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OT: American Politics

hockeylover said:
haven't heard of atlas intel at all i don't think
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Brazilian outfit, not a bad pollster but it's an RDR poll (polling recruitment by using online ads) they've both undersampled women in their LV math imo (50.8%) and have women going 51-47 to Trump. If that happens, yeah it's way over.
 
hockeylover said:
"it's been a pretty bad run of national polls" seems dishonest as fuck
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Preston said:
Have they really shifted the model that much tho? Was a coin flip before, is a coin flip now.
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I mean, when a poll gets that kind of weighting in his aggregate and it looks like an outlier 4-6 points outside of trendline, it's going to have some impact.

for example here's the 538 graph:

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Guess which poll Nate is giving the highest weighting to. It's the high water mark for all Trump polls in October and even Fabrizio hasn't been able to manufacture higher than a 49% for him.
 
MindzEye said:
I mean, when a poll gets that kind of weighting in his aggregate and it looks like an outlier 4-6 points outside of trendline, it's going to have some impact.

for example here's the 538 graph:

View attachment 22507

Guess which poll Nate is giving the highest weighting to. It's the high water mark for all Trump polls in October and even Fabrizio hasn't been able to manufacture higher than a 49% for him.
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Some impact, sure, and maybe he got a little lazy with that. But at the end of the day his model is pretty in line with 538 and most others out there that give Kamala a 45-50% chance of winning at this point. So while you may argue with his methodologies, at the end of the day the results aren't particularly unique.

You can argue between a 46% chance and a 48% chance (the difference between Nate and 538) but at the of the day, it's all the same conclusion. Toss-up election.
 
FlyGuy said:
This thread gives you the impression there is room for opposing ideas and discourse?
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All I'm going to say is this: when Harris fits Trump for a clown suit on November 5th, don't you go into hiding. You man up, show up, and take that un-lubed dick up your ass. Trump is not winning and he will die in prison where he belongs. So cope and seethe because the days of America being run by fascist chucklefucks are over. The Dems are going to win, and when they do they will give statehood to DC, expand the Supreme Court (or impeach and remove the corrupt MAGA ones) and the GOP will never win another election in your lifetime.
 
FlyGuy said:
Here, we have an opposing example of dismissing scandals as nothingburgers based on the our perception of motive. You see, we're not so different.
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This is a misrepresentation.

“Hunter’s laptop” was a nothingburger because nothing on it incriminated Joe of anything.
 
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