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OT: World Politics

Wayward DP said:
wtf is Wagner thinking here beyond fanning the flames of WWIII?
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The Russians really only have one tactic philosophically, keep pushing you until they find your line. They're habitual line steppers & they smell weakness in Nato resolve imo. If Nato had real resolve, there would be no limits to the gear they would be willing to give Ukraine. Ukraine would have atacms and F16s, etc, etc, etc. There isn't real resolve in Nato to end this asap though and Russia knows it.

So how far do they have to push until Nato breaks? I think they would be willing to take a measured run at the Suwalki gap, and see what the response is. Does Nato dither and hand wring about article 5? Maybe even failing to use it altogether. Or do they drop the fucking hammer immediately?

If they dither, Russia gets what they want, a public display of Nato looking weak. If Nato drop the hammer, Belarus/Wagner lose some of their troops and equipment, a few military targets in Belarus get essploded and Lukashenko quickly apologizes to Poland and ends hostilities. I think everyone involved knows that a Nato adventure onto non Nato soil is more or less never going to happen. A Nato force isn't invading and overthrowing Lukashenko over an aggressive border incursion that got mollywhopped.

Thing is, I don't think Russia (read, Putin) believes that they're as weak as they actually are. Bad news doesn't really make it's way to the top in their system by most/all reports. His overall plan of over throwing Ukraine, then moving on to the Baltics is still a go. Shit like this makes perfect sense when viewed within that macro outlook.
 
MindzEye said:
The Russians really only have one tactic philosophically, keep pushing you until they find your line. They're habitual line steppers & they smell weakness in Nato resolve imo. If Nato had real resolve, there would be no limits to the gear they would be willing to give Ukraine. Ukraine would have atacms and F16s, etc, etc, etc. There isn't real resolve in Nato to end this asap though and Russia knows it.

So how far do they have to push until Nato breaks? I think they would be willing to take a measured run at the Suwalki gap, and see what the response is. Does Nato dither and hand wring about article 5? Maybe even failing to use it altogether. Or do they drop the fucking hammer immediately?

If they dither, Russia gets what they want, a public display of Nato looking weak. If Nato drop the hammer, Belarus/Wagner lose some of their troops and equipment, a few military targets in Belarus get essploded and Lukashenko quickly apologizes to Poland and ends hostilities. I think everyone involved knows that a Nato adventure onto non Nato soil is more or less never going to happen. A Nato force isn't invading and overthrowing Lukashenko over an aggressive border incursion that got mollywhopped.

Thing is, I don't think Russia (read, Putin) believes that they're as weak as they actually are. Bad news doesn't really make it's way to the top in their system by most/all reports. His overall plan of over throwing Ukraine, then moving on to the Baltics is still a go. Shit like this makes perfect sense when viewed within that macro outlook.
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yeah, this makes sense, (unfortunately)
 
This explains a lot about why Russia started this war and why it chose now to do it. They have a serious and potentially fatal demographics problem.

 
seems to my untrained eye that Putin is trying to escalate things wherever and however he can. Wagner in Belarus, coup in Niger, kicking the US out of Syria...
 
Wayward DP said:
@TheCountofMonteCristo

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have you considered Count's counter-argument though? seems pretty iron-clad

- masks are useless
- (shown overwhelming proof that masks are effective)
- well i feel like masks are useless

- russia is not committing genocide
- (shown overwhelming proof that russia is committing genocide)
- well i feel like russia is not committing genocide
 
axlsalinger said:
have you considered Count's counter-argument though? seems pretty iron-clad

- masks are useless
- (shown overwhelming proof that masks are effective)
- well i feel like masks are useless

- russia is not committing genocide
- (shown overwhelming proof that russia is committing genocide)
- well i feel like russia is not committing genocide
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-why do you care? nothing any of us do can have any impact on the Vlad-Vlod war
-(aid from western democracies, and accordingly the support of their voters, is maybe THE most crucial factor for Ukraine's chances at winning the war)
-you're exhausting
 
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