OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
anne25
Well-known member
Wow. Some actual good news.
manny
Well-known member
Yeah, well Francis is pencilled in as their number 5. He could take a step back from last year and still be pretty serviceable there.
The main issue is that if you don’t get 25-30 starts out of all of Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Scherzer and Francis, the lack of depth is going to sting.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Depth starters actually solid this year, Jake Bloss, Yariel Rodriguez, Eric Lauer, and eventually Alek Manoah.
Deckie007
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manny
Well-known member
Combined -0.7 WAR from that group last year.
Lauer didn’t pitch in 2024 but was -1.0 WAR in 2023.
Manoah and Bloss were also both terrible in AAA last year.
Disagree on that being “solid depth.”
axlsalinger
Well-known member
wait, you think every team has 3-WAR starters waiting in AAA?
Bloss is a very good prospect. Yariel looked very good at times last year. Manoah was an All-Star in 2022. Lauer has been a mediocre but serviceable starter before. It's very solid depth.
In fact, I only posted that because it's been a real weakness of this team the last couple of years.
manny
Well-known member
I like Yariel as well. As the next guy up, he’s likely to get 20 starts this year so we’ll see how he holds up.
Not much behind him though, unfortunately.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
I'm pretty high on Bloss. We'll see, of course, but he should be a solid enough 4-5 starter, maybe even a 3 eventually. Though this may not happen right away (he was just drafted in 2023 in the 3rd round).
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Good hope his arm explodes
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Good GFY
Judge ...snap that calf please
Stanton ...tennis elbow in both arms in camp ....lets go get tennis elbow and screw up your roid injection
axlsalinger
Well-known member
zeke
Well-known member
with the cuts starting to happen, we're entering the more relevant part of spring training where performance might start to matter a little bit more.
today's lineup tells me the team is getting down to business, and this could easily be an opening day lineup:
* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. RF Santander
* 4. LF Springer
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. C Kirk
* 7. DH Wagner
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Loperfido
Obviously a healthy Varsho kicks Loperfido out of that lineup, but i think this tells us that Loperfido is still their 1st choice in CF if Varsho can't go, at least for now.
Wagner obviously not earning a starting spot so far, but 18pa in ST is obviously not gonna be a decision maker for them. He's still their first choice to win that spot at the moment.
The Gimenez ahead of Kirk thing seems like something they want to try. Which is fine. Even if it's likely that Wagner and Kirk outhit Gimenez and Springer in the end.
And as meaningless as ST stats are, we can still have some fun with them. I remember reading a fangraphs article some years ago where they analyzed ST stats and the only ones that actually seemed to have any carrying power over into the regular season were BB% and K%, so keep that in mind when looking at these stats.
We have 8 guys guaranteed spots to start IMO:
* SS Bichette 27 R: 27pa, 3.7b%, 14.8%, .381bip, .346avg, .192iso, 134wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 25pa, 8.0b%, 12.0k%, .368bip, .348avg, .217iso, 150wrc+
* RF Santander 30 S: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .214avg, .286iso, 133wrc+
* LF Springer 35 R: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .154avg, .077iso, 91wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 23pa, 4.3b%, 21.7k%, .375bip, .286avg, .143iso, 103wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 25pa, 16.0b%, 16.0k%, .375bip, .350avg, .150iso, 147wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 24pa, 0.0b%, 12.5k%, .444bip, .435avg, .304iso, 209wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 16pa, 12.5b%, 6.3k%, .182bip, .308avg, .692iso, 209wrc+
Everybody doing pretty well really.
And then the actual battles for the last 5 spots:
* C Heineman 34 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .273bip, .250avg, .000iso, 80wrc+
* C Sanchez 28 R: 13pa, 15.4b%, 23.1k%, .125bip, .091avg, .000iso, -1wrc+
* C Bethancourt 33 R: 11pa, 0.0b%, 45.5k%, .167bip, .091avg, .000iso, -65wrc+
This probably isn't en actual battle. I think Heineman has the spot sealed. Just not quite taking it for granted yet.
