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OT: World Politics

MindzEye said:
Yeah, it really feels like we've reached an inflection point again.
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the signficance of the Saki attack cannot be understated.

that and I kinda have a hunch that this whole "Kherson counteroffensive" that they have been broadcasting loudly and for weeks was just a ruse to get the Russkies to move their troops west of the Dnipro, where they may well be stranded shortly.

I also read some accounts that think this is all a misdirection to try and retake Melitopol, which would sever the Crimea-Russia land bridge and seriously jeopardize all the troops west of there. Will be an interesting couple months that could decide the war.
 
Heard an interesting take from an ex-CIA agent that Europe really cant afford to have the sanctions in place in the winter. They are too reliant on Russian oil/gas and people would literally freeze to death. So there is a pressure point for Europe to continue supporting the sanctions. His point was that there are major economic interests for Russia to win this war (pipelines in the east and agriculture) and the west doesn't really have anything to gain economically and likely won't be willing to make sacrifices back home.

America on the other hand doesn't have that pressure, and likes that they are getting to test new weapon systems in active war zones. But everything they are giving Ukraine is on loan so they are racking up insane debt.

So basically Ukraine is fucked either way.
 
leafman101 said:
Heard an interesting take from an ex-CIA agent that Europe really cant afford to have the sanctions in place in the winter. They are too reliant on Russian oil/gas and people would literally freeze to death. So there is a pressure point for Europe to continue supporting the sanctions. His point was that there are major economic interests for Russia to win this war (pipelines in the east and agriculture) and the west doesn't really have anything to gain economically and likely won't be willing to make sacrifices back home.

America on the other hand doesn't have that pressure, and likes that they are getting to test new weapon systems in active war zones. But everything they are giving Ukraine is on loan so they are racking up insane debt.

So basically Ukraine is fucked either way.
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Didn’t realize it was on loan.
That will never be repaid
 
It was never meant to be repaid. It will be forgiven in exchange for some series of foreign policy favours asked in the future.
 
leafman101 said:
Heard an interesting take from an ex-CIA agent that Europe really cant afford to have the sanctions in place in the winter. They are too reliant on Russian oil/gas and people would literally freeze to death. So there is a pressure point for Europe to continue supporting the sanctions. His point was that there are major economic interests for Russia to win this war (pipelines in the east and agriculture) and the west doesn't really have anything to gain economically and likely won't be willing to make sacrifices back home.

America on the other hand doesn't have that pressure, and likes that they are getting to test new weapon systems in active war zones. But everything they are giving Ukraine is on loan so they are racking up insane debt.

So basically Ukraine is fucked either way.
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This sounds pretty dire, but I wonder if this is one of the same experts that thought Kyiv would fall within 72 hours of a Russian invasion.

“Conquered by Russia & wiped off the map culturally & politically” is also a completely different species of “fucked” than “has a lot of war debt, but has repelled a conquering foreign army and is still a sovereign, independent country”.
 
LeafGm said:
This sounds pretty dire, but I wonder if this is one of the same experts that thought Kyiv would fall within 72 hours of a Russian invasion.

“Conquered by Russia & wiped off the map culturally & politically” is also a completely different species of “fucked” than “has a lot of war debt, but has repelled a conquering foreign army and is still a sovereign, independent country”.
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Europe is going to have to tighten their belts and don't be surprised if they do natgas outages during mild weather to ensure that they have enough for the cold snaps. They all stockpile in the summer in preparation for the winter anyway and they're apparently ahead of their 2021 stockpiles at this point despite everything.

Its definitely a pressure point for Europe, but its a pressure point that they already had processes in place to manage, and expected to be an issue this winter regardless so started trying to get ahead of it.
 
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