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OT: World Politics

MindzEye said:
There's generally a 3-4/1 defenders advantage in warfare and the Russians haven't had remotely that anywhere along the lines yet have been throwing 50-100 attacks at ukie defences per day...for fucking months now with nothing other than a few days of pause to re arm here and there.

They're going to exhaust themselves at some point and they haven't shown the competency for me to believe that they wouldn't do it right in time for the weather to favour a ukie offensive
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they have literally no foresight. only objectives that seemingly must be achieved no matter what and despite any costs.

their military doctrine/model keeps exposing itself as an embarrassment, and I don't expect that to change.

to the extent they demonstrated any learning and foresight, it was under Surovikin, who was sidelined recently.

so yeah, count me on board team Russian incompetence, I guess.

rumours about the Ukrainians stabilizing the line in Bakhmut and even recapturing some territory too...
 
Wayward DP said:
they have literally no foresight. only objectives that seemingly must be achieved no matter what and despite any costs.

their military doctrine/model keeps exposing itself as an embarrassment, and I don't expect that to change.

to the extent they demonstrated any learning and foresight, it was under Surovikin, who was sidelined recently.

so yeah, count me on board team Russian incompetence, I guess.

rumours about the Ukrainians stabilizing the line in Bakhmut and even recapturing some territory too...
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Russians/Soviets, always been the same thing, throw as many in the grinder as possible knowing they can outbleed just about any other country in Europe.

The front basically hasn't moved in months, it is starting to remind me of WW(.

I was listening to the Mansbridge podcast on Canada Talks this week Respected former journalist Brian Stewart was on with Peter. They basically said the only way they see out of this quagmire is for Zelenskyy to acknowledge that the annexed territories and Crimea are now part of Russia. They see the west as only giving Ukraine enough weapons not to lose, not enough to win.

Can't say they are wrong at this point.
 
The front hasn't moved in months because of weather/ground conditions being unfit for armor.

It was a mild winter and nothing froze. This is good for European lng demand, but bad for ukie armor advances. How static the lines really are will take a few more months for us to actually know. If Ukraine makes no significant gains this summer, then maybe its time to start looking at that as a likely outcome here. But with a 5-6 month man and equipment build up, russia panic building fortifications in Crimea over the last month, and a 4-6 month weather window about to open up, we're shortly going to see the real current state of the fight, one way or the other.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
Russians/Soviets, always been the same thing, throw as many in the grinder as possible knowing they can outbleed just about any other country in Europe.

The front basically hasn't moved in months, it is starting to remind me of WW(.

I was listening to the Mansbridge podcast on Canada Talks this week Respected former journalist Brian Stewart was on with Peter. They basically said the only way they see out of this quagmire is for Zelenskyy to acknowledge that the annexed territories and Crimea are now part of Russia. They see the west as only giving Ukraine enough weapons not to lose, not enough to win.

Can't say they are wrong at this point.
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they are wrong... stop listening to the same idiots who told you the Russians would be marching in Kyiv within three days.

the Ukrainians have been training and amassing forces and equipment for a counter offensive. let's maybe wait for that to take place before the fatalistic proclamations.

also, no one saw or expected the rout by the Ukrainians to retake Kharkiv. seems like they know what they're doing here.
 
MindzEye said:
The front hasn't moved in months because of weather/ground conditions being unfit for armor.

It was a mild winter and nothing froze. This is good for European lng demand, but bad for ukie armor advances. How static the lines really are will take a few more months for us to actually know. If Ukraine makes no significant gains this summer, then maybe its time to start looking at that as a likely outcome here. But with a 5-6 month man and equipment build up, russia panic building fortifications in Crimea over the last month, and a 4-6 month weather window about to open up, we're shortly going to see the real current state of the fight, one way or the other.
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not to mention all the targeting and softening of Russian logistics that has been occuring.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
Russians/Soviets, always been the same thing, throw as many in the grinder as possible knowing they can outbleed just about any other country in Europe.

The front basically hasn't moved in months, it is starting to remind me of WW(.

I was listening to the Mansbridge podcast on Canada Talks this week Respected former journalist Brian Stewart was on with Peter. They basically said the only way they see out of this quagmire is for Zelenskyy to acknowledge that the annexed territories and Crimea are now part of Russia. They see the west as only giving Ukraine enough weapons not to lose, not enough to win.

Can't say they are wrong at this point.
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looking at the 'front' is reductionist and silly in any event.

the more relevant things to look at: how many Russians died/were wounded to gain marginal territory? and what state does that leave the remaining Russian forces in? we'll see and know soon enough.
 
Wayward DP said:
looking at the 'front' is reductionist and silly in any event.

the more relevant things to look at: how many Russians died/were wounded to gain marginal territory? and what state does that leave the remaining Russian forces in? we'll see and know soon enough.
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as is thinking the Russians care how many die, they never did in any of their major european wars before,
 
Wayward DP said:
def mon and Phillips getting snippy about Bakhmut:





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Not surprising that some of the academic guys and the osint guys were going to go at it eventually.

Fwiw, I don't think the people suggesting that bakhmut needed to be abandoned were considering how much the Russians were losing there, how defensible the city and surrounding areas have become over the last 6 months and what the political costs of the ongoing failures there were given the heavily cronyist Russian system. Wagner has become a red headed stepchild recently and has been starved of prime choice of supplies. Wagner operators are the best Russia have now, just creating the political schism will have effect on capabilities
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
These people should be forced to live in the US where you get zero paid vacation days, no sick days, and a government that is trying to simultaneously eliminate the mandatory retirement age and repeal child labor laws.
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Surely you aren't in favour of a government using fascist undemocratic actions to ram through legislation to screw the people like Macron did. BTW, if you support the Macronian actions, then you are in bed with Eric Zemmour who also supports the new law. Wehave in bed with fascists, say it ain't so, say it ain't so,,,
 
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