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OT: American Politics

AVG of Averages, heading into the DNC

National (Trying to use the ones that are "full field" including RFK, Stein, etc where available)

DHQ: D +4.0
538: D +2.9
Nate: D +2.3
ECON: D +2.3
RCP: D +1.5
VHub: D +1.4
270: D +1.1

AVG: D +2.2
 
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Battlegrounds


WI: D +3.3

DHQ: D +5.5
270: D +4.4
Nate: D +3.5
538: D +3.5
VHub: D +1.6
RCP: D +1.0


MI: D +2.1

Nate: D +3.1
538: D +3.0
RCP: D +2.0
270: D +2.0
DHQ: D +1.6
VHub: D +1.0


PA: D +1.4

270: D +2.3
VHub: D +1.6
Nate: D +1.6
DHQ: D +1.6
538: D +1.6
RCP: R +0.1


AZ: D +1.0

DHQ: D +2.0
270: D +2.0
Nate: D +0.9
538: D +0.9
VHub: D +0.6
RCP: R +0.2


NC: R +0.5

VHub: Even
Nate: R +0.2
538: R +0.2
DHQ: R +0.4
RCP: R +1.2
270: R +1.2


NV: R +0.8

Nate: D +0.5
538: D +0.2
270: R +1.2
RCP: R +1.3
VHub: R +2.0


GA: R +1.2

DHQ: R +0.6
RCP: R +1.0
270: R +1.0
538: R +1.1
VHub: R +1.6
Nate: R +1.6
 
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Wayward DP said:

View: https://x.com/jonathanchait/status/1825508022283640911
Click to expand...

from article:
While both columns suggested the most sympathetic possible motives for the outburst, neither identified the protesters’ actual beliefs. But the demonstrators do have a publicly articulated worldview. The Detroit action was organized by Students Allied for Freedom and Equality, the University of Michigan chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine.

SAFE, like other branches of SJP, takes an eliminationist posture toward Israel. It has employed violent rhetoric preceding Israel’s operation in Gaza. A SAFE rally in January 2023 featured calls of “intifada revolution,” smashing the “Zionist entity,” claims that Israelis “water their invasive species with Palestinian blood,” and so on. SAFE celebrated the October 7 attacks. In March, its president wrote on social media, “Until my last breath, I will utter death to every single individual who supports the Zionist state. Death and more. Death and worse.” The group sent masked protesters to the home of a Jewish regent in the middle of the night and vandalized his law office.

Would progressives have taken a cooler view of the demonstrators had they possessed a clearer view of their objectives? Some might. But others would not. Progressives tend to take a romantic view of left-wing protest.
 
Wayward DP said:
from article:
While both columns suggested the most sympathetic possible motives for the outburst, neither identified the protesters’ actual beliefs. But the demonstrators do have a publicly articulated worldview. The Detroit action was organized by Students Allied for Freedom and Equality, the University of Michigan chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine.

SAFE, like other branches of SJP, takes an eliminationist posture toward Israel. It has employed violent rhetoric preceding Israel’s operation in Gaza. A SAFE rally in January 2023 featured calls of “intifada revolution,” smashing the “Zionist entity,” claims that Israelis “water their invasive species with Palestinian blood,” and so on. SAFE celebrated the October 7 attacks. In March, its president wrote on social media, “Until my last breath, I will utter death to every single individual who supports the Zionist state. Death and more. Death and worse.” The group sent masked protesters to the home of a Jewish regent in the middle of the night and vandalized his law office.

Would progressives have taken a cooler view of the demonstrators had they possessed a clearer view of their objectives? Some might. But others would not. Progressives tend to take a romantic view of left-wing protest.
Click to expand...

I think most everyone understands that these are largely the same people who were for Bernie etc. and protest every DNC convention.

the palestine part of the issue is pretty much incidental tbh. it's just the leftist trend du jour.
 
1551R04.jpeg
 
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