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The Fucking Season Thread - Redemption Tour '22

Well like I said a betting man would bet on them falling off those scoring paces.

As for the Leafs, they're still recovering from an epic shooting slump to start the year, so there's decent reason to think theyll continue to move up the list.
 
Colorado gets a ton of offence from the blueline. Makar & Toews are both PPG+ this season. Girard is their 3rd highest scoring defender and he's on pace for 50 points. We have one defender better than that currently in MoMo, on pace for 72 points.

Also, Kadri has decided that he's a fucking superstar this year (55 points in 38 games, a 118 point pace). It's kind of hard to beat that when the team already had a super line that has found that temporary but oh so beautiful super line magic.

Florida also gets way more offence from the blueline than we do, with Ekblad, Weeger, Montour, & Forsling all on pace for 37 points or more (again, we have 1 better than that). Up front, their "big 4" (Barkov, Hubie, Reinhart, Duclair) are all at around PPG or better.

Shorter answer: Both teams have forward out performing their career norms and pushing paces that match (or beat) what we're getting from our 4 this season, while at the same time having way more blueline production.

An Interesting stat is that Colorado is 2nd and Florida is 3rd in HDSH%, Toronto is 23rd. Their HD chances are ending up in the net more often, and ours aren't. Whether that's luck or lack of finishing talent through out the lineup though, I dunno.
 
There's also this:

Power Play G/60

Toronto: 11.75 (1st)
Colorado: 9.09 (10th)
Florida: 7.66 (12th)

Penalties drawn

Colorado: 198 (1st)
Florida: 177 (3rd)
Toronto: 129 (30th)

Give us 60-70 more PP attempts and we'd be fucking shit up offensively too.
 
There's also this:

Power Play G/60

Toronto: 11.75 (1st)
Colorado: 9.09 (10th)
Florida: 7.66 (12th)

Penalties drawn

Colorado: 198 (1st)
Florida: 177 (3rd)
Toronto: 129 (30th)

Give us 60-70 more PP attempts and we'd be fucking shit up offensively too.
Last six years power play opportunities (incl this year):

27th
20th
23rd
31st (wtf??)
29th
16th

Yeah we're getting hooped.
 
Yeah I was going to point that out about the Avs - their 5v5 scoring is very good but not crazy. And even their PP scoring rate is also just very good, not great. But they get a shitload of PPs.

Meanwhile the Panthers are just overwhelming offensively 5v5 right now but just mediocre on the PP (but they also get a ton of PPs so their total PP production is still good).

a game managed playoff series would level out those differences quite a bit.

5v5:

FLA 3.52gf/60 (#1), 3.10xgf/60 (#1), 9.44sh% (#4) - on pace for 230 goals
COL 3.23gf/60 (#5), 2.52xgf/60 (#12), 9.44sh% (#3) - on pace for 206 goals
TOR 2.69gf/60 (#11), 2.92xgf/60 (#3), 8.06sh% (#18) - on pace for 179 goals

PP

COL 8.93gf/60 (#9), 8.41xgf/60 (#9), 14.89sh% (#10) - on pace for 74 goals
FLA 7.71gf/60 (#12), 6.44xgf/60 (#23), 15.77sh% (#8) - on pace for 55 goals
TOR 12.06gf/60 (#1), 10.12xgf/60 (#2), 16.68sh% (#4) - on pace for 72 goals

so of the 2 its actually the Panthers that look scarier offensively imo.

then again, defensively at 5v5, the Avs rank 5th in xga/60, while the Panthers rank 20th. (Leafs rank 10th, but closer to 2nd than to league average).
 
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Fucking Kadri. Loved when he was here. Playoff bs notwithstanding I loved his game.

I hate when we lose trades.
 
Good thing we don't lose often.

Just that when we do, we lose BIG. Rask/Raycroft, Marleau/1st, Kadri/Kerf&Barrie, Kessel/Seguin&Hamilton.

Go big or go home, I say.
 
Yeah I was going to point that out about the Avs - their 5v5 scoring is very good but not crazy. And even their PP scoring rate is also just very good, not great. But they get a shitload of PPs.

Meanwhile the Panthers are just overwhelming offensively 5v5 right now but just mediocre on the PP (but they also get a ton of PPs so their total PP production is still good).

a game managed playoff series would level out those differences quite a bit.

5v5:

FLA 3.52gf/60 (#1), 3.10xgf/60 (#1), 9.44sh% (#4) - on pace for 230 goals
COL 3.23gf/60 (#5), 2.52xgf/60 (#12), 9.44sh% (#3) - on pace for 206 goals
TOR 2.69gf/60 (#11), 2.92xgf/60 (#3), 8.06sh% (#18) - on pace for 179 goals

PP

COL 8.93gf/60 (#9), 8.41xgf/60 (#9), 14.89sh% (#10) - on pace for 74 goals
FLA 7.71gf/60 (#12), 6.44xgf/60 (#23), 15.77sh% (#8) - on pace for 55 goals
TOR 12.06gf/60 (#1), 10.12xgf/60 (#2), 16.68sh% (#4) - on pace for 72 goals

so of the 2 its actually the Panthers that look scarier offensively imo.

then again, defensively at 5v5, the Avs rank 5th in xga/60, while the Panthers rank 20th. (Leafs rank 10th, but closer to 2nd than to league average).

what are their respective PxA scores?

(playoff cross checking adjustment)
 
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