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OT: World Politics

WellPlayed said:
-why do you care? nothing any of us do can have any impact on the Vlad-Vlod war
-(aid from western democracies, and accordingly the support of their voters, is maybe THE most crucial factor for Ukraine's chances at winning the war)
-you're exhausting
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Nailed it
 
How much do you wanna bet that Russia is going to be running to the bargaining table as soon as the F-16s show up?
 
Stinky said:
How much do you wanna bet that Russia is going to be running to the bargaining table as soon as the F-16s show up?
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Really wonder how much the world is going to make Russia pay for all of this, or if they end up giving in and letting them off the hook easy just to make it stop.
 
UWHabs said:
Really wonder how much the world is going to make Russia pay for all of this, or if they end up giving in and letting them off the hook easy just to make it stop.
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They won’t go to the ICC or anything like that. That’s why “extralegal justice” has already been deployed by Ukrainian security groups.
 
Wayward DP said:
yeah lotsa rumblings/rumours of shit going down on the left bank...

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It makes the most sense for a real push, and would also help explain why the movements in Zap/Donetsk have been so cautious. There's lots of unwinding of established Russian hard points to do there, so a certain lack of pace is expected, but they also haven't pushed advantage aggressively at all when it's been there if it would put their forces in any sort of position to be countered.

I really think they've been waiting for the Russian fuck up in blowing the dam to mature (the river banks drying up enough to create additional easy landing areas). Never interrupt your adversary when they're in the middle of fucking up and all of that. It's the longest supply route with the easiest terrain to advance in, it creates the options to turn the Zap defensive line into a 2 fronted war, and if the Kerch bridge can't be used, basically turns Crimea into an island.

It's where Russian forces, logistics, and current political philosophy all meet at a weak point. Re taking Bakhmut would make a statement, but forcing the surrender of Russian forces on Crimea would likely be a regime ending moment, without having the take back every metre of territory in the east the hard way.
 
MindzEye said:
It makes the most sense for a real push, and would also help explain why the movements in Zap/Donetsk have been so cautious. There's lots of unwinding of established Russian hard points to do there, so a certain lack of pace is expected, but they also haven't pushed advantage aggressively at all when it's been there if it would put their forces in any sort of position to be countered.

I really think they've been waiting for the Russian fuck up in blowing the dam to mature (the river banks drying up enough to create additional easy landing areas). Never interrupt your adversary when they're in the middle of fucking up and all of that. It's the longest supply route with the easiest terrain to advance in, it creates the options to turn the Zap defensive line into a 2 fronted war, and if the Kerch bridge can't be used, basically turns Crimea into an island.

It's where Russian forces, logistics, and current political philosophy all meet at a weak point. Re taking Bakhmut would make a statement, but forcing the surrender of Russian forces on Crimea would likely be a regime ending moment, without having the take back every metre of territory in the east the hard way.
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plus sets them up pretty ideally to take a real run at Crimea
 
Wayward DP said:
plus sets them up pretty ideally to take a real run at Crimea
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It's always made the most sense imo. Where the enemy is the weakest, where you're least expected to make a push in strength, best terrain, best target selection that's easiest to isolate, takes the Russian's best defended frontier and forces them to start defending from behind it, etc, etc, etc.

I like hearing stories of them re taking ground in Bakhmut, unwinding hard points in Zap.....but none of it excites me like news from Kherson. It just makes so much sense for that to be where the real push happens.
 
Ukie shelling about 15km of Oleshky. Looks like MLRS hitting the Russian defensive trench systems between Oleshky and the next town over.



This is the location of the potential river crossing mentioned above. Kozachka Laheri.
 
MindzEye said:
Ukie shelling about 15km of Oleshky. Looks like MLRS hitting the Russian defensive trench systems between Oleshky and the next town over.



This is the location of the potential river crossing mentioned above. Kozachka Laheri.
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Could they carry cluster munitions 🤓
 
Stinky said:
Could they carry cluster munitions 🤓
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Yes. I don't nearly enough about ordinance to know what those look like getting blowed up good, or if what is in the clip are cluster munitions, but yes they can be loaded in rockets fired out of MLRS systems.
 
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