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OT: World Politics

A few things really underline the new facts on the ground there

- despite months of Russian prep and fortification, they've been unable to stop Ukraine from advancing in any location they're currently attacking. The advance is slow but not due to heavy losses inflicted.

- 50 guys showed up on the right bank of the dnipro and kind of just stayed there. Its now approx 400 guys. Could you possibly imagine the inverse happening? 50 Russians landing in Kherson and not immediately being thrown back into the river....

- the Russians are clearly losing territory around bakhmut fairly quickly after they turned their victory in bakhmut into a propaganda dog and pony show

And all of that is macro shit. We're not even getting into the new boot issue (as in, they're sending troops to the front without them in many areas), the massive increase in ukie drone attacks at supply depots and transport infrastructure, etc etc.
 
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MindzEye said:
A few things really underline the new facts on the ground there

- despite months of Russian prep and fortification, they've been unable to stop Ukraine from advancing in any location they're currently attacking. The advance is slow but not due to heavy losses inflicted.

- 50 guys showed up on the right bank of the dnipro and kind of just stayed there. Its not approx 400 guys. Could you possibly imagine the inverse happening? 50 Russians landing in Kherson and not immediately being thrown back into the river....

- the Russians are clearly losing territory around bakhmut fairly quickly after they turned their victory in bakhmut into a propaganda dog and pony show

And all of that is macro shit. We're not even getting into the new boot issue (as in, they're sending troops to the front without them in many areas), the massive increase in ukie drone attacks at supply depots and transport infrastructure, etc etc.
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my read is that the tide is slowly turning. and at some point, the dam will break. but death by a thousand cuts until then, while the mediots blather on about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed or is failing or is doomed to failure whilst of course completely ignoring the reality on the ground.

one of Russia's major advantages was in both the volume and quality of artillery pieces. if they lose both those advantages, they're kinda fucked. and it sure seems like Ukraine has been methodically and diligently destroying their artillery and ammunition for the past several weeks.

the lack of quick progress is more a result of Ukrainian tactics and a desire to preserve their resources (human and equipment) than demonstrative of failure or impenetrable Russian defences.

plus, the Ukrainians don't have air superiority. that alone necessitates a lot more caution and limits how quickly they can advance. the fact that they've made so many gains all along the frontline without it is encouraging.
 
Yeah, air superiority is the big one.

Another is nato withholding weapons from Ukraine for silly reasons. The US finally gave them cluster munitions. F16s are a year late, no atacms (look at the impact the storm shadow has had ffs), etc etc.

What would Ukraine with tanks, F16s, and cruise missiles last summer have made this conflict look like?
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, air superiority is the big one.

Another is nato withholding weapons from Ukraine for silly reasons. The US finally gave them cluster munitions. F16s are a year late, no atacms (look at the impact the storm shadow has had ffs), etc etc.

What would Ukraine with tanks, F16s, and cruise missiles last summer have made this conflict look like?
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yeah, the US has consistently only given them the weapons they need months after they would have been most effective.

the Ukrainians have shown that they're smarter and more resourceful than the Russians. give them the tools they need, when they needed them and this is over months ago.
 
the one encouraging thing recently though is that France and Germany are now very much pro-Ukraine, and arguably more so than the US. hasn't always been the case. but Europe seems committed now, which is significant. just need the Americans to stop dawdling.
 
Russia: We destroyed 16 Bradley fighting vehicles in the first two weeks of the Ukrainian offensive
US: That's cute
 
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