (unlike any other incumbent in my lifetime)

It became more likely as Biden’s approval numbers stayed in the mud (despite record employment and stock market) and ticked up again after the first debate.

The Dems proposing a June debate and trotting out guys like Newsom to debate Hannity suggest contigency plan discussions were part of their thinking (none of that shit happened during Obama’s first term )
 
Preston said:
Vegas isn't sure either! They have Biden as slightly more likely to drop out than not, but we'll call it a coin flip. I'm no political strategist so I don't know what the RIGHT thing to do is. But we do know that this isn't some made up narrative anymore that he may drop out. I thought and probably said mean things to ch1 before. I was wrong. It is clearly being considered as a legit option.

And the only opinion I have on this topic is that there is good reason for them to have this discussion. Yes, historically debates don't move markets but I don't recall a debate like that before nor do I recall a candidate drastically deteriorating before our eyes with democracy at stake. We have no priors and are venturing into the unknown. I understand the concern on their end and if they have some data that shows Kamala can win or if they truely don't believe Biden will be well enough to take them to the finish line... Then yeah things can happen.
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Just curious because I keep seeing this referred to and I just want to clarify - do you believe Vegas is a good indicator?
 
hockeylover said:
Just curious because I keep seeing this referred to and I just want to clarify - do you believe Vegas is a good indicator?
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I don't have enough ego in me to think I have an edge on Vegas odds. If I did I'd be betting big bucks on my own opinion with these things; it's a huge moneymaking opportunity but the people who actually move the odds are not regular old average Joe's. They're usually very smart people with lots of money who do this for a living. So I don't think they're necessarily "wrong " or "right" they just give a snapshot on probabilities for someone like me who doesn't really have the inside info to know what is actually going on.

Maybe some here do have an edge on Vegas, I'm not discounting that of course. You guys have a great track record. But for me it's a better indicator than whatever hunch I feel.
 
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CH1 said:
Newsom has a lot of negatives, so we’ll see.
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Yeah he's not perfect but better than Kamala. But Americans didn't vote for him. They voted for Biden. And if Biden drops out, they voted for Kamala to take over. I just don't understand how it would be anyone else.
 
Preston said:
I don't have enough ego in me to think I have an edge on Vegas odds. If I did I'd be betting big bucks on my own opinion with these things; it's a huge moneymaking opportunity but the people who actually move the odds are not regular old average Joe's. They're usually very smart people with lots of money who do this for a living. So I don't think they're necessarily "wrong " or "right" they just give a snapshot on probabilities for someone like me who doesn't really have the inside info to know what is actually going on.

Maybe some here do have an edge on Vegas, I'm not discounting that of course. You guys have a great track record. But for me it's a better indicator than whatever hunch I feel.
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They did have Trump in 2020 and Hillary in 2016 though, yes?
 
Preston said:
Yeah he's not perfect but better than Kamala. But Americans didn't vote for him. They voted for Biden. And if Biden drops out, they voted for Kamala to take over. I just don't understand how it would be anyone else.
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Whitmer another possibility
 
hockeylover said:
They did have Trump in 2020 and Hillary in 2016 though, yes?
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Not sure about 2020 but they're probabilities, not predictions. Odds don't predict that a certain event will happen, they assign likelihood of said event. And yes I believe they can do a better job of that than me. The market makers play with the data way more than I ever would. When I see that something has a 50% chance of happening (Biden dropping out) that doesn't mean I think it will happen. It means it might.
 
In other words, if I don't know anything about hockey and I see that the market makers say that the Leafs have the 7th best chance of winning the cup, I can get a decent idea on how good they are. Doesn't mean they will or won't win! But they are the 7th most likely to win as per the market makers.

I don't do that with hockey but in this case, since I don't have as much knowledge on the topic, I use odds to get an idea on the landscape.
 
I'd imagine the polls have a big influence on the odds though, and IMO, there are some significant problems w the crosstabs and real world election outcomes vs polling. But I've said all that already so let the chips land where they may I guess.
 
If the polls are completely fucked then yeah, the standard deviation widens and the potential outcomes become wide and diverse.

Fwiw Vegas has Trump as the favorite but not by all that much. I don't think anyone is gonna suddenly become a heavy favorite heading into this one.
 
If I'm running things....

As biden I tell the dems that I am going to focus on leading the world's problems right now and kamala Harris is the candidate with Gavin Newsom as the vp.

You tell the country you are going to focus on the US especially with roe and immunity...and Harris will continue my work and will beat trump with Newsom at her side
 
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