* OF Roden 25 L: 24pa, 20.8b%, 0.0k%, .357bip, .438avg, .500iso, 284wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 24pa, 25.0b%, 12.5k%, .231bip, .235avg, .235iso, 153wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 22pa, 0.0b%, 27.3k%, .533bip, .409avg, .227iso, 170wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 20pa, 0.0b%, 15.0k%, .500bip, .474avg, .211iso, 188wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 19pa, 5.3b%, 21.1k%, .286bip, .222avg, .222iso, 75wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 13pa, 15.4b%, 30.8k%, .143bip, .091avg, .091iso, 16wrc+
Roden the clear standout at camp so far. Just killing it at the plate in every way. Also interesting enough defensively to get looks in CF - if he can do that then it makes the bench decisions much easier.
Lukes also having a very strong start. Berroa and Straw have shockingly good lines too but you can see from their BBs and Babip that it's probably nothing too interesting. Loperfido not great at the plate so far but only a hit or two away from being decent. Clase was injured to start.
* UT Schneider 26 R: 26pa, 30.8b%, 19.2k%, .500bip, .389avg, .333iso, 234wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 22pa, 9.1b%, 31.8k%, .500bip, .350avg, .200iso, 150wrc+
* UT Stefanic 29 R: 21pa, 19.0b%, 19.0k%, .385bip, .313avg, .000iso, 110wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 18pa, 11.1b%, 33.3k%, .444bip, .313avg, .250iso, 145wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 18pa, 0.0b%, 27.8k%, .308bip, .222avg, .167iso, 48wrc+
Schneider also having a killer start to his spring, 2nd only to Roden. The only glitch on his line here is the babip. I don't know if there's anything he can do to win a spot to start the year but he's doing everything he can.
Barger and Orelvis having very nice springs too but still lots of swing and miss and very high babips. Nothing here to make you think they both couldn't use more time in AAA.
Stefanic is probably a useful bench piece if the others can't step up.
Wagner the only real dissappointment so far in ST for the hitters. If it was an open competition (it;s not) he would be on the back foot right now.
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 24pa,12.5b%, 12.5k%, .235bip, .200avg, .100iso, 76wrc+
The only guy here that can actually play SS, which gives him an opening. But with Clement and Gimenez likely able to handle backup SS duties it's not a huge opening.
It's still true that the big decisions really come down to whether they feel they need to keep "true" CF and SS fielders on the bench this year, or if they think Clement/Gimenez and Springer/Roden/Lukes are good enough to backup in a pinch.
I would say that Wagner is still a prohibitive favorite to make the squad. Roden and Schneider are making it very hard to cut them. The last two spots could probably be best filled by Lukes and Stefanic, but they could choose guys with more defensive chops than them instead.
today's lineup tells me the team is getting down to business, and this could easily be an opening day lineup:
* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. RF Santander
* 4. LF Springer
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. C Kirk
* 7. DH Wagner
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Loperfido
Obviously a healthy Varsho kicks Loperfido out of that lineup, but i think this tells us that Loperfido is still their 1st choice in CF if Varsho can't go, at least for now.
Wagner obviously not earning a starting spot so far, but 18pa in ST is obviously not gonna be a decision maker for them. He's still their first choice to win that spot at the moment.
The Gimenez ahead of Kirk thing seems like something they want to try. Which is fine. Even if it's likely that Wagner and Kirk outhit Gimenez and Springer in the end.
And as meaningless as ST stats are, we can still have some fun with them. I remember reading a fangraphs article some years ago where they analyzed ST stats and the only ones that actually seemed to have any carrying power over into the regular season were BB% and K%, so keep that in mind when looking at these stats.
