The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[Volcanologist]

I know this might seem like a batshit crazy idea, but I think you have to consider moving on from Matthews at this point. If his Leafs had real playoff success to their credit and/or a Cup win to his credit, I think the guy would have been happy to spend his entire career here.

But what seems more likely now? He’ll want to stick around with a team he’s no closer to winning with than in his rookie season and continue to take the heat in hockey’s biggest media market for the team’s massive history of playoff chokes? Or leave all that noise behind and fuck off to New York or LA?

I guess we’ll have a clearer answer to that when whoever our GM is and Matthews sits down at the negotiating table. But IMO, Matthews either needs to be signed to a long-term extension this summer or traded prior to training camp for the best possible return. You can’t end up like the Flames with Tkachuk & Gaudreau.

the tragedy here is we're seriously talking about parting ways with a 25 year old 60 goal Hart winner and a 100 point Selke finalist winger. It's madness. especially for this franchise.

I understand what this was now, though. I understand now why the hockey gods let us have Matthews and Marner to begin with. They were bored of watching the Leafs fail without players with elite talent. This was doubtless immensely more satisfying and a wonderful change of pace.

You have to admit the scriptwriting was incredible on this one. I tip my cap to them.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Hire Laviolette

 

[thehabhater]

Can we finally take these pointlessly Dom from The Athletic expected goal stats and stick them in the trash?

They mean absolutely fucking nothing seeing that the goals in the series have come from the grittiest players exclusively.

 

[Preston]

Can we finally take these pointlessly Dom from The Athletic expected goal stats and stick them in the trash?

They mean absolutely fucking nothing seeing that the goals in the series have come from the grittiest players exclusively.

Wrong time to say this. The stats showed that Florida is really good and should not be underestimated. And while you were plugging your ears and excited about their record post deadline and the leafs series win, others were concerned because the stats were showing that they were not playing good hockey. Meaning any future success is unlikely unless they play better.... And here we are.

My take home is that advanced stats have crushed it this playoff. High predictive value. Your "nothing matters, just win" mentality has proven bullshit.

 

[JackBurton]

Can we finally take these pointlessly Dom from The Athletic expected goal stats and stick them in the trash?

They mean absolutely fucking nothing seeing that the goals in the series have come from the grittiest players exclusively.

I agree. I am so tired of seeing stats on how it is statistically almost impossible for them to lose a series,

 

[thehabhater]

Wrong time to say this. The stats showed that Florida is really good and should not be underestimated. And while you were plugging your ears and excited about their record post deadline and the leafs series win, others were concerned because the stats were showing that they were not playing good hockey. Meaning any future success is unlikely unless they play better.... And here we ar.

My take home is that advanced stats have crushed it this playoff. High predictive value.

You have no idea what I was saying while I was watching the games in my house. It is fucking presumptuous for you say what I either saying or thinking at any given time unless I tell you what I am thinking

What I was thinking was that I was watching a clinic in forechecking by Florida and that the Leafs core four are too soft.

My fingers never went near my ears.

 

[Preston]

You have no idea what I was saying while I was watching the games in my house. It is fucking presumptuous for you say what I either saying or thinking at any given time unless I tell you what I am thinking

What I was thinking was that I was watching a clinic in forechecking by Florida and that the Leafs core four are too soft.

My fingers never went near my ears.

Many told you what the stats showed while they were winning games at high rates. They warned you that any future success is unlikely while playing like this. You chose to ignore it. Now you're doing a victory lap. It's a weird flex.

 

[Preston]

If you want sustainable success, if you want to win 4 series, you're not gonna do it consistently losing the nerdies every game. The teams that win cups, also win the nerdies. It's not a difficult concept.

 

[thehabhater]

I agree. I am so tired of seeing stats on how it is statistically almost impossible for them to lose a series,

The nerds use their “stats” to rationalize failure, not to see where the problems are and where to adjust.

And what kind of ridiculous stat is expected goals? If you are making 11 million dollars, I don’t need Dom to tell me that he expects you to score Really? For 11 million dollars I expect you to lead and win

 

[thehabhater]

Many told you what the stats showed while they were winning games at high rates. They warned you that any future success is unlikely while playing like this. You chose to ignore it. Now you're doing a victory lap. It's a weird flex.

One cannot do a victory lap if one loses or is wrong…,

 

[Preston]

One cannot do a victory lap if one loses or is wrong…,

That's my point. You were wrong.

