• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Tech Thread

back to DeepSeek...from a newsletter I subscribe to

Tell it to Me Like I’m 11-years Old​

DeepSeek, a small company, made a big discovery in how we use computers to run Artificial Intelligence (AI).

They figured out a way to do some of the really hard computer work while the AI is running, instead of doing it all before or after.

This new method, called Test Time Scaling, could make creating and running AI much cheaper and faster.

That’s shaking up the big companies that sell expensive hardware for AI, like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), because people might not need as much of their stuff anymore.

Even companies that supply energy to big data centers, like Cameco (CCJ) for nuclear power, could feel the impact if fewer giant computers are needed.

But here’s the good news: all this new technology means we’re going to get way more apps, websites, and digital tools. And that’s awesome for a bunch of other companies!
 
CH1 said:
he indeed sounds live every other evangelist. but Biden admin poured so much $$$ into clean tech,I think we'll see results....and with so many red states benefiting, I can see Trump taking credit for it rather than halting it.
Click to expand...

I'm personally of the opinion that the US needed a generation of investment to catch up if we're strictly talking renewables....and now with Trump we're really only talking solar because the stunned fuck hates wind turbines.

imo the only way the US was going to catch up in solar tech was through heavy investment in US companies that would use Mexico as a manufacturing hub with cost parity to Chinese production. But yeah, I think they needed a few more Bidenish administrations for that. The Chinese lead in the solar industry is epic.

Specific to fusion, Biden's investment only matched annual Chinese investment into their fusion industry. As usual in the modern US, they're waiting for VC's to fund the future.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CH1
It's impressive that China was able to use lesser nvidia chips (they weren't allowed to buy the high end ones) and still were able to basically create ChatGPT.

it's like me buying all my stuff from No-frills and creating a two Michelin star tasting menu (which I can't say has ever happened)
 
MindzEye said:
I'm personally of the opinion that the US needed a generation of investment to catch up if we're strictly talking renewables....and now with Trump we're really only talking solar because the stunned fuck hates wind turbines.

imo the only way the US was going to catch up in solar tech was through heavy investment in US companies that would use Mexico as a manufacturing hub with cost parity to Chinese production. But yeah, I think they needed a few more Bidenish administrations for that. The Chinese lead in the solar industry is epic.

Specific to fusion, Biden's investment only matched annual Chinese investment into their fusion industry. As usual in the modern US, they're waiting for VC's to fund the future.
Click to expand...

Decided to look this up...but yeah. China manufactured 78% of all solar panels last year and the US did just under 2%. Which seems bad, and it is, but the truth is actually worse. Vietnam is the world's #2 manufacturer at 6.4% and their industry is entirely chinese companies looking for a way to avoid tariffs. Malaysia is #3 and their industry exists for the same reason as Vietnam's.

So ostensibly, China controls just under 90% of world solar panel manufacturing.
 
CH1 said:
It's impressive that China was able to use lesser nvidia chips (they weren't allowed to buy the high end ones) and still were able to basically create ChatGPT.

it's like me buying all my stuff from No-frills and creating a two Michelin star tasting menu (which I can't say has ever happened)
Click to expand...

I'm still seeing some skepticism in the corners of the internet I inhabit for AI news that they actually did this and that just isn't a story they're telling to keep their secret, sanctions breaking pipeline to the chips a secret.

But, whether they did or didn't, it doesn't matter now. All that matters is the hardware needed to run the new models, which is confirmed to be waaay lighter than to run competing models.
 
CH1 said:
good insight into the DeepSeek aftermath

TL;DR it doesn't matter where DeepSeek is from. they innovated, and now the entrenched players will emulate DeepSeek's efficient code.


View: https://x.com/yishan/status/1884101107368223113
Click to expand...


I don't think the value destruction has to do with anyone thinking the incumbents are "dead". Nvidia isn't dead, it just currently appears that the previously held logic that AI was going to require more and more high end chips that only they were good enough to engineer is turning out to not be true. Nvidia dominates the market, but AMD and Intel also exist in the GPU space (and make cards competitive with Nvidia's mid to upper mid tier current gen stuff) so if bleeding edge isn't going to be necessary, that opens up the market for mid tier card manufacturers to chase market share.

AI end users like Meta aren't dead, this guy is right in that this just makes shit cheaper and pushes us closer to whatever the AI end game is here (I said similar yesterday). This is wonderful for the end user looking to bundle up AI products and pump them to the consumer.

What is cooked imo is the VC darling AI firms whose value were entirely bound within the little proprietary black box of AI wonder and mystery they had been working on for years. Whatever value there was in having a propriertary AI model is pretty close to dead. I've seen some arguments about US firms maybe not wanting to plug "chinese" AI models into their operations, but I think that misses the bit about this all being open source. You're not going to plug a "chinese" model in. You're going to take a 2.0 version of what was dropped this week that was repurposed specifically for you by a western firm specializing in AI value add that has been cooking up products based on Deepseek, and run that.
 
I get Ed’s missives in my inbox. I like his takes but man does he tend to ramble
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top