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OT: American Politics

FlyGuy said:
Not sure how the guy quoted can say that shows Dem very likely to win ED.
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if 50% of the R's election day voters in 2020 vote early, and there are no new R votes, then the R's are not actually any further ahead than they were in 2020.

if 30% of the Ds election day voters in 2020 vote early this year, vs. 50% in 2024, but the total number of early votes for the Ds is the same as 2020, then the Ds have a bunch of room for growth, provided enough of their voters show up on election day.

this is because they've grown their pool of voters, not just shifted when the previous voters vote.
 
Wayward DP said:
if 50% of the R's election day voters in 2020 vote early, and there are no new R votes, then the R's are not actually any further ahead than they were in 2020.

if 30% of the Ds election day voters in 2020 vote early this year, vs. 50% in 2024, but the total number of early votes for the Ds is the same as 2020, then the Ds have a bunch of room for growth, provided enough of their voters show up on election day.

this is because they've grown their pool of voters, not just shifted when the previous voters vote.
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Hold up. Dem’s are now saying they show up bigger on ED than EV?
 
FlyGuy said:
Just need very secure chain of custody.
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Yeah definitely. My layperson's understanding of the overall security measures suggests that it is though. Drives are loaded to machines with multiple witnesses signing off on the serial numbers of each, machines are kept in a secure location once loaded, drives are removed with multiple witnesses and SN checked before putting them together in a tamper resistent bag. If someone did defeat all of that and gain access to a drive (or multiple) they're encrypted. If they beat the encryption the drives are formatted to the proprietary file system that voting machine company has built which the attacker would either need a machine that runs, or have the ability to emulate that environment to be able to access the data on the drives....which my knowledge breaks down at this point, but I'd imagine they would have be able to not just alter the data, but do it in a way that doesn't log the results of the change, while doing it in a proprietary OS built to not allow that to happen.

and they would have to do all of that in between the time the drives were removed, and roughly when they were expected to arrive at the central registry that they were doing the vote tallying at.

And with all of that said....if we were going to see that type of election attack, you would think that the amount of hand counted recounts we've seen over the last ~20 years would have uncovered just one attempt to do this and we haven't. Because it's fucking hard and there are better/easier ways to influence an election.
 
Wayward DP said:
or, more simply - too many of the R voters already voted, and they don't have more coming. since a lower %ge of 2020 D voters voted, they can still grow their vote.
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So the D’s collectively decided to buck their voting trend of the last decade+?
 
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