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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

manny said:
Gurriel would probably be as good or better than Grichuk in CF if they played him there. Faster, better arm, also limited in some ways. Grichuck gets zero points from me for playing a bad CF, and negative points from WAR calculations.

Grichuk is hitting .219/.235/.354 in the last 28 games. This is not even a particularly bad slump for him, he goes through month-long stretches like this several times every season.

Also, "on pace for 30HR", lol. Looks good on the back of a baseball card, but Grichuk is on pace for 24 BB and yet another OBP well under .300. He is what he is. Bat not good enough to play corner OF, defence not good enough to play up the middle. If he gets hot again, trade him for whatever you can get. Reallocate the resources to something useful.
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not surprising you guys would try and focus on the amusing 30hr/100rbi observation, while deliberately ignoring me noting repeatedly that his wrc+ is wildly better than Gurriel's, and matches him both in recent data and in projections.

Gurriel was always overachieving his underlying numbers, and the regression this year was expected and unsurprising. And before you get too excited about his 131wrc+ in 86pa in June, note that he's now got a -11wrc+ in 14pa in July.

Fangraphs' Combined Rest of Season projections:

Grichuk 104wrc+, 1.7war/650
Gurriel 103wrc+, 1.7war/650

Truth is both are borderline starters, and in the absence of having one good starter it's good that we have two borderline ones for depth. Neither one is guy you want to count on for a permanent spot in the lineup.

And stop complaining about money. The jays have plenty of money.
 
Pwner said:
The hate on Grichuk here is kinda misplaced - which is understandable as he was a Shatkins Trade and then Re-signing, so ofc he is bad ;p (this is a joke).

But in reality, Grichuk is a fine, AVERAGE, MLB Outfielder. Probably more in line of a 4th Outfielder on a contending team. Or a fine (just fine) Outfielder on a rebuilding team.

He can play ALL the outfield positions and is a PLUS defender in RF. I look at him as Poor Mans Kevin Pillar (way less Defense, better hitting with more power, both can't get on base to save their lives).

And his contract isn't even that bad - maybe bad for a cheap org like TB, but not for a mid-market team. He is currently at 0.9 WAR, and I bet he gets to 1.5 at the end of this year - more power, and probably more time in RF were he excels. He just won't have a high OBP, not bad for an 4th OF or 8th in the batting order. Grichuk just shouldn't be hitting against good RH Pitchers - this is why Dickerson was brought in/ Jays had high hopes for Tellez.

If you go by 1 WAR = 8 mil in FA, then his contract is right in line for what he is.

Non-Adjusted Cost of a Win in Free Agency: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/

OffseasonCost of a Win in Free Agency
2018$8.1 M/WAR
2019$6.8 M/WAR
2020$8.0 M/WAR
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I agree, he's a poor man's Kevin Pillar, a 4th or 5th OF. Pay and play him accordingly.

As for free agent value, it's nice to think that when you have terrible contracts on the team, but Grichuk was not a FA. They signed him when he still had multiple years of control left, and he has returned significantly negative value each year so far.

His WAR this year is 0.9/0.5 depending on which source you prefer. It was higher in April. Much lower at some point in May. If Grichuk ends the season on a hot streak, he might get to 1.5, but if he ends it on a cold streak, he might end up near 0. You do not get what you pay for.
 
manny said:
I agree, he's a poor man's Kevin Pillar, a 4th or 5th OF. Pay and play him accordingly.

As for free agent value, it's nice to think that when you have terrible contracts on the team, but Grichuk was not a FA. They signed him when he still had multiple years of control left, and he has returned significantly negative value each year so far.

His WAR this year is 0.9/0.5 depending on which source you prefer. It was higher in April. Much lower at some point in May. If Grichuk ends the season on a hot streak, he might get to 1.5, but if he ends it on a cold streak, he might end up near 0. You do not get what you pay for.
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Well according to Spotrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/randal-grichuk-15765/, he was going to be a FA in 2021, so the Jays bought out 2 years of FA. So you know, they DID have to give him FA Money. And he was coming of a 2.5 WAR season, so reasonable you would expect that he would give you at least 1.5 WAR/season the rest of the way if not more. And there was probably upside to him as well.

He has not shown that, but he is a 4th OF on a good team. And boy, small sample size Grichuk is a good player. You just don't want to play him everyday in CF, or even everyday in the OF on a good team. Good thing Shatkins realized that and brought in Springer...
 
Pwner said:
The hate on Grichuk here is kinda misplaced - which is understandable as he was a Shatkins Trade and then Re-signing, so ofc he is bad ;p (this is a joke).

But in reality, Grichuk is a fine, AVERAGE, MLB Outfielder. Probably more in line of a 4th Outfielder on a contending team. Or a fine (just fine) Outfielder on a rebuilding team.

He can play ALL the outfield positions and is a PLUS defender in RF. I look at him as Poor Mans Kevin Pillar (way less Defense, better hitting with more power, both can't get on base to save their lives).

And his contract isn't even that bad - maybe bad for a cheap org like TB, but not for a mid-market team. He is currently at 0.9 WAR, and I bet he gets to 1.5 at the end of this year - more power, and probably more time in RF were he excels. He just won't have a high OBP, not bad for an 4th OF or 8th in the batting order. Grichuk just shouldn't be hitting against good RH Pitchers - this is why Dickerson was brought in/ Jays had high hopes for Tellez.