 

[thehabhater]

If you want sustainable success, if you want to win 4 series, you're not gonna do it consistently losing the nerdies every game. The teams that win cups, also win the nerdies. It's not a difficult concept.

Florida is winning by forechecking and great goalkeeping. They are not winning by Dom deciding mythical stats for expected goals

 

[thehabhater]

That's my point. You were wrong.

How many “expected goals” have the core four scored this series?

 

[thehabhater]

That's my point. You were wrong.

But, I am not wrong….

 

[Preston]

Florida is winning by forechecking and great goalkeeping. They are not winning by Dom deciding mythical stats for expected goals

... Those things are reflected in the stats. Leafs won a lot of games they shouldn't have. They got lucky. Florida lost a lot of games they should have. They had poor goaltending and poor luck. The stats showed all of this. Many saw this coming because of what the stats showed. "Just winning" is great but if you're not playing well while doing it, it's not gonna end well. And it didn't.

 

[thehabhater]

... Those things are reflected in the stats. Leafs won a lot of games they shouldn't have. They got lucky. Florida lost a lot of games they should have. They had poor goaltending and poor luck. The stats showed all of this. Many saw this coming because of what the stats showed. "Just winning" is great but if you're not playing well while doing it, it's not gonna end well. And it didn't.

.

 

[Habsy]

Florida has been playing playoff hockey for 3 months now.

The knock on the Leafs is sandpaper or lack thereof. Dubas continuously tweaks this sandpaper.

Well this year the sandpaper is all that's scoring. I can't help but feel there's unsaid animosity or at least silent blame going on between your stars. The mix just isn't working and that's something the nerdies do not pick up.

This is my opinion only, you're being affected by the human factor that can't be quantified.

 

[Preston]

The nerdies have said they've been a mediocre team since March. They fully picked up that they probably weren't serious contenders as much as I tried to delude myself into believing so.

And yeah, that's not even factoring in Matthews and Marner being playoff duds. No denying that. The nerdies picked up that too of course.

 

[Habsy]

The nerdies have said they've been a mediocre team since March. They fully picked up that they probably weren't serious contenders as much as I tried to delude myself into believing so.

And yeah, that's not even factoring in Matthews and Marner being playoff duds. No denying that. The nerdies picked up that too of course.

Did you incorporate Barkov's line's nerdies? They're paid too you know.

Really not trying to be a dick but it's quite noticeable when the stars of other teams stepped up when winless in the second round.

Clearly you were right and something is amiss but what? There's something with the relationship with the stars is all I could think of.

Last night you could clearly see the frustration in the third. Very noticeable watching players go to the bench etc. Once things are going bad they fold too quickly and with how Toronto media and many fans deal with the frustration could turn off resigning by Matthews or Marner. At what point do these guys, who are now men, decide "fuck it, not worth the aggravation"?

Now there are those that would stick to get it done because the jobs not finished, that's not the attitude I witnessed last night. Down 0-2 heading into OT and they looked like it was an afternoon game in December.

 

[Preston]

Did you incorporate Barkov's line's nerdies? They're paid too you know.

Really not trying to be a dick but it's quite noticeable when the stars of other teams stepped up when winless in the second round.

Clearly you were right and something is amiss but what? There's something with the relationship with the stars is all I could think of.

Last night you could clearly see the frustration in the third. Very noticeable watching players go to the bench etc. Once things are going bad they fold too quickly and with how Toronto media and many fans deal with the frustration could turn off resigning by Matthews or Marner. At what point do these guys, who are now men, decide "fuck it, not worth the aggravation"?

Now there are those that would stick to get it done because the jobs not finished, that's not the attitude I witnessed last night. Down 0-2 heading into OT and they looked like it was an afternoon game in December.

The nerdies can help tell a story but it takes a deeper analysis to figure out why things happen. I don't know. The Matthews/Marner playoff issues are separate from the teams overall issues post-deadline. I don't know how to fix that. Trading them is dumb but not trading them might be dumb too.

Dubas straying from his vision and identifying slow gudpros and dump and chase/puck off the glass players to fill out his roster is an easier diagnosis for me. That explains the majority of the teams issues since the deadline. But again, the Matthews/Marner stuff only adds to it and that's the harder bit to figure out.

They got lucky that Knies was as good as he was because that forward group without him is clearly lacking. Decent chance they don't beat Tampa without him. And hey, to Kyle's credit maybe it wasn't all luck. That was a great draft pick and Kyle may have known that he was a legit big time "deadline" addition to the forward group.