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OT: World Politics

zeke said:
poor edrogan thought trump would help him against russia.
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The depth and speed of the political reorgnization that is going to go on in that entire Ankara to London corridor is going to determine the next 50 years of geopolitical conditions. If they don't take it seriously enough and move quickly enough on that, the war is going to expand in Europe and get worse. Something Timothy Snyder keeps trying to remind people is that if we abandon Ukraine, Russia wins and when they show up at whoever's door next, it's not just Russia but Russia + the Ukrainian army that will be coming for people. Poland is going to have the strongest army in continental Europe by 2026-27 imo, but if Russia is allowed to absorb Ukraine (and then Belarus shortly thereafter), I think even Poland gets meat waved down.
 
zeke said:

View: https://x.com/McFaul/status/1891980286285553854
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220px-Trump_The_Art_of_The_Deal%2C_cover%2C_first_edition.jpeg
 
MindzEye said:
Aside from lifting sanctions, I'm not sure what mechanisms are even politically achievable for Trump here. He's on his way to being an autocrat but isn't there yet. Not to the point where directly aiding Russia financially is something he could get away with. So, I don't think a big ass e-transfer from Donnie is on it's way in the near future.

imo the likeliest bad outcome here is Donnie announces that he's reached a deal with Putin that is basically everything from Putin's original demands list (no Nato, no EU, no zelensky with immediate elections to replace him with a moscow friendly puppet, a bunch of land ceded that they haven't actually won in Zap and Kharkiv oblasts, etc) but with a bunch of American repayment demands/reparations thrown in there. Zelensky pisses on the deal and Don uses that as an excuse to cancel all aid, lift all sanctions on Russia, threaten the EU with tariffs if they aid Ukraine, etc.

Not so much "direct" aid to Russia, but an obvious attempt to force a re organization of the board where Ukraine is actually by itself with no help and locked in a room with Russia and only Russia.

It won't go down that way (I don't see the EU/UK abandoning Ukraine, they know this is existential to Europe), but that's the way Putin is drawing it up.
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That there "attempt to force a re organization of the board," effectively isolating Ukraine, has been on my mind awhile. Thanks for other thoughts, too.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Surely that €700B is for all of Yurp, not just UA.

That number is kinda crazy.
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Literally 0 confirmation or details out yet. But I'm going to bet that is military and administrative aid, as well as Europe finally deciding to turn that 300B of seized Russian money over to the fight as well. And the whole package being delivered over the course of a few years. So, say 100B a year over 4 years + 300B earmarked for reconstruction after the war, but the ~5% it's earning just sitting there going towards weapons purchases, etc while the war is going on.
 
Don't know if already posted -

www.yahoo.com

Mexico to reform constitution in wake of US terrorism designations

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday she will propose constitutional reforms aimed at protecting Mexico’s sovereignty after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration designated six Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. The U.S. designations have stirred worry...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
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