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OT: World Politics

lecoqsportif said:
Not a super great outcome in Germany, though it might be because the left is split among three parties. East Germany remains mired in resentment.
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Could be worse. It was a given that Merz was going to be the new chancellor and other than immigration there's not too much he and AFD get along on. SPD winning enough votes to help them pass legislation gives a good centre-left off ramp on most issues for the CDU to take. It's probably best case scenario for where they were. What we really didn't want imo was for coalition/deal making between the CDU and the centre and left to be complicated and difficult. Nobody wants the AFD to be the kingmaker, so I think left wing germans are just going to have to accept that immigration laws are a lost cause to them for a while.
 
Cal Gal said:
What's it going to take to get this guy to do the right thing?

www.yahoo.com

Hungarians will decide whether Ukraine can join the European Union, Orbán says

Hungary will be the one to decide whether Ukraine is able to achieve its hopes of joining the European Union in the future, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Saturday in an escalation of his adversarial posture toward Hungary's war-ravaged neighbor. Speaking at an annual State of the...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
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Anything said internally by Orban is meant almost entirely for domestic political signalling purposes. He sings a different song in front of the rest of Europe, because they control the purse strings to his economy. Gotta remember that Orban has set himself up as a mini Putin in Hungary, in that he directs where the money gets funneled to, and who it gets funneled to. Orban's friends and family are all getting quite wealthy under his government. Every time Brussels withholds funds to the country, it's his mini oligarch class who miss their turn at the trough. Orban will talk tough domestically, and be a dick to Brussels over Ukrainian ascension to signal to daddy Vlad that he's being a good boy. Brussels will withhold a signficant amount of transfers, and in this case probably negotiate some sort of subsidy for his agra industry, because tariff free trade on Ukraine grain is no fucking joke. The price of bread in Europe is going down the day after Ukraine joins. But he'll end up buckling eventually to get access to the money and the deal he wrangles out of Brussels, which I'm sure will be designed to further enrich himself and his oligarchs.
 
MindzEye said:
Anything said internally by Orban is meant almost entirely for domestic political signalling purposes. He sings a different song in front of the rest of Europe, because they control the purse strings to his economy. Gotta remember that Orban has set himself up as a mini Putin in Hungary, in that he directs where the money gets funneled to, and who it gets funneled to. Orban's friends and family are all getting quite wealthy under his government. Every time Brussels withholds funds to the country, it's his mini oligarch class who miss their turn at the trough. Orban will talk tough domestically, and be a dick to Brussels over Ukrainian ascension to signal to daddy Vlad that he's being a good boy. Brussels will withhold a signficant amount of transfers, and in this case probably negotiate some sort of subsidy for his agra industry, because tariff free trade on Ukraine grain is no fucking joke. The price of bread in Europe is going down the day after Ukraine joins. But he'll end up buckling eventually to get access to the money and the deal he wrangles out of Brussels, which I'm sure will be designed to further enrich himself and his oligarchs.
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Used to be a S.W.I.F.T. operator - Brussels is huge. For sure, at some point, he'll get his money, but at least Brussels will be able to put some screws to him before he does.
 
Cal Gal said:
Used to be a S.W.I.F.T. operator - Brussels is huge. For sure, at some point, he'll get his money, but at least Brussels will be able to put some screws to him before he does.
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If it gets bad enough, there's also the possibility of using Article 7 on Hungary. They allegedly threatened behind closed doors about a year ago when Orban was holding up an aid package, it would be pretty extreme but if he was unilaterally holding up Ukraine joining, I think they would eventually go that way. It removes all of that member nations voting rights...removes all of their member rights entirely but doesn't kick them out of the EU (there is no mechanism for that). Requires 1/3rd of member nations agreeing to bring it forward to a vote, and then a 4/5th's majority. It would be a pretty extreme measure to take because if holding up Ukraine leads to that, and then an article 7th attempt is made and fails...it could easily turn into the type of issue that creates a pathway to the breakup of the EU. But I could see 4/5ths (22 votes of 27) going for it if Orban pushed this, and losing member rights either leads to the fall of the Orban government or Hungary leaving the union.
 
WellPlayed said:
We’re gonna need to tackle this young men love fascism thing, and quick.
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I don't know if they love fascism so much as they have legit issues that 30-40+ years of neoliberal economics have dropped in their lap and they're reacting to it by wanting to tear the system down. Pretty sure if you gave them good jobs and affordable housing the issue would mostly go away.
 
MindzEye said:
If it gets bad enough, there's also the possibility of using Article 7 on Hungary. They allegedly threatened behind closed doors about a year ago when Orban was holding up an aid package, it would be pretty extreme but if he was unilaterally holding up Ukraine joining, I think they would eventually go that way. It removes all of that member nations voting rights...removes all of their member rights entirely but doesn't kick them out of the EU (there is no mechanism for that). Requires 1/3rd of member nations agreeing to bring it forward to a vote, and then a 4/5th's majority. It would be a pretty extreme measure to take because if holding up Ukraine leads to that, and then an article 7th attempt is made and fails...it could easily turn into the type of issue that creates a pathway to the breakup of the EU. But I could see 4/5ths (22 votes of 27) going for it if Orban pushed this, and losing member rights either leads to the fall of the Orban government or Hungary leaving the union.
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I'd actually misplaced this one in my cobwebby mind, but yeah - it'd be pretty frickin' rad tough, but at least it's a decent sized stick.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't know if they love fascism so much as they have legit issues that 30-40+ years of neoliberal economics have dropped in their lap and they're reacting to it by wanting to tear the system down. Pretty sure if you gave them good jobs and affordable housing the issue would mostly go away.
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Hey whatever the fix is I’m on board. Might want to take a look at regulating social media algorithms as well.
 
Cal Gal said:
I'd actually misplaced this one in my cobwebby mind, but yeah - it'd be pretty frickin' rad tough, but at least it's a decent sized stick.
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They can do it as long as there is no more than 5 no's. The concern nations based on previous aid votes are Austria, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Malta, and Cyprus. Hungary wouldn't count as they lose their ability to vote on Article 7 due to being the subject of it. So short of all 5 going against and there being a weirdo one thrown in there additional, it would probably pass and Orban would get smacked hard. But I think Orban knows that and will do what we've already discussed. Drag it out as long as possible and make it as expensive as possible to his benefit.

I'll say this though, the more serious Europe gets about it's defence, if he continues to be an obstructionist, I could see this come up in a hurry. Europe really appears to not be fucking around with the Russia threat anymore.
 
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