We have 8 guys guaranteed spots to start IMO:
* SS Bichette 27 R: 27pa, 3.7b%, 14.8%, .381bip, .346avg, .192iso, 134wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 25pa, 8.0b%, 12.0k%, .368bip, .348avg, .217iso, 150wrc+
* RF Santander 30 S: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .214avg, .286iso, 133wrc+
* LF Springer 35 R: 18pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .200bip, .154avg, .077iso, 91wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 23pa, 4.3b%, 21.7k%, .375bip, .286avg, .143iso, 103wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 25pa, 16.0b%, 16.0k%, .375bip, .350avg, .150iso, 147wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 24pa, 0.0b%, 12.5k%, .444bip, .435avg, .304iso, 209wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 16pa, 12.5b%, 6.3k%, .182bip, .308avg, .692iso, 209wrc+
Everybody doing pretty well really.
And then the actual battles for the last 5 spots:
* C Heineman 34 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .273bip, .250avg, .000iso, 80wrc+
* C Sanchez 28 R: 13pa, 15.4b%, 23.1k%, .125bip, .091avg, .000iso, -1wrc+
* C Bethancourt 33 R: 11pa, 0.0b%, 45.5k%, .167bip, .091avg, .000iso, -65wrc+
This probably isn't en actual battle. I think Heineman has the spot sealed. Just not quite taking it for granted yet.
* OF Roden 25 L: 24pa, 20.8b%, 0.0k%, .357bip, .438avg, .500iso, 284wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 24pa, 25.0b%, 12.5k%, .231bip, .235avg, .235iso, 153wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 22pa, 0.0b%, 27.3k%, .533bip, .409avg, .227iso, 170wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 20pa, 0.0b%, 15.0k%, .500bip, .474avg, .211iso, 188wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 19pa, 5.3b%, 21.1k%, .286bip, .222avg, .222iso, 75wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 13pa, 15.4b%, 30.8k%, .143bip, .091avg, .091iso, 16wrc+
Roden the clear standout at camp so far. Just killing it at the plate in every way. Also interesting enough defensively to get looks in CF - if he can do that then it makes the bench decisions much easier.
Lukes also having a very strong start. Berroa and Straw have shockingly good lines too but you can see from their BBs and Babip that it's probably nothing too interesting. Loperfido not great at the plate so far but only a hit or two away from being decent. Clase was injured to start.
* UT Schneider 26 R: 26pa, 30.8b%, 19.2k%, .500bip, .389avg, .333iso, 234wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 22pa, 9.1b%, 31.8k%, .500bip, .350avg, .200iso, 150wrc+
* UT Stefanic 29 R: 21pa, 19.0b%, 19.0k%, .385bip, .313avg, .000iso, 110wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 18pa, 11.1b%, 33.3k%, .444bip, .313avg, .250iso, 145wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 18pa, 0.0b%, 27.8k%, .308bip, .222avg, .167iso, 48wrc+
Schneider also having a killer start to his spring, 2nd only to Roden. The only glitch on his line here is the babip. I don't know if there's anything he can do to win a spot to start the year but he's doing everything he can.
Barger and Orelvis having very nice springs too but still lots of swing and miss and very high babips. Nothing here to make you think they both couldn't use more time in AAA.
Stefanic is probably a useful bench piece if the others can't step up.
Wagner the only real dissappointment so far in ST for the hitters. If it was an open competition (it;s not) he would be on the back foot right now.
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 24pa,12.5b%, 12.5k%, .235bip, .200avg, .100iso, 76wrc+
The only guy here that can actually play SS, which gives him an opening. But with Clement and Gimenez likely able to handle backup SS duties it's not a huge opening.
It's still true that the big decisions really come down to whether they feel they need to keep "true" CF and SS fielders on the bench this year, or if they think Clement/Gimenez and Springer/Roden/Lukes are good enough to backup in a pinch.
I would say that Wagner is still a prohibitive favorite to make the squad. Roden and Schneider are making it very hard to cut them. The last two spots could probably be best filled by Lukes and Stefanic, but they could choose guys with more defensive chops than them instead.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
manny
Well-known member
The only “true CF” on the roster other than Varsho is Myles Straw. I still think he has the inside track.