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OT: American Politics

Killer93 said:
So is Trump actually going to win this?
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Depends. This is how it looks right now according to 270towin

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270towin aggregates public polls, but they're a bit choosier about which polls they use. Still suffers from what imo all of the public polls suffer from right now.


imo it really comes down to this

- Democrats get their shit together and support their candidate (one of Joe or Kamala), and soon: Dems win
- Democrats fuck about and turn this into a clown show for a bunch more weeks and one of Joe or Kamala is still at the top of the ticket: Dems lose
- Democrats fuck around, go with an entirely new ticket, and are stuck dealing with GOP legal challenges about changing the ballots...and then lose those in SCOTUS, who drags it out as long as possible to make it an even bigger clown show for the Democrats: Dems get fucking mollywhopped into oblivion.
 
MindzEye said:
I'm so glad that Jon and the Daily show have spent the last 6 weeks super wisely btw, bothsidesing the fuck out of this all.
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Wanted to touch on this again. So, doing a live show right after the Republican convention, had so many goofy things from the convention to take shots at...even call the epidsode on youtube: "Trump, Hulk Hogan, & Kid Rock wrap up a weird, wild RNC"

and the first story they dig into is about Biden Leaving the race and they don't even start getting to this ridiculousness of the RNC or Trump's speech until almost the 5:00 mark of the episode and you have to stick around until 12 minutes in (of an 18 minute episode) before they touch on Trump's speech.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsioMx6M3UI&t
 
Dems are knifing themselves in the back.

I don’t think Trump will win, but his chances go way up if Biden is replaced.

Trump might not even agree to debate whoever takes over (why would he risk it?) so the fantasy that some youngster is going to wipe the floor with him is just that. Even if they do debate, there’s no record to focus on. Meanwhile the conversation will shift from Biden’s age to the new nominee’s deficiencies. Biden’s campaign team will all quit. Ground game will be a mess. Might miss out on ballots in OH and MI and who knows where else. Just win the election with Biden and then he can retire on Jan 21 if he wants. FFS.
 
manny said:
Dems are knifing themselves in the back.

I don’t think Trump will win, but his chances go way up if Biden is replaced.

Trump might not even agree to debate whoever takes over (why would he risk it?) so the fantasy that some youngster is going to wipe the floor with him is just that. Even if they do debate, there’s no record to focus on. Meanwhile the conversation will shift from Biden’s age to the new nominee’s deficiencies. Biden’s campaign team will all quit. Ground game will be a mess. Might miss out on ballots in OH and MI and who knows where else. What a shit show already.
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The only, only functioning path forward if Biden steps aside (or is politically defenestrated) is Kamala taking over the ticket. At least then you can air drop in a battleground governor to in theory lock down those votes, you don't lose access to the campaign team, you can still run on the #TeamBiden Presidential record, etc.

It's the only sane alternative.
 
zeke said:
even 538 went south on Biden today.
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They added a bucket of polls to their averages from PPP, a 1.4 of 3 rated pollster.

But yeah, Biden fatigue is going to be a thing eventually with all of the attention this is getting. It's turning (or has already turned) into a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
Biden went from 79 to 106 in like 3 months. Seems pretty unlikely to me he lasts to 86.

A vote for joe is a vote for Kamala and if dems like Kamala they’d have no issues turning up for joe.
 
MindzEye said:
They added a bucket of polls to their averages from PPP, a 1.4 of 3 rated pollster.

But yeah, Biden fatigue is going to be a thing eventually with all of the attention this is getting. It's turning (or has already turned) into a self fulfilling prophecy.
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the guy can't answer a question.
 
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