• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

hockeylover said:

View: https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1831009262039928856?s=46&t=moEoHBmqH0l4NE3F_49J3Q

Doesn’t make sense to me.
Click to expand...


Nate put in a pretty heavy "convention bounce" expectation into his model, so the fact that Kamala's bounce has been smaller than his model expected (based on previous convention bounces) it's not liking Harris' current polling advantage. Debatable whether the unique election this year should have the same convention bounce expectation tho. And RFK dropout at the same time is a 1% push in the other direction too.

We'll see if his Convention Bounce metric is right or not in the coming weeks when it should be less and less of an input into his model.
 
zeke said:
Nate put in a pretty heavy "convention bounce" expectation into his model, so the fact that Kamala's bounce has been smaller than his model expected (based on previous convention bounces) it's not liking Harris' current polling advantage. Debatable whether the unique election this year should have the same convention bounce expectation tho. And RFK dropout at the same time is a 1% push in the other direction too.

We'll see if his Convention Bounce metric is right or not in the coming weeks when it should be less and less of an input into his model.
Click to expand...
Ah thanks. Found the tweet for others:


View: https://x.com/natesilver538/status/1829199791261397261?s=46&t=moEoHBmqH0l4NE3F_49J3Q
 
I just can't buy including polls from intentionally dogshit polling firms into your averages. It completely misses the point of why most of those pollsters exist. They're a right wing media operation to shape opinion, not report it, full stop. Just look at Nate's PA breakdown in that tweet thread. 5 recent PA polls, 1 from a legit pollster.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top