If you go by 1 WAR = 8 mil in FA, then his contract is right in line for what he is.

Non-Adjusted Cost of a Win in Free Agency: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/

OffseasonCost of a Win in Free Agency
2018$8.1 M/WAR
2019$6.8 M/WAR
2020$8.0 M/WAR
Click to expand...

Only thing there is that if we're using fangraphs cost of a win, why aren't we using fWar instead of bWar? Grichuk's fWar is 0.5, not 0.9 (which is his bWar)
 
Pwner said:
Well according to Spotrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/randal-grichuk-15765/, he was going to be a FA in 2021, so the Jays bought out 2 years of FA. So you know, they DID have to give him FA Money. And he was coming of a 2.5 WAR season, so reasonable you would expect that he would give you at least 1.5 WAR/season the rest of the way if not more. And there was probably upside to him as well.

He has not shown that, but he is a 4th OF on a good team. And boy, small sample size Grichuk is a good player. You just don't want to play him everyday in CF, or even everyday in the OF on a good team. Good thing Shatkins realized that and brought in Springer...
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In baseball, you don't pay FA money for arbitration years. So, no, that calculation still doesn't apply. In 2019 they gave him $5M, which is about what he would have earned if he went to arbitration (maybe a bit less to be fair). In 2020, he got $13M, whereas he would have been a very strong DFA candidate if not for the extension.

The Jays gave Grichuk MORE in terms of both term and AAV than it would have taken to sign a comparable FA at the time, even though they still had multiple years of control. That's the issue. To be clear, I'd complain less if Grichuk wasn't overpaid by $40M.

Imagine if San Fran had thought after 2017 that Joe Panik needed a long-term extension because he had been really good a few years ago and had some versatility, so they should probably buy out his remaining arb years as well as a few years of FA. And then force-fed him AB because he was capable of hot streaks. That's basically Randal Grichuk.
 
manny said:
In baseball, you don't pay FA money for arbitration years. So, no, that calculation still doesn't apply. In 2019 they gave him $5M, which is about what he would have earned if he went to arbitration (maybe a bit less to be fair). In 2020, he got $13M, whereas he would have been a very strong DFA candidate if not for the extension.

The Jays gave Grichuk MORE in terms of both term and AAV than it would have taken to sign a comparable FA at the time, even though they still had multiple years of control. That's the issue. To be clear, I'd complain less if Grichuk wasn't overpaid by $40M.

Imagine if San Fran had thought after 2017 that Joe Panik needed a long-term extension because he had been really good a few years ago and had some versatility, so they should probably buy out his remaining arb years as well as a few years of FA. And then force-fed him AB because he was capable of hot streaks. That's basically Randal Grichuk.
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I don't think he's been quite 40M overpaid. His 2019 salary was probably roughly in line with expectations, so no real complaints there. 2020 and 2021 are probably in the 5-8M overpay, and we still have another couple years at 10M per year, which again are a little high given he's not exactly the sort of guy most teams want to give a lot of control to. In raw value, he'll probably be worth ~20-30M over the course of his contract, which pays him 50M, so closer to 20-30M overpaid, give or take depending on exactly how you value the $/win numbers.

And yeah, that's the flaw with him. He's a useful piece overall, but he was paid to be more than just "useful", so will forever be a disappointment. I think the club was hoping he'd be more like a 2-2.5 WAR guy than the 1-1.5 WAR guy that he's been in that time. He hasn't been bad enough to really want to eat the whole deal to send him away, but he hasn't been good enough to warrant a 600+ PA season.
 
I do think Grichuk might have enough value as a "30HR/100RBI" guy with moderate versatility that someone will take a fair portion of the contract. Especially if they deal him while he's on a hot streak.

Or trade him for another troubling contract that probably won't return full value but fills a position of need.
 
That's a good trade. Spare body with some maybe upside in the stick at a position we just don't need for a decent looking middle rotation arm and an overage minor league starter who is probably ready for a look and/or maybe a transition to the pen.

see, I can admit when this clownshow does something right
 
Good trade, IMO. Richards will contribute immediately. Francis is a fringey SP prospect, but he might be one of those guys whose stuff could play up in the bullpen. Tellez is not a loss, I see him as organizational depth, but best of luck to him in Milwaukee. He has a couple of good tools, you never know.

Here's fangraphs on Francis:

25. Bowden Francis, SP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Chipola JC (FL) (MIL)
Age25.2Height6′ 5″Weight225Bat / ThrR / RFV40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
FastballSliderCurveballChangeupCommandSits/Tops
50/5055/5545/4545/5050/5592-94 / 95
Francis has had statistical success through the upper minors by relying on plus command of three fringe pitches. He added a slider for this year and now has four distinct offerings, of which the slider has quickly become the best. It’s also hard, which is important because Francis’ curveball is a low-70s rainbow, averaging about 73 mph, while the slider has been up to 87 and sits a bit below that. He has a power pitcher’s style with soft stuff, but Francis feel to pitch is excellent and I think he can stick toward the back of a rotation.
 
Tellez was awful this year but I did not mind him previously.
He does not really serve much purpose on this team moving forward.
 
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