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OT: World Politics

I've been waiting for some of the smarter Ukie followers to chime in online before I formed my opinion on what happened, why it was done and what it meant going forward. But here's the best information and opinions I've been able to find.


1) Russia fucked up: I mean, we all know this but there's probably more to it than we thought. The prevailing logic in Ukie tactics circles is that Russia was just trying to create a small breach in the dam to flood the islands in the river that the Ukies had taken control of over the last 6-8 weeks and had started stashing ammunition and building positions on that would support both defensive work if necessary and help the supply of an amphibious assault. Russian planners didn't expect this large of a catastrophe and the giveaway here is that they had a solid line of fortifications and equipment in and around Oleshky that is currently underwater and according to Russian social media chatter, the soldiers themselves were only given 1-2 hours notice of evacuation from these positions. This magnitude of flooding does not appear to be have been planned for by the MOD.

2) It's a temporary measure regardless: Flood waters will recede within 2 weeks and the Ukies were apparently logistically prepared for evacuating the islands they had set up on as blowing the dam has been a possibility they've planned for. It's been a known risk since the Ukies reclaimed Kherson last fall.

3) This is a grim, grim tactical error by the Russians: The Ukies were, at the very least, staging for localized amphibious assaults in the area that is now flooded, and maybe planning for a full counter attack push in the region. But it's a shitty, marshy area to cross and create a bridgehead in. The best 2 crossings already had bridges and dams, there was no really good 3rd spot. A crossing was doable, but kind of a shit proposition. It was either cross 500m of river with 2 km of marshy island cover on the other side, or cross 4-5km of open water upriver of the dam. They had about 50km of river bank to choose landing locations from. When the reservoire finishes emptying into the Black Sea in 2 weeks, there will be about 200km of additional river bank to choose landing points from and all of that new river bank is in regions that are poorly fortified as the Russians have never expected to have to defend 4-5km amphibious assaults.

This is an obvious war crime by the Russians, but it looks like it was a fuck up and an own goal. Russian planners are likely scrambling like a motherfucker right now trying to figure out how they're going to defend 250km of riverbank when 50km was already slowly slipping from their control.
 
Also, inB4 the Kremlin talking points get posted.

When the Russians retreated across the dam last fall, they blew part of the dam to cover their retreat and halt further Ukie advance:



The part of the dam seen blown up this week was only accessible from the Russian held side of the river. The Ukies don't have any single artillery/missile piece capable of this scale of damage (estimates suggest about 20 tons of explosives necessary here) and there's no evidence of the type of prolonged artillery campaign against the dam (literally weeks of shelling would have been necessary).
 
Another quick couple of updates before I fuck off for the afternoon

1) The Russians are releasing hilariously inflated numbers of kills/equipment destroyed from what appears to be a very successful Ukie counter in Zap



We're back to the good old days of the Russians proclaiming the destruction of 106 from the 19 HIMARS units rolling around Ukraine. Now it's European Leopard tanks that are apparently exploding by the dozens

Fx_W9XlaQAAPFcU


2) Regarding that particular area, Ukie forces have broken through Russian lines in Zap and reclaimed a few settlements. OSINT channels are trying to keep fairly quiet on specific details to help preserve operational security

3) Ukies have pincered Klischiivka south of Bakhmut and it's basically fucked as a Russian position.
 
If you look carefully, The Count is suggesting that the military industrial complex are the only people benefitting from this war of aggression and that the Ukes are NATO pawns.

He has been arguing that we drop support for the Ukes and appease Russia.

If anything, he's been towing a traditionally pacifist line in his arguments.

Though I typically take a similar stance - I believe the US military industrial complex (and the global arms industry) to be the living embodiment of Satan on earth -

In this case though?

We can not. We must not appease illiberal Russia.

Same with China.

I believe that Count is neither blood lusting nor lacking empathy. He has repeatedly been worried about escalation leading to nuclear war.

Though not a supporter of his point of view, I believe that dunking on him in this way is akin to playing after the whistle.

Slava Ukraine!
Count famously doesn't care about anybody but his inner circle.
 
I've been waiting for some of the smarter Ukie followers to chime in online before I formed my opinion on what happened, why it was done and what it meant going forward. But here's the best information and opinions I've been able to find.


1) Russia fucked up: I mean, we all know this but there's probably more to it than we thought. The prevailing logic in Ukie tactics circles is that Russia was just trying to create a small breach in the dam to flood the islands in the river that the Ukies had taken control of over the last 6-8 weeks and had started stashing ammunition and building positions on that would support both defensive work if necessary and help the supply of an amphibious assault. Russian planners didn't expect this large of a catastrophe and the giveaway here is that they had a solid line of fortifications and equipment in and around Oleshky that is currently underwater and according to Russian social media chatter, the soldiers themselves were only given 1-2 hours notice of evacuation from these positions. This magnitude of flooding does not appear to be have been planned for by the MOD.

