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OT: American Politics

CH1 said:
The mood in the country is not the same. (It never is) Even though I think Biden has had an incredible 4 years with great underlying metrics, people are reminded daily by their experiences that their purchasing power has been sapped and that they are losing ground on whatever hope they had in buying a home (or even renting a nice place)
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If Biden can't run on his record, you're basically saying that the age thing is entirely immaterial.
 
If you look at the polls on their face, I agree, they look pretty dire for Biden.

Here are my considerations and why I'm not totally sky is falling:
- crosstabs of every poll - there's something pretty off here. Insane shifts in demographics that just really defy historical norms and quite frankly common sense; counting very large percentages of non-voters in 2020 as being likely voters in 2024 despite record turnout in 2020 and them voting for Trump by a lot, etc.
- county by county breakdowns of suburban areas surrounding large metro areas in the most competitive states and calculating how many dems would just have to stay home even if Trump retained every single vote from 2020 - and this after overturning Roe, SCOTUS calling him King, being convicted of a felon, and Jan 6
- actual elections including the primaries we just had showing Trump bleeding significant support, even in closed primaries

I didn't make predictions in 2016 but these are the things I dug into hard in 2020 and ended up predicting Biden winning WI, PA, MI, AZ, Trump winning NC, FL and saying Georgia would be fascinating/close. And so I'm sticking with the same process. And yeah, I may end up being wrong but if anyone implies I'm just going off * v i b e s * or something, well that's just not true. Was here on election night doing the math county by county in AZ to show that Fox didn't call AZ prematurely.
 
MindzEye said:
If Biden can't run on his record, you're basically saying that the age thing is entirely immaterial.
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I’m saying the opposite. Most don’t care about his record all that much (the good: he’s a normal president, the bad: my groceries went up by a lot since 2020)

We’re not talking simply about age… “I wish this guy was younger” but more about “can I trust this guy won’t be senile next week”

The former is a gradient

The second concern is binary (and non negotiable)
 
hockeylover said:
And yeah, I may end up being wrong but if anyone implies I'm just going off * v i b e s * or something, well that's just not true. Was here on election night doing the math county by county in AZ to show that Fox didn't call AZ prematurely.
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I remember we both (mostly you) talked zeke off a ledge that night
 
hockeylover said:
And so I'm sticking with the same process. And yeah, I may end up being wrong but if anyone implies I'm just going off * v i b e s * or something, well that's just not true. Was here on election night doing the math county by county in AZ to show that Fox didn't call AZ prematurely.
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il_570xN.5433167018_17m1.jpg
 
Slinger 48 said:
Yeah, no doubt.

I could see him being manipulated like a puppet while he's thinking he is fully in charge.
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It already happened for 4 years. I mean this is a man who wouldn't spend more than 5 seconds worrying about someone getting an abortion for his entire life, suddenly getting rid of Roe v. Wade.

All the shit he says about immigrants, using language that really works on certain people, is all whispered into his ear by people like Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller. Going all the way back to the birther shit in '16.
 
I am afraid of the masses.

I'm going to step on some people here. sorry...but watching this trump stuff gave me a new-found understanding of how religion works, has always worked, and my fear is the mass-opiate is shifting, and those crazy people that have been fucking up the world in the name of god are going to do it again in the name of trump.

mass stupidity.
scary
 
I think I saw a quote from a Dem voter that basically said, "Biden is old, so is Trump, but I trust Biden's team more than Trump's.'"

And if you think that Democracy is on the line, why would you vote for the Dictator? It is not like Trump is a "typical" Republican.

The problems with this election are Americans are memory-holing Trumps first Term. Like shit was soooo much better back then.

But then the Roe decision, Separation of Church and State is falling, Crazy Project 2025 and this SCOTUS are reminders that the corpse of Biden is better for the Republic than a Dictator.

And the funny/hypocritical thing that I laugh at is: to people on the Right Ronald Reagan is the patron saint of Presidents. Wasn't he full of dementia for most of his second term? If it was ok for Reagan, it should be ok for Biden.

www.snopes.com

FACT CHECK: Did Ronald Reagan Have Alzheimer's Disease While in Office?

It has long been rumored that President Reagan suffered from Alzheimer's Disease years before it was diagnosed in 1994, five years after he left office.
www.snopes.com www.snopes.com

Trump was given a clean bill of cognitive health in January 2018 by White House physician Dr. Ronny Jackson, who had tested him for cognitive impairment and said he had no concerns about the president's mental fitness.
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Reagan's doctors said much the same thing while he was in office despite the former president's memory lapses and bouts of confusion in public, most visibly during the 1984 presidential debates and his 1990 Iran-Contra testimony. Incidents such as these led to speculation that he was undergoing a gradual mental decline that those around him didn't want to admit. A 1987 article in the New Republic posed the troubling question outright: "Is Reagan Senile?"


That was precisely what CBS News reporter Lesley Stahl was asking herself during a 1986 visit with a president she would later describe in her 2000 memoir, Reporting Live, as "shriveled" and verging on catatonic.


"Reagan didn't seem to know who I was," she wrote. "He gave me a distant look with those milky eyes and shook my hand weakly. Oh, my, he's gonzo, I thought." But a few minutes later, he snapped out of it and from that point on seemed perfectly fine. When asked, White House aides admitted to Stahl that they had witnessed similar episodes.
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