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OT: American Politics

hockeylover said:
Seems like 90% of the polls have leaned towards Kamala since the debate and then Patriot Freedom Polling run by a guy investigated for trying to steal an election will release a Trump +5
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true....but really the key is that they be transparent with their methodologies. as long as the polling aggregators are content with their methodology then it probably still has use to look at their results....because there's a lot of voodoo in polling and you have to insert assumptions one way or another and it's probably not a bad thing to have some trump-biased assumptions in there.
 
 
zeke said:
true....but really the key is that they be transparent with their methodologies. as long as the polling aggregators are content with their methodology then it probably still has use to look at their results....because there's a lot of voodoo in polling and you have to insert assumptions one way or another and it's probably not a bad thing to have some trump-biased assumptions in there.
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Except a lot of the hard GOP/MAGA polling firms aren't actually transparent with their methodologies.

538 has a transparency score that is separate from their pollster grading, on a 1-10 scale. Of the highly rated pollsters (2.5 or better), the vast majority are rated above 7.0, with most above 8.0 for transparency. Only 3 are below 5.0 among that group of 50 pollsters (Mason-Dixon, Remington & Data For Progress).

Here's the zone flooding cocksuckers transparency scores:

Trafalgar: 1.1
Insider Advantage: 3.3
Patriot Polling: 3.5
Victory Insights: 0.7
TIPP: 2.5
Fabrizio: 3.1
Fabrizio/Impact: 1.5
Fabrizio/McLaughlin: 4.0
Impact: 0.8
JL Partners: 4.2
OnPointPolitics: 2.8
 
MindzEye said:
Except a lot of the hard GOP/MAGA polling firms aren't actually transparent with their methodologies.

538 has a transparency score that is separate from their pollster grading, on a 1-10 scale. Of the highly rated pollsters (2.5 or better), the vast majority are rated above 7.0, with most above 8.0 for transparency. Only 3 are below 5.0 among that group of 50 pollsters (Mason-Dixon, Remington & Data For Progress).

Here's the zone flooding cocksuckers transparency scores:

Trafalgar: 1.1
Insider Advantage: 3.3
Patriot Polling: 3.5
Victory Insights: 0.7
TIPP: 2.5
Fabrizio: 3.1
Fabrizio/Impact: 1.5
Fabrizio/McLaughlin: 4.0
Impact: 0.8
JL Partners: 4.2
OnPointPolitics: 2.8
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I know I beat on this drum a lot. But when one side tells us that they're trying to bend polling narratives to their "side" for partisan purposes, and that data shows that they're doing this....believe them. Any accuracy they provide is a secondary effect and entirely accidental.

I do sympathize that this leaves a bit of a polling blindspot for where normal centre-right pollsters would provide balance to the Morning Consult's of the world, but when those pollsters basically don't exist anymore and they're replaced by firms who exist entirely to produce hard right wing narrative, the answer isn't to shrug our shoulders and "throw it in the averages".
 
MindzEye said:
Except a lot of the hard GOP/MAGA polling firms aren't actually transparent with their methodologies.

538 has a transparency score that is separate from their pollster grading, on a 1-10 scale. Of the highly rated pollsters (2.5 or better), the vast majority are rated above 7.0, with most above 8.0 for transparency. Only 3 are below 5.0 among that group of 50 pollsters (Mason-Dixon, Remington & Data For Progress).

Here's the zone flooding cocksuckers transparency scores:

Trafalgar: 1.1
Insider Advantage: 3.3
Patriot Polling: 3.5
Victory Insights: 0.7
TIPP: 2.5
Fabrizio: 3.1
Fabrizio/Impact: 1.5
Fabrizio/McLaughlin: 4.0
Impact: 0.8
JL Partners: 4.2
OnPointPolitics: 2.8
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Heh. Forgot that was a real name.
 
Wayward DP said:
Brynn has been consistently cynical and expecting Trump to win, so her comments here have some significance


View: https://x.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1838963135530639620


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660619735830915


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660624844493310


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660631374987517


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660636060062131


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660641470714101


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660648471052439


View: https://x.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1838660653223154136
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The GOP believing Covid wasn't real and it not impacting their ground game, while the Democrats backed way off on theirs is easily the best reason I've heard to date for Trump over performing polling in battleground states.
 
MindzEye said:
The GOP believing Covid wasn't real and it not impacting their ground game, while the Democrats backed way off on theirs is easily the best reason I've heard to date for Trump over performing polling in battleground states.
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that can explain 2020 for sure, but not 2016
 
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