2) It's a temporary measure regardless: Flood waters will recede within 2 weeks and the Ukies were apparently logistically prepared for evacuating the islands they had set up on as blowing the dam has been a possibility they've planned for. It's been a known risk since the Ukies reclaimed Kherson last fall.

3) This is a grim, grim tactical error by the Russians: The Ukies were, at the very least, staging for localized amphibious assaults in the area that is now flooded, and maybe planning for a full counter attack push in the region. But it's a shitty, marshy area to cross and create a bridgehead in. The best 2 crossings already had bridges and dams, there was no really good 3rd spot. A crossing was doable, but kind of a shit proposition. It was either cross 500m of river with 2 km of marshy island cover on the other side, or cross 4-5km of open water upriver of the dam. They had about 50km of river bank to choose landing locations from. When the reservoire finishes emptying into the Black Sea in 2 weeks, there will be about 200km of additional river bank to choose landing points from and all of that new river bank is in regions that are poorly fortified as the Russians have never expected to have to defend 4-5km amphibious assaults.

This is an obvious war crime by the Russians, but it looks like it was a fuck up and an own goal. Russian planners are likely scrambling like a motherfucker right now trying to figure out how they're going to defend 250km of riverbank when 50km was already slowly slipping from their control.
yeah I try to never rule out "Russian incompetence" from being a likely culprit.
 
Well…definitely not all of us. If you catch my meaning. Though that only serves to reinforce your point.

And Count shouldn’t resent Covid for forcing the Habs to go on their finals run in front of empty buildings. Covid is entirely the reason it was even possible for them to go on that run in the first place. They were all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs that year otherwise.
That was the previous year. The Canadian division year was a thing so your point still stands but the mathematical eliminated part was the previous year.
 
That was the previous year. The Canadian division year was a thing so your point still stands but the mathematical eliminated part was the previous year.


Yep, you are correct. The last several years all kind of blend together and I got that one mixed up.

So yeah…the Habs probably still don’t make the playoffs either that year in a normal season in their usual division. But that’s far more of a “maybe” than the previous year.
 
I mean if so, then fine. But he should embrace his selfishness and acknowledge that in these circumstances it puts him in the awkward position of being pro-genocide.
This is the thing for me. I don't care if someone wants only to be self-interested and not care if the rest of the world burns. All I ask is that these people own their selfishness and admit to it instead of pretending they aren't or that they have some legitimate, high-minded reason for being so.
 
This is the thing for me. I don't care if someone wants only to be self-interested and not care if the rest of the world burns. All I ask is that these people own their selfishness and admit to it instead of pretending they aren't or that they have some legitimate, high-minded reason for being so.
I don't know, I have never been able to understand this mindset at all. But with a guy like Count, what is even worse is the ostrich tendency of pretending that masks are useless or that Putin isn't a war-crime committing piece of shit, no matter how much evidence is presented to the contrary.
 
I don't know, I have never been able to understand this mindset at all. But with a guy like Count, what is even worse is the ostrich tendency of pretending that masks are useless or that Putin isn't a war-crime committing piece of shit, no matter how much evidence is presented to the contrary.
He has convinced himself that Zelensky is somehow just as bad as Putin. That he is a grifter and that Ukrainians are all closet Nazis. Pretty much everything that people like Tucker claimed.
 
To my point earlier about the Russians not realizing what they did until it was too late.

Oleshky and surrounding was the most fortified area on the Russian controlled side of the Dnipro. It's all under water right now along with any piece of equipment they couldn't get out of there. According to Russian social media, they were given about 1-2 hours notice to evacuate. Ukrainian troops on the islands had upwards of 5 hours notice.

 
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To my point earlier about the Russians not realizing what they did until it was too late.

Oleshky and surrounding was the most fortified area on the Russian controlled side of the Dnipro. It's all under water right now along with any piece of equipment they couldn't get out of there. According to Russian social media, they were given about 1-2 hours notice to evacuate. Ukrainian troops on the islands had upwards of 5 hours notice.
never underestimate Russian incompetence. Never.
 
The chatter on ukie and russian channels is that the Ukies have whipped their dicks out and are putting on an arty show in Zap well beyond what we've seen from them previously. Multiple heavy armor pushes in concert with the arty and missile attacks.

 
They’re just going to bust through and when Russian troops move up from the south they’ll head straight for Sevastopol.
 
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