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OT: American Politics

Wayward DP said:
now how much of these disastrous appearances by dotard are gonna trickle down into the minds of normies and undecided voters? serious question...
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I know my biases are obvious, but I'm not convinced they haven't impacted it. There's a growing bag of non poll based evidence here to be cautiously optimistic about

- Early voting historically favours democrats pretty heavily and we're seeing excellent D results so far...for example, here's PA

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Democrats requested twice as many mail in ballots, and have returned their ballots at a much higher rate already.

- We keep seeing survey/polling answers suggesting that Nikki Haley Republicans have defected from Trump in significant numbers. Every #crosstab I've seen so far seems to expect the % of R's voting Trump to be more or less equal to the % of D's voting Harris. Either the Haley Republicans are lying, or the pollsters aren't cooking this into their math.

- A pretty durable staple of #crosstabs over the last 2 months has been Trump doing much better among young black men. That's maybe the single most unreliable demographic to get right in polling, and the single demographic historically least likely to show up a the polls.

- Actual voting results over the last few months lean heavily Democrat including fucking mayoral races in Alaska of all places. I can't help but think this is a likely blind spot that poll weighting just has wrong when we're seeing it so durably in real world examples, including early mail in voting here in the presidential election

- There is a pretty obvious and concerted effort to flood the zone by R affiliated pollsters. Polls aren't cheap, someone is paying for this and they're doing it for a reason. This isn't money you're spending if you're comfortable with where you think the race is.
 
hockeylover said:
seems like it's always the guys who never leave their state who shit talk europe the most.

and it's usually the guys who yap about women's highest calling being in the home who are broke ass beta bitches who can't support their own wives doing so.
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I've been to Europe three times now. Last time I was in Ireland visiting relatives (last year) one of the owners of one of the airbnb's lamented how they can't teach Gaelic in the locals schools anymore because they're too busy simply trying to teach the "refugees" english. A decade or two ago they place a renewed emphasis on keeping their dying language and culture alive by requiring it to be taught in schools. Having trouble now, though.


hockeylover said:
and it's usually the guys who yap about women's highest calling being in the home who are broke ass beta bitches who can't support their own wives doing so.
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I'm the type of guy who stays away from women who talk like this. Usually a very good indicator of not only looks on the inside but also the outside.
 
MindzEye said:
I know my biases are obvious, but I'm not convinced they haven't impacted it. There's a growing bag of non poll based evidence here to be cautiously optimistic about

- Early voting historically favours democrats pretty heavily and we're seeing excellent D results so far...for example, here's PA

View attachment 22338


Democrats requested twice as many mail in ballots, and have returned their ballots at a much higher rate already.

- We keep seeing survey/polling answers suggesting that Nikki Haley Republicans have defected from Trump in significant numbers. Every #crosstab I've seen so far seems to expect the % of R's voting Trump to be more or less equal to the % of D's voting Harris. Either the Haley Republicans are lying, or the pollsters aren't cooking this into their math.

- A pretty durable staple of #crosstabs over the last 2 months has been Trump doing much better among young black men. That's maybe the single most unreliable demographic to get right in polling, and the single demographic historically least likely to show up a the polls.

- Actual voting results over the last few months lean heavily Democrat including fucking mayoral races in Alaska of all places. I can't help but think this is a likely blind spot that poll weighting just has wrong when we're seeing it so durably in real world examples, including early mail in voting here in the presidential election

- There is a pretty obvious and concerted effort to flood the zone by R affiliated pollsters. Polls aren't cheap, someone is paying for this and they're doing it for a reason. This isn't money you're spending if you're comfortable with where you think the race is.
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Quite the dots you're connecting. As I've mentioned before, in two interviews with JD Vance he was shockingly calm and confident based on internal polling they have.
 
FlyGuy said:
I've been to Europe three times now. Last time I was in Ireland visiting relatives (last year) one of the owners of one of the airbnb's lamented how they can't teach Gaelic in the locals schools anymore because they're too busy simply trying to teach the "refugees" english. A decade or two ago they place a renewed emphasis on keeping their dying language and culture alive by requiring it to be taught in schools. Having trouble now, though.



I'm the type of guy who stays away from women who talk like this. Usually a very good indicator of not only looks on the inside but also the outside.
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oh no! uneducated brokeass MAGA cult member won’t associate with me! whatever will I do!

stop quoting me and fuck off then.
 
I don’t really get the whole throw it into the average thing. Isn’t that just bad data in, bad data out? Can’t you just do an average with highly ranked pollsters and leave out ones who are… being paid by Trump or have already helped Trump steal an election?
 
hockeylover said:
I don’t really get the whole throw it into the average thing. Isn’t that just bad data in, bad data out? Can’t you just do an average with highly ranked pollsters and leave out ones who are… being paid by Trump or have already helped Trump steal an election?
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Under normal circumstances, I get it. The assumption is that over a robust sample size the bad data in either partisan direction will balance out. But this kind of ignores what's going on now, where partisan republican polls are out numbering everything else combined (and even "non partisan" has a number of pollsters who are Republican operatives like Fabrizio, Hunt, etc in there...)

So when one side knows the industry norms, and is purposefully gaming the system, the response isn't just to ignore the gaming of the system and pretend nothing is happening.
 
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