OT: World Politics

[MindzEye]

Not sure that Wagner co opting the state and Piro coming to power is good for anybody. This isn’t the proletariat pushing back against the war in Ukraine. This is a guy who is probably going to double down on the war.

Going to be pretty impossible to consolidate power in Russia while fighting Ukraine in Ukraine.

Was already getting untenable without the full support of what counts as a state there.

 

[mbow30]

I mean he’s a mercenary. Doesn’t this just mean someone else offered a better deal.

It’s a possibility but nobody’s stepped up, which is concerning

 

[mbow30]

Going to be pretty impossible to consolidate power in Russia while fighting Ukraine in Ukraine.

Was already getting untenable without the full support of what counts as a state there.

Does he want to consolidate power in Russia? That’s my concern here - nobody has articulated a vision for what this means for Russia.

 

[manny]

Whoever is behind this isn’t going to step up until it’s clear the coup is a success.

 

[MindzEye]

No, he’s saying that the war was poorly planned and executed and they’re lying about how the effort has gone. He’s not saying that the war is wrong or taking issue with Putins imperial ambitions.

I think this has more to do with the biggest sin in Russia being weakness. You can be as corrupt or evil as you want, but be strong or they will string you up. This is the only line of attack revolutionaries in Russia ever understands.

 

[MindzEye]

Does he want to consolidate power in Russia? That’s my concern here - nobody has articulated a vision for what this means for Russia.

If he doesn't consolidate power in Russia he's going to get whacked.

 

[zeke]

Just say no to krassensteins

 

[zeke]

Not sure that Wagner co opting the state and Piro coming to power is good for anybody. This isn’t the proletariat pushing back against the war in Ukraine. This is a guy who is probably going to double down on the war.

There is zero chance thet wagner could take clean clear control of the entire russian apparatus. A wagner "win" here would mean russia infighting for the forseeable future, and much less international capabilities.

 

[zeke]

No, he’s saying that the war was poorly planned and executed and they’re lying about how the effort has gone. He’s not saying that the war is wrong or taking issue with Putins imperial ambitions.

No, he clearly also said the motivation for the war was a lie - that ukraine and nato werent a threat to invade russia.

 

[mbow30]

There is zero chance thet wagner could take clean clear control of the entire russian apparatus. A wagner "win" here would mean russia infighting for the forseeable future, and much less international capabilities.

Yeah, that’s dangerous as eff

 

[mbow30]

No, he clearly also said the motivation for the war was a lie - that ukraine and nato werent a threat to invade russia.

If he was fully against the war the troops wouldn’t still be in Ukraine.

 

[zeke]

So, they’re liars. He’s still not saying he wouldn’t have done it, calling for an end to the war etc.

Im not saying vlad is a better option here but people clearly need some perspective here - the guys a maniac.

The key is you're underestimating Putin.

Vladdy has been a legit genius to be able to maintain control of all of russia like he had, and there's just no way prizoghun can just replace vlad and instantly have the same power and control over all the oligarchs and warlords that vlad has.

 

[mbow30]

The key is you're underestimating Putin.

Vladdy has been a legit genius to be able to maintain control of all of russia like he had, and there's just no way prizoghun can just replace vlad and instantly have the same power and control over all the oligarchs and warlords that vlad has.

What? We’re not taking. About the same things here.

 

[zeke]

If he was fully against the war the troops wouldn’t still be in Ukraine.

He's not against the war. But he did say it was based on a lie. And if he succeeds right now he's going to need to concentrate fully on consolidating power at home.

 

[MindzEye]

There is zero chance thet wagner could take clean clear control of the entire russian apparatus. A wagner "win" here would mean russia infighting for the forseeable future, and much less international capabilities.

The regime is going to have a choice to make shortly on whether or not to pull assets they can't afford to pull from Ukraine or not.

Thats the real story from a pro Ukraine standpoint. Ukraine simply having the ability to win back their territory and reset their borders is a massive win. Once they've set real border defences, its beyond russias ability to do much other than lob missiles

 

[zeke]

What? We’re not taking. About the same things here.

I think we are.

Putin is kind of amazing. He managed to get all of russia on board with his insanity and turned Russia back into a dangerous world power despite the fact that it's still just a bunch of warlords and oligarchs battling over a failed economy. He's been a miracle worker to somehow hold it all together. He also is a genuinely awful and ruthless dude.

Imo it's very unlikely that the next guy will be able to keep russia in line like putin has. Russia descending into oligarch infighting is good for everyone, even if the next guy in charge is as ruthless as putin is, or worse.

 

[zeke]

I mean he’s a mercenary. Doesn’t this just mean someone else offered a better deal.

Yeah this sounds right tbh.

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]