axlsalinger
Well-known member
I would agree this is the most likely scenario. But that is assuming history repeats itself, and that the pollsters learned nothing from 2022. I don't feel comfortable that either of these is true right now.
OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
Sexy point.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
He will also ask the kind of benign but deeply stupid questions that resonate with his listeners.
I think pollsters are missing how many registers republicans will vote blue. Making assumptions because they missed on trump beforr.
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
I think part of the point to go on the show is for him to bring up the dumb questions about stuff made up by maga and for her to bring truth/facts to the show. As I said before, he will put links up on his tv and watch to learn stuff. If she comes with receipts, it could go really well with her
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
A lot of the sampling models look goofy, full stop....and thats in the non partisan polls from firms trying to be accurate. Again, if they're right that women are going to make up a really small% of the electorate compared to recent elections...I'll bow down. I don't see the recent polling or reality based argument for that assessment though.
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
And it's actually called that on the menu.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
That's another thing, it's sure starting to look like Kamala's share of R's is going to go from previous estimated 5% up to 7-8%.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
My only concern, if I was a Kamala handler, is that I've never seen her really be great at answering questions without a bit of a speech attached, which imo is where the silly trump talking points about her come from. Rogan is a great platform if you're willing to sit down and converse like a human being. If you're answering questions with language straight out of your stump speeches, you're going to sound disconnected and elitist next to that caveman.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
It does seem likely that more Republicans than ever will either vote for Kamala (or a 3rd party) or stay home on Election Day. Even a few percentage points makes a massive difference. It's one of 2 reasons why I don't think the election will be close in the end (the other being enthusiasm and turnout from Democrat-leaning women).
Just hard to be too optimistic looking at these polls.
Hopefully, she can talk like a human vs lets says trump haha. Kinda sucks walz can’t go on with her (if she does go) - as he would be ammmmmazzzzing
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
As I've said. My heart is very concerned. My head, not nearly as much. The polls calling this a close race look primed to be really wrong. Which doesn't mean that Trump can't thread the EC needle again like he did in 2016, but let's be clear, if this election goes 50.1-49.9 Kamala, Trump probably wins 300+ EV's and that's what these polls are basically predicting nationally.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
I mean I generally do ignore them, or take with a massive grain of salt. It's just that in any normal timeline it's 60-40 and it's hard to understand how it could be this close even with a couple of points of fuckery baked in.Do what most people do - stop trusting polls. Go with the general vibes
But yet We Are not supposed to Expect Trump to be a Vindictive Asshole..
Which From his beginning he has been (Just look at his role in the USFL (1st) )
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, I think Walz would perform better on Rogan than Kamala would....unless as you mention, she really dialed down the politician speak and was the Kamala that we've seen in cooking videos for a few hours.
Aberdeen
Well-known member
It's annoying that she can't tap into that side of her more easily. It's very charming.
I'm sure if Putin Came for Alaska He'd (Vance) Be like sure have..