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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Preston said:
Unlikely that the Derns 10-14 week thing holds up. Wide confidence interval there and it's deffo not equivalent to 5-9 weeks IMO!!! Seems to be a slight edge on Pfizer tho, but prolly not enough to matter!!

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VE vs BA.2 as expected pretty much the same.. Wide, overlapping confidence intervals again but some models predict that protection will be slightly better on BA.2, if anything. So these may hold up.

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ummm
what?


do i need another booster already?
 
But in reality... We need variant-proof intranasal vaccines if we ever want relative normalcy again. I'll give it a solid 3-5 years. In its current state and based on how these epidemics will continue to occur, this ain't normal. Need to get back to focusing on developing tools to suppress transmission.
 
Preston said:
But in reality... We need variant-proof intranasal vaccines if we ever want relative normalcy again. I'll give it a solid 3-5 years. In its current state and based on how these epidemics will continue to occur, this ain't normal. Need to get back to focusing on developing tools to suppress transmission.
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You're already seeing vaccine fatigue in a lot of people, I don't think it's going to get any better over time.
 
Preston said:
But in reality... We need variant-proof intranasal vaccines if we ever want relative normalcy again. I'll give it a solid 3-5 years. In its current state and based on how these epidemics will continue to occur, this ain't normal. Need to get back to focusing on developing tools to suppress transmission.
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3-5 years total, or from now?
 
UWHabs said:
You're already seeing vaccine fatigue in a lot of people, I don't think it's going to get any better over time.
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I mean, I know I am the minority, but this experience has had the opposite effect on me. I used to not bother with flu shots. Now I am queueing virtually to book an appointment.
 
UWHabs said:
You're already seeing vaccine fatigue in a lot of people, I don't think it's going to get any better over time.
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Oh yeah, right now people have vaccine fatigue because they just want to get on with life. And they will.

But soon they'll realize that closing your eyes and pretending that life is normal won't quite work. Especially when you start catching the shit 2-3 times a year... With all of the long-term effects people get from this I don't think anyone will want to continue that longterm. Allowing uncontrollable spread has never worked to resume normalcy and eventually people will learn that.
 
Wayward DP said:
I mean, I know I am the minority, but this experience has had the opposite effect on me. I used to not bother with flu shots. Now I am queueing virtually to book an appointment.
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I walked into the pharmacy for something and randomly asked if they had the flu shot. They did and I was vaxxed five minutes later. It was fab. And also my first flu shot.
 
Wayward DP said:
3-5 years total, or from now?
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I just guessed, but I was thinking from now. Hopefully a conservative estimate! We're just now learning about the power of what those vaccines can do.. It basically makes up for everything the intramuscular vaccines suck dick at; reduces infection + transmission amazingly well across all variants and coronaviruses included OG SARS1. BUT this method of delivery that was just released yesterday has only been tested on mice; the tests went AMAZINGLY well but as we all know, mice are not humans. Get going on monkeys next and then start trials on humans... Lots of work to do. These things take time. Unknowns: how long does immunity from this last? Is it safe to boost 2-3 times per year if that's needed? How quickly can you scale the products? Will this even have the same impact on humans? Etc. Unfortunately if you ever want normalcy again, transmission needs to be reduced substantially and this is the only thing that could theoretically do it.. And it would open up the doors to all sorts of vaccines for other viruses too!

There ARE some intranasal products in trials right now but they're moving at a snails pace and they use different mechanisms than the ones discussed yesterday. Folks are not as confident that those will be the solution, but hey maybe they can help too!
 
Preston said:
Oh yeah, right now people have vaccine fatigue because they just want to get on with life. And they will.

But soon they'll realize that closing your eyes and pretending that life is normal won't quite work. Especially when you start catching the shit 2-3 times a year... With all of the long-term effects people get from this I don't think anyone will want to continue that longterm. Allowing uncontrollable spread has never worked to resume normalcy and eventually people will learn that.
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Yeah, the problem now is that I can go out and get the shot, but that means nothing for me returning to "live my life". If getting another jab meant I could go ignore lockdown messes, I think that would go a long way.

I think right now the big problem is schools are running into their troubles. Once they get the next vaccine levels approved and suddenly all kids 2+ have their shots, and all kids in the 5+ group get their 2nd doses, that will go a long way. My gut says that if they can get schools back to some sort of routine without them being constantly under fire, that will help general society. But with them being the cluster**** that they are, that's definitely not helping anything.
 
UWHabs said:
Yeah, the problem now is that I can go out and get the shot, but that means nothing for me returning to "live my life". If getting another jab meant I could go ignore lockdown messes, I think that would go a long way.

I think right now the big problem is schools are running into their troubles. Once they get the next vaccine levels approved and suddenly all kids 2+ have their shots, and all kids in the 5+ group get their 2nd doses, that will go a long way. My gut says that if they can get schools back to some sort of routine without them being constantly under fire, that will help general society. But with them being the cluster**** that they are, that's definitely not helping anything.
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The thing is we'll eventually get out of this wave but then what? Do we really think that's the end of the pandemic? Coronaviruses continue to mutate and even without that mutation, reinfections are common. The waves will keep coming, schools will continue to be under pressure, etc. It's not sustainable. I wish it was, but it isn't.

Definitely get out and enjoy the lulls in between waves but this will continue to have the same patterns of a few waves per year until we find a way to break transmission. So if people are good with dealing with that for the next 3-4 years, by all means have at it. If an intranasal vaccine comes to the market in 2024 that is proven to break transmission and stop infections across multiple variants with a strong safety profile, do we think the majority of people will say no? Personally I think most people will get sick of the reinfections at some point because it will take a toll on our bodies.

And hey, before omi, they worked great for 4-5 months, and we lived a fairly normal life at least in Ontario. Then omi came and they told us to get boosted and we knew that within a couple of months that protection would drop below 50%.. So we know there is little incentive there compared to what we had in the summer.

But after another 2, 3, 4 years of this, just wait for the lineups if we truly get that bulletproof intranasal product rolled out.
 
Preston said:
Oh yeah, right now people have vaccine fatigue because they just want to get on with life. And they will.

But soon they'll realize that closing your eyes and pretending that life is normal won't quite work. Especially when you start catching the shit 2-3 times a year... With all of the long-term effects people get from this I don't think anyone will want to continue that longterm. Allowing uncontrollable spread has never worked to resume normalcy and eventually people will learn that.
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you have more faith in ppl than me
 
worm said:
you have more faith in ppl than me
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For those living completely normally under conditions of a virus that is THIS infectious, you are likely to get at least 2 infections per year. By the time a viable Gen 2 vaccine comes out it may be 2024. That's a lot of infections. Some may be mild. Others won't be.


TLDR: They'll learn.
 
Preston said:
For those living completely normally under conditions of a virus that is THIS infectious, you are likely to get at least 2 infections per year. By the time a viable Gen 2 vaccine comes out it may be 2024. That's a lot of infections. Some may be mild. Others won't be.


TLDR: They'll learn.
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i hope people are learning from this current wave
even the hermits are catching it

but there is also a truck convoy right now

people are stupid
 
worm said:
i hope people are learning from this current wave
even the hermits are catching it

but there is also a truck convoy right now

people are stupid
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This is the group that we'll never get on board. But it's a very very very small, but vocal minority. Don't be fooled by the narrative out there that there is this huge growing movement of antivaxxers.
 
Don't bet against science. We'll eventually win and it will be because of science. We're just not there yet. In fact we're further away than we were when Delta was around. We'll get there tho. Some really cool shit happening behind the scenes.
 
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