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OT: World Politics

Stinky said:
Mindz…
You said that this might be a coordinated destabilization effort between Iran, Russia, and China if China started ratcheting up actions against Taiwan.
I hope that’s not the next thing that we’re going to see here…
If this is what decolonization beyond American hegemonic control looks like, I’m not a fan.
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To be clear, I don't think that's what's going on, I mentioned that as the one thing to be concerned about the limitations of American power projection regarding. The US can pretty comfortably supply Ukraine (with assistance from Europe) while parking a carrier off the coast of Israel as a gentle warning to neighbouring nations to stay the fuck out of this, while providing whatever munitions support Israel asks for (mostly guided missiles from what I understand) without much difficulty.

If shit popped off in Taiwan at the same time, we might see the limits of American logistics exceeded for the first time in over 100 years.

Might. I'm still not convinced of that. But, if you were China, these would be the type of conditions you would want to create in the world before you took a run at Taiwan, definitely.
 
Fwiw, tough decision for Biden coming up. If there is proof of Iranian involvement, do you release the 6 billion dollars of frozen assets to them? If you do, the optics are bad regarding support for Israel, if you don't, you're going back on a deal, effectively killing your ability to cut further deals in the future for the return of American citizens, or anything else.
 
MindzEye said:
To be clear, I don't think that's what's going on, I mentioned that as the one thing to be concerned about the limitations of American power projection regarding. The US can pretty comfortably supply Ukraine (with assistance from Europe) while parking a carrier off the coast of Israel as a gentle warning to neighbouring nations to stay the fuck out of this, while providing whatever munitions support Israel asks for (mostly guided missiles from what I understand) without much difficulty.

If shit popped off in Taiwan at the same time, we might see the limits of American logistics exceeded for the first time in over 100 years.

Might. I'm still not convinced of that. But, if you were China, these would be the type of conditions you would want to create in the world before you took a run at Taiwan, definitely.
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An important thing to keep in mind about a potential invasion of Taiwan is that China does not think it has to “take” Taiwan (in the language used by China hawks all the time). China believes firmly that it already has Taiwan. Absent any acts of aggression by the West or the pro-independence movement in Taiwan, the CPC is not going to change course.
 
zeke said:
don't let him get you worked up.

WeHave is a textbook piece of shit, and a textbook keyboard warrior. A very weak person convincing himself he is tough online with his bold independent takes.
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Because I ask for proof? In every war there are far-fetched stories about atrocities committed by one side by the other. Sometimes they're true and sometimes they aren't. In this case, it really doesn't matter because the stuff we know for sure is true is bad enough and reason enough for Hamas to be made to pay dearly for it. I'm not saying I don't believe that babies were murdered, I'm simply not prepared to take some unnamed Israeli army officer's word for it in the same way I didn't take it on face value that a "peaceful protester" at the Ottawa Klownvoy was "trampled by policemen on horseback". Stories like these are designed to create an emotional response and I prefer to find out if it's genuine or an attempt at manipulation.
 
MindzEye said:
Fwiw, tough decision for Biden coming up. If there is proof of Iranian involvement, do you release the 6 billion dollars of frozen assets to them? If you do, the optics are bad regarding support for Israel, if you don't, you're going back on a deal, effectively killing your ability to cut further deals in the future for the return of American citizens, or anything else.
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The release of those assets is contingent upon Iran not acting like assholes. You can't support a terrorist attack against a US ally and then whine that the US is reneging on a deal.

Besides, Biden might not have to worry about making a decision here. If I'm Israel and I find out that Iran was the one goading on Hamas I bomb the fuck out of them too.
 
MindzEye said:
Fwiw, tough decision for Biden coming up. If there is proof of Iranian involvement, do you release the 6 billion dollars of frozen assets to them? If you do, the optics are bad regarding support for Israel, if you don't, you're going back on a deal, effectively killing your ability to cut further deals in the future for the return of American citizens, or anything else.
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If there is proof, backing out of the deal is a no-brainer
 
manny said:
An important thing to keep in mind about a potential invasion of Taiwan is that China does not think it has to “take” Taiwan (in the language used by China hawks all the time). China believes firmly that it already has Taiwan. Absent any acts of aggression by the West or the pro-independence movement in Taiwan, the CPC is not going to change course.
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China tells itself all sorts of comfortable fictions though.
 
MindzEye said:
Fwiw, tough decision for Biden coming up. If there is proof of Iranian involvement, do you release the 6 billion dollars of frozen assets to them? If you do, the optics are bad regarding support for Israel, if you don't, you're going back on a deal, effectively killing your ability to cut further deals in the future for the return of American citizens, or anything else.
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They didn't release it already?? I thought they had weeks ago.

That would be amazing if they didn't now. They never should have in the first place.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
They didn't release it already?? I thought they had weeks ago.

That would be amazing if they didn't now. They never should have in the first place.
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they did and it’s being supervised by the US, and distributed via Qatar…..but hasn’t been touched yet, and can only be spent on humanitarian needs.

Like, can be used at pre-approved vendors for food, medicines, etc….paid via the Qatari’s, and if they step out of line in any fashion, the funds are locked up again.

Also being slowly distributed over a certain length of time…
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
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So here's the counterpoint to her most compelling argument there (That Israel has the power to singlehandedly move towards peace and reconcilliation).

Their adversary in this isn't necessarily the Palestinian people (we can set aside the exact level of support for Hamas for a moment, though it's obviously pertinent to what I'm about to say), it's Hamas, whose stated goal is to destroy israel and at minimum evict the jews from the region (if not outright kill them all).

I'm entirely comfortable with talking about the shortcomings the Israeli government and how they've handled this issue since 1947, but we also can't pretend that they have an actual dance partner for peace on the other side of this. This is the root of what makes the issue so complicated.
 
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