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The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

zeke said:
I think the offensive outage is team wide tbh. The only guys scoring at the expected pace, both goals and points, are Tavares and Lilly.

And actually the bottom 6 has been decent - 14 goals in 16 games, just under a goal per game, which is a solid rate for the bottom 6.
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- Willy is on pace for 31/77, don't know how much more we can expect there. Willy might have another gear though, yeah. But that's pretty close to career bests.
- Cap is fine, a bit ahead on goals, but overall about where we hope/expect
- Auston's a few goals off of a normal expectations (60 goals should not be expectation...fucking sweet when it happens, but that's legendary. Even Ovy didn't put up legendary goal scoring numbers every year of his prime. If we need Auston to score 60+ or else the offence is junk, the problem isn't Auston. 45+ though, yeah and he's a few goals off of that overall)
- Mitch is about .1ppg off of peak Mitch production. Last year was a bit of a goal scoring aberration for Mitch I think. 1.2ppg and ~30 goals is pretty much peak Mitch imo.
- Kampf has been great, 4th line overall has been really good since the original iteration of it was broken up (and Malgin was re inserted)
- Jarnkrok has been meh offensively (25 point pace), a lot more like last year's offensive Jarnkrok than "prime" (20/40) offensive Jarnkrok. I question whether we needed another Kerfoot.
- Kerfoot can't shoot the puck, and yeah, I don't want one of these, nevermind 2 on the roster. Puts way too much pressure on the top of the lineup to have to score goals.
- Bunting just flat out needs to be better
- Robbie is hit and miss so far, which is to be expected from a kid. Put some nice shifts together last night, had some fumblefuckery at times too though. Call me after 20 games.
- Engvall is on pace for 16 points....
 
Yeah but they're sitting at 10th in 5 on 5 xgf% so their record is sorta where you'd expect it to be. I wouldn't expect much better especially considering the goaltending from Kallgren. For sure they could have squeezed out a couple more points with an extra goal from Matthews or a save from Kallgren but I don't think their current record is particularly harsh considering their overall performance.
 
Preston said:
Yeah but they're sitting at 10th in 5 on 5 xgf% so their record is sorta where you'd expect it to be. I wouldn't expect much better especially considering the goaltending from Kallgren. For sure they could have squeezed out a couple more points with an extra goal from Matthews or a save from Kallgren but I don't think their current record is particularly harsh considering their overall performance.
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that's not really what i'm trying to say though - they deserve this record. it's just 16 games in so their early shit play is weighted fairly heavily. i don't see any real reason to think that's who they are.
 
hockeylover said:
that's not really what i'm trying to say though - they deserve this record. it's just 16 games in so their early shit play is weighted fairly heavily. i don't see any real reason to think that's who they are.
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Oh no I'm not suggesting that's who they are. Just acknowledging that they haven't been good enough and need to get their shit together.
 
hockeylover said:
i dunno most of our losses have been 1 goal games or two goal games with empty netters, including two OT losses to crap teams, i think four extra goals from mitch and matthews could've easily resulted in a couple extra wins.
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I mean, sure. But we're 23rd in GF/60. Adding 4 goals would take us from 2.79/60 to just over 3.00, so...17th

It's a problem, but not the biggest problem. Now, add that to the 8-10 goals the rest of our forwards haven't provided and the 4-5 our blueline hasn't provided and we're top 3.

Basically, we're 1 goal a game off of expectations. Some of that is Mitch & Auston absolutely. But again the expectations simply can't be 60+ and 35+. Those are fucking unreasonable. Beautiful when it happens, but expecting historic/legendary goal scoring off of Auston's stick and fringe elite goal scoring off of Mitch's isn't reasonable imo. Not when we're talking about whether or not this should be a top 5 offence or not.
 
Basically what I'm saying is that if we need Auston & Mitch to play like super elite top 5 players for us to be more than a ~100 point team, we need to stop making fun of Edmonton around here.
 
Yeah I thought Kyle had a very weird offseason with little to no creativity or thinking outside the box. Samsonov was potentially a "get" (please keep it up) but other than that, I'm not sure I liked anything he did. I feel like they could do better with the Kerf and Jarny money. That's a precious 5.6m dollars spent on players who really aren't much of a threat to produce goals.
 
We're always hysterical and emotional here! But I will say, going into the season it sure felt like the roster was designed to rely on Robertson to become a real thing and threat to score at a 20+ goal rate this season as the primary offensively weapon beyond the core four. He still may be that guy, but if he isn't it's something they'll have to address at the deadline.


Edit: and yes, they're still very very good without Robertson being that guy. But my standards/expectations = top 2 or 3 NHL team
 
Preston said:
We're always hysterical and emotional here! But I will say, going into the season it sure felt like the roster was designed to rely on Robertson to become a real thing and threat to score at a 20+ goal rate this season as the primary offensively weapon beyond the core four. He still may be that guy, but if he isn't it's something they'll have to address at the deadline.


Edit: and yes, they're still very very good without Robertson being that guy. But my standards/expectations = top 2 or 3 NHL team
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Agreed! But not really as a reaction to what we've seen so far, I was saying that in September.

"Only part that I’m still iffy on is the second line. It’ll do for regular season just fine but getting a big deadline add there would be huge."

I still think we'll be just fine this year in the regular season.
 
hockeylover said:
our board has been way too hysterical this year through 16 games so far, imo. we need more sample size for everything as far as im concerned.
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Yes....but

I've seen this movie too many times now. I want to see a different movie where "we can and we will" doesn't end with "surround our elite talent with depth that can't contribute to winning". I was entirely on board with the idea that we were going to leverage smarter acquisitions (a lot of front offices around the league are flat out dumb) to build a fast, deep roster. Instead it appears that it's turned into this:

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Except the one guy who's supposed to fix everything is 2 guys.
 
we're dead last in goals scored below expected 5 on 5. don't really think that continues personally.

no problem admitting i'm wrong if it doesn't.
 
Matthews and Marner will go on a crazy run where they score at insane rates like 50 goals in 50 games or 130+ point paces. Hopefully it’s in the playoffs this year though.

the depth scoring I am not so sure though.
 
We needed to dump Muzz and put his money to work on a forward. That was the move. Blew it. Now no Muzz and no forward. We’ll be lucky if he’s out the season and we can add someone sooner rather than later. This team needs a core 5 and they’ve proven it several playoffs in a row.
 
hockeylover said:
we're dead last in goals scored below expected 5 on 5. don't really think that continues personally.

no problem admitting i'm wrong if it doesn't.
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dead last probably won't continue, but keep in mind that thus far Holl, Rielly, Giordano, Sandin and Brodie have scored....drum roll please...

one goal combined in 16 games.
 
Volcanologist said:
dead last probably won't continue, but keep in mind that thus far Holl, Rielly, Giordano, Sandin and Brodie have scored....drum roll please...

one goal combined in 16 games.
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I'm not entirely sure how this combats the post you're responding to tho? I'm not disputing we need more offense than we've gotten.

Their expected goals is 4.

Our expected goals as a team is 55 and we've scored 45.

If you're 10 goals below expected through 16 games and you've got Kallgren in net for half of them, that's quite an uphill climb.
 
I know it's late tor the game, but this is why Keefe played Kallgren. I bet pizza man plays next game for a shot
 
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