MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I've been waiting for some of the smarter Ukie followers to chime in online before I formed my opinion on what happened, why it was done and what it meant going forward. But here's the best information and opinions I've been able to find.
1) Russia fucked up: I mean, we all know this but there's probably more to it than we thought. The prevailing logic in Ukie tactics circles is that Russia was just trying to create a small breach in the dam to flood the islands in the river that the Ukies had taken control of over the last 6-8 weeks and had started stashing ammunition and building positions on that would support both defensive work if necessary and help the supply of an amphibious assault. Russian planners didn't expect this large of a catastrophe and the giveaway here is that they had a solid line of fortifications and equipment in and around Oleshky that is currently underwater and according to Russian social media chatter, the soldiers themselves were only given 1-2 hours notice of evacuation from these positions. This magnitude of flooding does not appear to be have been planned for by the MOD.
2) It's a temporary measure regardless: Flood waters will recede within 2 weeks and the Ukies were apparently logistically prepared for evacuating the islands they had set up on as blowing the dam has been a possibility they've planned for. It's been a known risk since the Ukies reclaimed Kherson last fall.
3) This is a grim, grim tactical error by the Russians: The Ukies were, at the very least, staging for localized amphibious assaults in the area that is now flooded, and maybe planning for a full counter attack push in the region. But it's a shitty, marshy area to cross and create a bridgehead in. The best 2 crossings already had bridges and dams, there was no really good 3rd spot. A crossing was doable, but kind of a shit proposition. It was either cross 500m of river with 2 km of marshy island cover on the other side, or cross 4-5km of open water upriver of the dam. They had about 50km of river bank to choose landing locations from. When the reservoire finishes emptying into the Black Sea in 2 weeks, there will be about 200km of additional river bank to choose landing points from and all of that new river bank is in regions that are poorly fortified as the Russians have never expected to have to defend 4-5km amphibious assaults.
This is an obvious war crime by the Russians, but it looks like it was a fuck up and an own goal. Russian planners are likely scrambling like a motherfucker right now trying to figure out how they're going to defend 250km of riverbank when 50km was already slowly slipping from their control.
1) Russia fucked up: I mean, we all know this but there's probably more to it than we thought. The prevailing logic in Ukie tactics circles is that Russia was just trying to create a small breach in the dam to flood the islands in the river that the Ukies had taken control of over the last 6-8 weeks and had started stashing ammunition and building positions on that would support both defensive work if necessary and help the supply of an amphibious assault. Russian planners didn't expect this large of a catastrophe and the giveaway here is that they had a solid line of fortifications and equipment in and around Oleshky that is currently underwater and according to Russian social media chatter, the soldiers themselves were only given 1-2 hours notice of evacuation from these positions. This magnitude of flooding does not appear to be have been planned for by the MOD.
2) It's a temporary measure regardless: Flood waters will recede within 2 weeks and the Ukies were apparently logistically prepared for evacuating the islands they had set up on as blowing the dam has been a possibility they've planned for. It's been a known risk since the Ukies reclaimed Kherson last fall.
3) This is a grim, grim tactical error by the Russians: The Ukies were, at the very least, staging for localized amphibious assaults in the area that is now flooded, and maybe planning for a full counter attack push in the region. But it's a shitty, marshy area to cross and create a bridgehead in. The best 2 crossings already had bridges and dams, there was no really good 3rd spot. A crossing was doable, but kind of a shit proposition. It was either cross 500m of river with 2 km of marshy island cover on the other side, or cross 4-5km of open water upriver of the dam. They had about 50km of river bank to choose landing locations from. When the reservoire finishes emptying into the Black Sea in 2 weeks, there will be about 200km of additional river bank to choose landing points from and all of that new river bank is in regions that are poorly fortified as the Russians have never expected to have to defend 4-5km amphibious assaults.
This is an obvious war crime by the Russians, but it looks like it was a fuck up and an own goal. Russian planners are likely scrambling like a motherfucker right now trying to figure out how they're going to defend 250km of riverbank when 50km was already slowly slipping from their control.
