• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

BG said:
Internal polling provided by Campaign Apprentice. Tell us good news, or "you're fired".
Click to expand...

That, and of course....what the fuck else do you expect him to say? If they have good data, he's going to confidently say that they're winning and if they have bad data he's going to confidently say they're winning.
 
1ryJWBU.png
 
axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/BradMossEsq/status/1846266806430060722
Click to expand...


Everything the people around him said about Biden being senile and unable to govern was projection. They know Trump is in this only for his ego to feel like he's the big boss, and they know they're going to get carte blanche to enact whatever politices they want in his name as long as he gets that ego pump of being the big boss. Keep pumping Donnie's ego, and regardless how fucking ghoulish your ideas are, he'll let you run with them if he wins.
 
MindzEye said:
I know my biases are obvious, but I'm not convinced they haven't impacted it. There's a growing bag of non poll based evidence here to be cautiously optimistic about

- Early voting historically favours democrats pretty heavily and we're seeing excellent D results so far...for example, here's PA

View attachment 22338


Democrats requested twice as many mail in ballots, and have returned their ballots at a much higher rate already.

- We keep seeing survey/polling answers suggesting that Nikki Haley Republicans have defected from Trump in significant numbers. Every #crosstab I've seen so far seems to expect the % of R's voting Trump to be more or less equal to the % of D's voting Harris. Either the Haley Republicans are lying, or the pollsters aren't cooking this into their math.

- A pretty durable staple of #crosstabs over the last 2 months has been Trump doing much better among young black men. That's maybe the single most unreliable demographic to get right in polling, and the single demographic historically least likely to show up a the polls.

- Actual voting results over the last few months lean heavily Democrat including fucking mayoral races in Alaska of all places. I can't help but think this is a likely blind spot that poll weighting just has wrong when we're seeing it so durably in real world examples, including early mail in voting here in the presidential election

- There is a pretty obvious and concerted effort to flood the zone by R affiliated pollsters. Polls aren't cheap, someone is paying for this and they're doing it for a reason. This isn't money you're spending if you're comfortable with where you think the race is.
Click to expand...
I hope you’re right but Imma be nervous till we get results and hopefully handle all the fuckery
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top