Deckie007
Well-known member
Is it Al?
OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
Well-known member
Randal
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
So you're saying that we should trade him to someone from 1985 who still judges players by those stats?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Eh...when a "2 yr" sample has fewer PA's than a normal 1 yr sample, it kind of loses some of it's value as a predictive tool for future performance:
Last 3 calendar years:
Gurriel: 1036 PA, 115 wRC+
Grichuk: 1463 PA, 103 wRC+
Last 3 "seasons"
Gurriel: 859 PA, 113 wRC+, 2.9 WAR (2.2 WAR/650)
Grichuk: 1185PA, 97 wRC+, 1.6 WAR (0.9 WAR/650)
So yeah, I guess you can place outsized importance on an early Gurriel slump if you really want to, but when he regresses (which appears to be in progress) you're going to look silly.
Grichuk is a 4th OF Zeke, and Gurriel has pretty clearly shown himself to quality starter. That you've resorted to "30hr/100rbi" and "Gurriel can't run routes" and resort to small sample fuckery in an attempt to show otherwise makes it pretty clear that you know this too.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
UWHabs
Well-known member
Both are useful players, and both can play about 2/3 of the time since Springer still takes a bunch of time off as a DH, and Lourdes can probably fill in at 1B when Vlad needs a day off the field.
There isn't a huge gap between them, so really it should just be whoever woke up on the right side of the bed that morning that starts, and you'll often still have both around the lineup anyways. Grichuk has done well enough to earn his time, but Gurriel at this point definitely has the higher potential.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Except we've already established that he's not a poor LF. You just continue to assert that he is because throwing the ball isn't important to you for reasons.
and Grichuk isn't remotely a passable CF. He's been the 3rd worst CF in MLB (min 300 innings) this season after being a bottom 5 CF last season as well. Being able to play CF poorly isn't a skill.
He's a decent enough 4th OF, but that's about the extent of him. Gurriel is a starting calibre corner OF, full stop.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Both are useful players, and both can play about 2/3 of the time since Springer still takes a bunch of time off as a DH, and Lourdes can probably fill in at 1B when Vlad needs a day off the field.
There isn't a huge gap between them, so really it should just be whoever woke up on the right side of the bed that morning that starts, and you'll often still have both around the lineup anyways. Grichuk has done well enough to earn his time, but Gurriel at this point definitely has the higher potential.
Gurriel has provided over double the value over the last few seasons. It's really not that close.
manny
Well-known member
Gurriel would probably be as good or better than Grichuk in CF if they played him there. Faster, better arm, also limited in some ways. Grichuck gets zero points from me for playing a bad CF, and negative points from WAR calculations.
Grichuk is hitting .219/.235/.354 in the last 28 games. This is not even a particularly bad slump for him, he goes through month-long stretches like this several times every season.
Also, "on pace for 30HR", lol. Looks good on the back of a baseball card, but Grichuk is on pace for 24 BB and yet another OBP well under .300. He is what he is. Bat not good enough to play corner OF, defence not good enough to play up the middle. If he gets hot again, trade him for whatever you can get. Reallocate the resources to something useful.
Grichuk is hitting .219/.235/.354 in the last 28 games. This is not even a particularly bad slump for him, he goes through month-long stretches like this several times every season.
Also, "on pace for 30HR", lol. Looks good on the back of a baseball card, but Grichuk is on pace for 24 BB and yet another OBP well under .300. He is what he is. Bat not good enough to play corner OF, defence not good enough to play up the middle. If he gets hot again, trade him for whatever you can get. Reallocate the resources to something useful.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
zeke's weird mancrush on Grichuk is strange. he's no Colby Rasmus though, that's for sure
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
That money would look so much better in the bullpen. We haven't even touched on the contracts.
Gurriel: 27 yrs old, Signed for 2 more years after this at 3.1 million, with arby eligibility in 2024. Free agency in 2025 at 31 yrs old.
Grichuk: 29 yrs old (30 in August), 2 more years at 10.4 million.
Better, younger, and 7+ million dollars cheaper.
UWHabs
Well-known member
He's fine as a 4th or 5th OF option. Ignoring contracts, I'd certainly rather have him around than Davis. And given Springer still needs some time at DH, and Grichuk can play a decent enough corner OF defense, I don't mind keeping him around and letting him play when the other guys need breaks. But unless if he's on a hot streak, he probably shouldn't start every day now that the other guys are back.
Pwner
Well-known member
The hate on Grichuk here is kinda misplaced - which is understandable as he was a Shatkins Trade and then Re-signing, so ofc he is bad ;p (this is a joke).
But in reality, Grichuk is a fine, AVERAGE, MLB Outfielder. Probably more in line of a 4th Outfielder on a contending team. Or a fine (just fine) Outfielder on a rebuilding team.
He can play ALL the outfield positions and is a PLUS defender in RF. I look at him as Poor Mans Kevin Pillar (way less Defense, better hitting with more power, both can't get on base to save their lives).
And his contract isn't even that bad - maybe bad for a cheap org like TB, but not for a mid-market team. He is currently at 0.9 WAR, and I bet he gets to 1.5 at the end of this year - more power, and probably more time in RF were he excels. He just won't have a high OBP, not bad for an 4th OF or 8th in the batting order. Grichuk just shouldn't be hitting against good RH Pitchers - this is why Dickerson was brought in/ Jays had high hopes for Tellez.
If you go by 1 WAR = 8 mil in FA, then his contract is right in line for what he is.
Non-Adjusted Cost of a Win in Free Agency: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/
But in reality, Grichuk is a fine, AVERAGE, MLB Outfielder. Probably more in line of a 4th Outfielder on a contending team. Or a fine (just fine) Outfielder on a rebuilding team.
He can play ALL the outfield positions and is a PLUS defender in RF. I look at him as Poor Mans Kevin Pillar (way less Defense, better hitting with more power, both can't get on base to save their lives).
And his contract isn't even that bad - maybe bad for a cheap org like TB, but not for a mid-market team. He is currently at 0.9 WAR, and I bet he gets to 1.5 at the end of this year - more power, and probably more time in RF were he excels. He just won't have a high OBP, not bad for an 4th OF or 8th in the batting order. Grichuk just shouldn't be hitting against good RH Pitchers - this is why Dickerson was brought in/ Jays had high hopes for Tellez.
If you go by 1 WAR = 8 mil in FA, then his contract is right in line for what he is.
Non-Adjusted Cost of a Win in Free Agency: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/
| Offseason | Cost of a Win in Free Agency |
|---|---|
| 2018 | $8.1 M/WAR |
| 2019 | $6.8 M/WAR |
| 2020 | $8.0 M/WAR |
zeke
Well-known member
ah yes the projections are famous for not weighting things properly.
first you try to mock me for looking at bad stats (which were only an amusing observation), then you ignore the good comprehensive stats that actually matter. poor flailing ME.