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OT: American Politics

Basically most every polling average has it 276 D to 262 R. Even RCP has it there.

A clean sweep of swings gets D 319 or R 312. And the swings are all well within the margin of error.

Anything bigger either way is aggressive but some aren't crazy - smaller states like VA (13) NH (17), NB (1) - don't have much polling so the error bars are bigger there and have shown some signs of swinginess towards red. FL (30) has shown some swinginess to blue, is closer in polling and is way more important than all those others combined, but has much more polling in general so the polling numbers there should be a little more solid.
 
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Every single polling average - whether it uses all polls or just quality polls, agrees that at the moment it's D 276 - R 262. But it's fucking tight. the Dems still have leeway though - even a 1pt swing to Trump wouldn't be enough. It would have to be closer to a 2pt swing to trump for him to win.

Trump beat worse polling than this in both the last 2 elections, but dems have overperformed just as much since Roe.
 
But can dems outperform with Trump on the ticket? Sample size of just 2, but it has never been done before. More than enough reason to have some concern. I won't be comfortable till it actually happens for the first time and it's all over.
 
Preston said:
But can dems outperform with Trump on the ticket? Sample size of just 2, but it has never been done before. More than enough reason to have some concern. I won't be comfortable till it actually happens for the first time and it's all over.
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Isn’t this a different convo entirely tho? I was responding to every swing state plus VA and NH going red.
 
zeke said:
whether it uses all polls or just quality polls
Click to expand...

Eh, I looked under the hood of "quality polls" (All of the letter grades we see around are the Race to the Whitehouse's ratings)

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Fabrizio/Impact with a B+, TIPP with an A+, Cygnal with a B.

Nah, I'm good thanks. 538 has them ranked as a 1.7, 1.8, and 2.1 respectively. The average of those 3 is Trump +2.3. The average of the other 3 is dead even and the pollsters rate 3.0, 2.9, and 2.5

Keep scrolling down the list and insider advantage is in their "good poll" average as well. Hard pass. Recognize a narrative shaping op when you see one.
 
unfortunately most of these have very little polling. half of them we're only talking 1-3 polls so even using the word "average" is probably misleading.



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