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OT: American Politics

All the pool trackers I look in on regularly have Trump slightly ahead all of a sudden. I know pool watching is pointless now, but it definitely gives me a sinking feeling of doom. All the "on the ground" news has been positive for Harris lately, but it doesn't translate (yet).
 
Ultimately it has been mostly a toss up the entire time (Kamala may have peaked at what, a 60% chance of winning?) but definitely the Trump trend is real. And while the sample is only 2, there hasn't been an election where he doesn't outperform polling models. Being concerned is a normal rational human feeling I think.

The early voting data and all that anecdotal stuff is mostly nonsense. I see both sides celebrating over it so you can really view the data and create whatever narrative you want.
 
Preston said:

View: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1847368169083769191?t=-CaDJhokvBSU8IA3roSRLA&s=19


View: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1847368957998879067?t=7fmxvLbdJAb3N0TO3svwQg&s=19

Screenshot_1.png
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My core issue is still this:

1729283658508.png

They're missing who is and isn't "non partisan".

I mean, everything they say about how they're dilligently controlling this is great but the one stress test we've seen of their ability to control it in this environment was when a significantly lesser attempt to shift public narrative was attempted at the 22 midterms, and the industry got fucking embarassed by red wave predictions.

Long story short: The Republican bullshit machine would have packed their bags weeks ago and not spent the money on this if they didn't feel it was working. I'm pretty sure that the GOP is far more sophisticated at bullshittery than non data scientists like Nate (economist and baseball stats guy) and Elliott (history & polisci) are at sniffing it out.
 
I really believe that Trump believes he'll win. Why else would he waste critical campaign time in California and NY? He must have convinced himself that all the swing states are going his way
 
CH1 said:
I really believe that Trump believes he'll win. Why else would he waste critical campaign time in California and NY? He must have convinced himself that all the swing states are going his way
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Does anyone around Trump ever tell him bad news though? Everything we've heard about his administration suggested that those who gave bad news found their way out of his admin pretty quickly and were replaced by people who provided good news.
 
MindzEye said:
Does anyone around Trump ever tell him bad news though? Everything we've heard about his administration suggested that those who gave bad news found their way out of his admin pretty quickly and were replaced by people who provided good news.
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that's my point....the guy lives in a self delusional bubble

which I don't mind but he's also convinced tens of millions to share the delusion
 
MindzEye said:
Does anyone around Trump ever tell him bad news though? Everything we've heard about his administration suggested that those who gave bad news found their way out of his admin pretty quickly and were replaced by people who provided good news.
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If you listen to his interview responses...he says its a tight race...and then corrects himself by saying but we are winning

His mentioning of bringing back Joe is also a sign he's scared and nows the real numbers
 
I was remarkably confident in 2016 and 2020 but I have an alarming gut feeling of doom this time around. Mostly because Trump is mainstream now. I see the Maga bros in broad daylight pumping their man. It was hard for me to believe the amount of support that he received in the past because if you said anything positive about him back in 2016 and 2020, you'd be shamed and ridiculed and canceled.

But these days you see them everywhere, even in Canada. Much like ch1, I'm not going by data here, more by gut feel based on real life interactions. Especially from young to middle aged men.
 
CH1 said:
100% can see him trying to steal it....but can't see him pulling it off
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He’s an incompetent buffoon, but even buffoons are capable of learning from their mistakes. And I suspect they’ve been scheming this for years.

SCOTUS is the big wild card here too…
 
Preston said:
I was remarkably confident in 2016 and 2020 but I have an alarming gut feeling of doom this time around. Mostly because Trump is mainstream now. I see the Maga bros in broad daylight pumping their man. It was hard for me to believe the amount of support that he received in the past because if you said anything positive about him back in 2016 and 2020, you'd be shamed and ridiculed and canceled.

But these days you see them everywhere, even in Canada. Much like ch1, I'm not going by data here, more by gut feel based on real life interactions. Especially from young to middle aged men.
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Although there is some data to support the last bit

www.ctvnews.ca

Canadian support for Donald Trump higher than in last U.S. presidential election, survey finds

While more Canadians are signalling their support former U.S. president Donald Trump, the majority remains hopeful for a Democratic win.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca

In addition, the survey found that young men between the ages of 18 and 34 are split between wanting Harris to win the presidency over Trump.

"This differs from the situation in 2020, when younger men favoured Biden over Trump by a margin of two-to-one," states a release on the survey results.
 
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