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OT: World Politics

lecoqsportif said:
Michael Kofman doesn’t think the Russians have the capability to mount a major offensive that would succeed.
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He's right, and they're fucked come mid spring imo. Shit is just lining up really, really badly for them.

- 60K ukies are currently training with new weapons systems in NATO countries and are due back late april. This was coordinated among NATO countries as part of their weapons aid packages.

- Lots...lots of armor start to hit Ukie inventories in April and there will be a consistent wave of equipment that will continue through the summer. Bradley's start to arrive late February in big numbers for Ukies to train on and stockpile, Leopard I & II's start rolling in shortly after that. A few months of training on them during mud season (which due to a warm european winter has been extended significantly this year) and everything will be ready to roll for a May-June offensive.

I haven't been this excited for the Ukies since the M777's and HIMARS units stalled out Russia's rolling fire tactics last spring. The Ukies are shortly going to have the armor capability to make a sustained push for Melitopol and cut Russian holdings in half.
 
Wayward DP said:
FWIW I think it's already begun, as haphazardly as one would expect.

Daily troop losses have recently been eclipsing 1,000 for the Russians, which I think is a high point, or high point since the early days. Plus the recent equipment losses have really been piling up.

All this to say I think the "Russian offensive" narrative being played up is perhaps being overplayed, but we will know soon enough.
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The entire front is starting to remind me of the western front in WWI. A few offensives here and there, lot of casualties, little movement. Russia probably has the manpower to outlast Zelensky in an overall sense. The issue is how many Russian mothers want their sons to die for a few KM of frozen steppe. Ukraine's ability to hold out and be like the Vietcong/NVA/Afghans will depend on how long western governments are willing to spend billions on the distant war. Right now, seems like a lengthy stalemate will ensue.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
The entire front is starting to remind me of the western front in WWI. A few offensives here and there, lot of casualties, little movement. Russia probably has the manpower to outlast Zelensky in an overall sense. The issue is how many Russian mothers want their sons to die for a few KM of frozen steppe. Ukraine's ability to hold out and be like the Vietcong/NVA/Afghans will depend on how long western governments are willing to spend billions on the distant war. Right now, seems like a lengthy stalemate will ensue.
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See: ME’s post above.
 
manny said:
That, but also lol at “how long western governments are willing to spend billions on the distant war.”

We should just let Germany, Poland, Latvia, etc know that Ukraine is really, really far away.
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lol all you want, I don't see you volunteering. Face it, the war there has no effect on our lives. If it weren't for twitter and Leaf board, would anyone know the war was still going on?
 
Also the ROI on the commitment is absolutely spectacular. This is a pittance of the US defence budget and way to clear out some old inventory. For this the Russians have wasted pretty much their entire special forces, the Black Sea Flag Ship, depleted their regular capacity by 50% and have lost a YUGE amount of face with potential arms purchasers.

This is a spectacular return for the west.
 
To expand on that…

TheCountofMonteCristo said:
lol all you want, I don't see you volunteering. Face it, the war there has no effect on our lives. If it weren't for twitter and Leaf board, would anyone know the war was still going on?
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You ignorant fuck.

I’m one of 1.4 million Canadians that are part of the Ukranian diaspora. Add that to the several million other Canadians that have relatives in Europe and give that statement another think.

Leaving personal connections aside, if your work involves any international component at all, you are likely to be pretty aware that there is a god damned land war in Europe. Today, we advised clients that will be in a multilateral meeting involving Russians next week that they should walk out when Russia takes the floor, just like they have for months.

You're beyond hope: totally gone, mentally and morally. But you're a good cautionary tale for others why we should not be complacent.
 
manny said:
To expand on that…


You ignorant fuck.

I’m one of 1.4 million Canadians that are part of the Ukranian diaspora. Add that to the several million other Canadians that have relatives in Europe and give that statement another think.

Leaving personal connections aside, if your work involves any international component at all, you are likely to be pretty aware that there is a god damned land war in Europe. Today, we advised clients that will be in a multilateral meeting involving Russians next week that they should walk out when Russia takes the floor, just like they have for months.

You're beyond hope: totally gone, mentally and morally. But you're a good cautionary tale for others why we should not be complacent.
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Simmer down pinhead, your slacktivism is noted.

As for the advice you gave your clients, that'll teach Vlad, I am sure he won't sleep tonight.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Also the ROI on the commitment is absolutely spectacular. This is a pittance of the US defence budget and way to clear out some old inventory. For this the Russians have wasted pretty much their entire special forces, the Black Sea Flag Ship, depleted their regular capacity by 50% and have lost a YUGE amount of face with potential arms purchasers.

This is a spectacular return for the west.
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The US will have crippled Russian military capability for a generation for about 1/10th of a single year's budget, most of which was sitting in warehouses collecting dust. Some of the greatest ROI in military history.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
Simmer down pinhead, your slacktivism is noted.

As for the advice you gave your clients, that'll teach Vlad, I am sure he won't sleep tonight.
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Of course Putin doesn’t care what people think about Russia. And like, dude, is there even a war in Ukraine anymore? Nobody knows! We’re all as dumb as you!

Anyway, you can’t argue with an idiot. You’re fair game for mockery though.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
The entire front is starting to remind me of the western front in WWI. A few offensives here and there, lot of casualties, little movement.
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And in the absence of modern armor and air superiority, that's to be expected. Inject enough modern armor and give the Ukies that ability to do more than simply knock Russian planes out of the sky and that changes.

Also, Ukrainian winter has been super mild, so it's just been an extended mud season. Analysts have always been working under the assumption that the battle lines won't really move much aside from the 4 month gaps between mud seasons and this winter hasn't been one of those.

Here's the min/max for the last 2 months

1675902090810.png

It just hasn't stayed consistently cold enough for tracked equipment to operate off road without getting stuck like the Russians did in March 2022.

Spring thaw should be mild (not a lot of snow pack accumulation at all this year) and everything should dry out early. We'll likely see a continuation of November once conditions are right.
 
manny said:
Of course Putin doesn’t care what people think about Russia. And like, dude, is there even a war in Ukraine anymore? Nobody knows! We’re all as dumb as you!

Anyway, you can’t argue with an idiot. You’re fair game for mockery though.
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how will I sleep at night thinking that.

People know there is a war moron, just nobody off twitter or Leaf board cares. I can't remember the last time someone mentioned that war outside those two platforms.

I assume though given how much you care, that you must have bought a ton of Trudeau's war bonds and donated a ton to Zelenskyy. Assuming so, hat off to you.
 
Some people still choosing to wear masks = worthy of endless discussion and petulant, self-centered whining.

One of the world’s largest militaries, commanded by a dictator invading its democratic neighbour in a genocidal, imperial war of conquest = God, who even cares about that? Can’t the Ukrainians just be forced to surrender so I don’t have to hear about it anymore?
 
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