OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
Pwner
Well-known member
Talk about disingenuous... oy
Ryu was elite when signed, Kikuchi was an upside play, Green was an elite reliever before he got injured.
Don't you want them to sign these types of players?
Pwner
Well-known member
No, that is what I have been arguing the whole time, thank you for catching up. Hence the whole "this board loves Offense, but hates Defense". And also, "WAR is WAR is WAR"
Like I mean, don't throw stones, man.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Holy fuck.
Okay...regarding Chapman. He racks up his WAR playing a high importance position while being comfortably above average at the plate.
Last year he was 11th among MLB 3B in wRC+, 12th in 2022 (despite the higher wRC+). So your assertion that he doesn't rack up his WAR at the plate is just wrong. His stick is a significant reason he's been a top 5 3B overall. Obviously his elite tool is the glove (2nd in defensive value among 3B in MLB over the last 3 seasons combined), but his stick has been good as well and contributes a good chunk of his overall value. He's 10th in total offensive value as it pertains to WAR over the last 3 seasons. 2nd with the glove, 10th with the stick. That's just really good overall which leads to him being the 7th most valuable 3B in MLB over the last 3 seasons.
There's no reason that his combination of glove and stick should decline significantly over the next ~3 seasons. Fangraphs work on the aging curve gives us a rough estimate that he should see about a 20% decline between his age 30 and age 34 seasons. So a 3.5 WAR at 30 should adjust out to a 2.8 WAR in his 34 yr old season. If we were to sign him to something like 3/60 and he delivered roughly 8-9 WAR over that period, well that's absolutely fine. The devil in the details with WAR is that not all WAR is created equal. When WAR calculations are done and we hear "1 WAR = X Million dollars" what doesn't get discussed in that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc wins should actually be worth progressively more than the previous win, because those performances are progressively more rare. If you're looking for an inefficiency in the MLB market, it's that front offices seem willing to pay ~10 million for a 1.5 WAR guy, but then don't want to pay 30+ for a 4.5 WAR guy.
Regarding IKF. The problem is that 1.5 WAR is the top of the mountain for him, it's not getting any higher (bRef's dwar is flat out broken). That's what you're getting at 3rd if you're fortunate and to get there you have to give a 80 wRC+ stick 550-600PA which is lunacy.
It's not a matter of whether it's "worth" 7.5 million, it's whether a team that fancies itself a contender should have such a limited player be so important to whether or not they win. Then there's that whole thing about him coming off of a 0.2 WAR season which is what he looks like when actually used as the super utility player I've been told he was signed as, and not just a dedicated 3B/SS that he's been used as from 2020-2022.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
- Ryu was 33, if you want to play the aging curve game with Chapman, well fuck....
- Signing Kikuchi at 30 to 3/36 is a sign that you're not developing starters in house
- Aging curves Part II with Chad Green. Especially coming off of TJ, being 33 this season and being the 12th highest paid reliever in MLB.
No, I don't want them to sign that type of player. I don't want them to sign 33 yr old's to top dollar contracts and 30 yr old back of the rotation arms to multi year deals because they had 10 good starts in the 2nd half. I want them to develop talent in house, trade for proper impact players somewhere in their prime when they come available and when gaps do come up fill in with cheap. We don't do any of that, and it shows in the results.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
You keep repeating this like it's true....Most of us wanted two main moves this summer. Move Varsho to CF to maximize his defensive value, and put a stick in LF (the least important defensive position on the field) and re sign Chapman.
Those don't sound like the kind of things people who hate defence would suggest.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
They jumped the very lukewarm market, again.
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
Well-known member
How about that training complex though?
Or their sports medicine clinic.
State of the art.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Would I be able to interest you in some images of a stadium renovation? How do you feel about a beer garden in the outfield bleachers?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Chapman/IKF feels very Edwin/Kendrys Morales-ish to me, yeah.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
axlsalinger
Well-known member
In this Dunedin diner, folks are quick to agree that defense is half the game. But they're adamant that management shouldn't value it, because a guy turned down a job offer 8 years ago.
No hit Chappy may not get that deal , Bellinger took what he could and teams said FU to Boros and 200 mil
axlsalinger
Well-known member
I think we can all agree on this point, it's just not that crazy of an idea to spend an extra million or two on IKF with the uncertainly around Chapman. He can provide high-end defense at 3B when needed, and if you do end up signing Chappy (or trade for someone else) he can be a super-elite utility infielder who's a little overpaid but still valuable.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
This is a lot of negativity for negativity's sake. Everyone was crying about them being too cheap, Ryu was the first FA they landed and he was pretty good for us. Kikuchi has worked out.
In-house I agree SP has been a position of weakness in the org but they did draft Manoah and now have Tiedemann, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez as a pretty decent group of 6-8 options (obviously they bought Yariel as a wild card but could easily reach $8m in value).
You can absolutely quibble about the cost of Chad Green, but there is a chance he's a really high-end relief pitcher. He's done it before. You compared him in a previous post to Reynaldo Lopez, the cost is virtually the same, and so is the upside.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, there's no other reason to be negative about this management group other than "negativity's sake".
Because Rogers was, for years. Do you not remember the time where they told management that if the fans showed up, they would invest? Then AA did his thing, the fans showed up and they didn't invest?
They brought in a 33 yr old to what everyone was referring to as a rebuild. He then provided 5 WAR total (some of that is Covid's fault, but only some) for 80 million dollars. That's not pretty good for us. That's a bad signing.
1.9 WAR over two seasons for 26 million dollars is a bad investment as well imo. He had a solid enough season as a mid rotation guy last year, and there's some hope that it wasn't just a weirdo career season.
I'm hopeful Manoah bounces back, and I'm hopeful Tiedemann becomes a thing before our next rebuild but as of right now that's a pretty sparse "but". Manoah has provided 50 starts of high quality. That's basically what we have to show for almost a decade of Shatkins draft & develop in the rotation. That's kind of fucking abysmal.
Eh, Lopez is 3 years younger and not coming off of TJ.
Jays need some young talent in the system to produce on the cheap
Manoah getting back to respectability is huge this year