• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

Wayward DP said:
that can explain 2020 for sure, but not 2016
Click to expand...

Poll weightings and missing on LV calculations. But 2016 was way within MoE in battleground states, it wasn't the polling failure it was sold as imo. Trump won razor thin margins exactly where he needed to, and Hillary had stopped campaigning in those states weeks before the election as well. I think he was something like 35-38% to win the election on the day before. That's uhhh...not zero.
 
MindzEye said:
Poll weightings and missing on LV calculations. But 2016 was way within MoE in battleground states, it wasn't the polling failure it was sold as imo. Trump won razor thin margins exactly where he needed to, and Hillary had stopped campaigning in those states weeks before the election as well. I think he was something like 35-38% to win the election on the day before. That's uhhh...not zero.
Click to expand...
2016 also I think underestimated enthusiasm among trumpees. hopefully pollsters have learned from that
 
MindzEye said:
Poll weightings and missing on LV calculations. But 2016 was way within MoE in battleground states, it wasn't the polling failure it was sold as imo. Trump won razor thin margins exactly where he needed to, and Hillary had stopped campaigning in those states weeks before the election as well. I think he was something like 35-38% to win the election on the day before. That's uhhh...not zero.
Click to expand...
Never went to Wisconsin at all even!
 
I think 2016 was a pretty unique set of circumstances though.

- The Comey/emails stuff right before the election.
- No one thought Trump would actually win so if they didn’t love the Hillary option they thought they could stay home or vote third party (and many more did vote third party than are likely to this time)
- There was still an attitude that Trump was bluffing. “He doesn’t actually mean [insert crazy thing]”, “the adults in the room will keep him in line, stop being hysterical”, “roe v wade will never be overturned, you’re fear mongering” etc.
- Jan 6/coup attempt was a line for a lot of people, even the people that said all those things at one point
 
Wayward DP said:
2016 also I think underestimated enthusiasm among trumpees. hopefully pollsters have learned from that
Click to expand...

It's more or less the same problem I mentioned regarding Florida this cycle. Short of some people claiming to have proprietary measures that they use (Bouzy, etc) that aren't specifically tied to previous election data, it's pretty fucking hard to identify a small wave that is contrary to previous voter patterns. All of your calculations are plugging in things like the composition of previous electorates, historic electorates, etc.
 
hockeylover said:
I think 2016 was a pretty unique set of circumstances though.

- The Comey/emails stuff right before the election.
- No one thought Trump would actually win so if they didn’t love the Hillary option they thought they could stay home or vote third party (and many more did vote third party than are likely to this time)
- There was still an attitude that Trump was bluffing. “He doesn’t actually mean [insert crazy thing]”, “the adults in the room will keep him in line, stop being hysterical”, “roe v wade will never be overturned, you’re fear mongering” etc.
- Jan 6/coup attempt was a line for a lot of people, even the people that said all those things at one point
Click to expand...

I just can't see how trump has as much support / enthusiasm this time. Jan 6, abortion, criminal, old, etc that didn't exist when he was the drain the swamp guy.

I think he gets destroyed compared to the polls and will just be left complaining about rigged elections.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top