MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Far more thought provoking response then I was prepared for
The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread
- Thread starter LeafGm
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I mean, there's a whole lot of questionable shit in there:
Nylander: Is "sticking" with him really a big deal? Yes, I know the media stupidity surrounding "trade Nylander" is a thing. But is that our bar for irreplaceable here? Not being Nick fucking Kypreos?
Marner: As mentioned, Hunter gets and probably deserves a lot of credit here. But again I think we're into "the media are idiots" bit again here. Hanifin had a pretty meh freshman season and was getting "but he's 6'3 and handsome" scouted by the media. Mitch was coming off of a semi historic 17 yr old season in the OHL and of course played for the team Hunter fucking owns.
Tavares: yeah...I don't see this as a win. I see this as a missed opportunity scooping up a non elite player for super elite money and parachuting in a robot who hadn't come close to winning anything, as captain and leader of a club. That San Jose was willing to spend more money on the mistake doesn't make the mistake not a mistake.
Hyman: Fair, great trade
Freddie: Eh, this one is a meh for me too if we're counting from Dubas tenure onward. Ignored the red flags and rode him as our #1 until be broke. Got one good year out of 3 attempts out of him, and freshly baked playoff muffins at the worst time for his troubles.
Sammy: Good move so far, yeah.
Sandin: Ehh, fucking about his development and trading him for a worse pick isn't a win
Lilly: Pending.
Bunting & Mikky: great found wallets
Campbell: Ehhh...Good cheap pickup, but riding him as a #1 turned out to be a pretty ugly mistake as well.
Ritchie: lol, you can't sign a terrible free agent and then count dumping him among the wins, may as well throw the fucking Mrazek debacle into the win column if we're doing that.
I mean, counting prospects who haven't done anything in the show (including my nephew Nick) as a win is kind of silly.
I'm not saying that he done nothing right. But I think there's just too many significant mistakes. His goaltending choices have been mostly poor (and expensive), he's yet to find enough of cost effective depth forwards he said were his job to find in the "we can and we will" series of speeches a few years ago. Even things he's done well with, like the blueline, he's built up a number of black eyes on imo with the unwillingness to develop prospects, constantly adding plug gud pros that turn out being our worst defenders by miles, etc.
So much hit and miss that I'm not remotely confident in his ability to push the organization forward and should there be top candidates out there (again I bring up Tulsky), I would definitely consider a change.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
A lot of truth here but I still think it’s better than 50/50 that his replacement is way worse
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Especially if Shanahan had input the gud pro influence. Seems to reason he’d hire a replacement who believed in that
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I definitely understand this fear, but the one thing that tempers that for me is that it was Shanahan who initially wanted to revamp the organization to be more data driven. Dubas was brought in largely because of the work he did in the Sault using data to revamp their program.
Most of the things that Shanny can be faulted for as rumours and innuendo (thumb on the scale, etc). I mean, sure, if Shanny was the one who dictated to Dubas that the plan needs to change and we went left, sure fuck him too. But that's all just theory crafting and inference.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
It's one of, if not the most desirable job in the league. We're into our PTSD bag on this one I think, that we're going full dinosaur as a repudiation of this era, when it might very well be that we hired a dinosaur in nerd glasses and Shanny was sold a bill of goods that Dubas backtracked on as he got deeper into his tenure. Dubas wouldn't be the first guy ever to sit in a job interview and talk a great game but not be able to deliver on it.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Maybe
Or maybe Shanny got cold feet and insisted on toughness and experience and Dubas has been holding down the fort clinging to the last shreds of discernible skill based hockey that he could
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
They've barely been seen together in like 12 months, I don't think that's because Shanny is dictating roster moves to him.
Again, Shanny was the first guy on this train in the organization. Doesn't strike me as a "cold feet" kind of guy and looking around the league there's no reason for him to believe that his inclination of going data driven was the wrong way. The clubs that have put data at the centre of their decision making are winning.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
and we would have our pick of them.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Or, Stanford Bowman
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Hey, you won a few cups with that idiot
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
You don’t want to know what the key to success was
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Rape, yes I know.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Montana
Champion
disagree, in the NHL landscape of even a few years ago, a pile of teams don’t stick with him through our run….especially if the first round losses occurred in this hypothetical as well.
far far more likely he’s dealt.
you say that, but he went after Strome for size reasons, and loads of folks preferred Hanafin at the time.
can’t take away legit wins, just because he did what we wanted, and then assume others would have too, imo.
Completely disagree
Hes been a phenomenal player the whole times he’s been here, has played a massive role in us having the success we have, is coming off 36/80 in year 5 of a 7 year deal….and didn’t cost us a single asset to acquire other than money, which invariably is a percentage of the acquisition cost when signing UFA’s. (Plenty of teams trade huge assets to acquire a player of this ilk, and then extend them for UFA money.)
Had a completely unforeseen event not resulted in complete cap stagnation this isn’t even remotely a conversation…..but even just factoring in a mill or two per as the acquisition cost, it’s been a fantastic addition superior to nearly any other in Leafs history.
Id recalled Dubas being a driving force in going for Andersen, but I accept if I was wrong on that. Three straight years of .918 goaltending, a span of 192 starts, is one of the best runs in franchise history imo.
The pick is an undisputed win imo.
maybe for you….I think Lil has been a fantastic developmental story, given how much everyone had written him off.
Found wallets is of pretty important significance for GMs….creating real value out of thin air, is enormous,
.916 goalie for us for two full seasons and playoffs….thats a win. Unfortunate he had a brutal year two Yoffs..but he was also .934 the year prior.
if something like the Jack Campbell acquisition isn’t a win, i think expectations for GMs levels of perfection is far too high.
moving off mistakes quickly is a huge
in any manager. Hockey or elsewhere.draft picks doing well after their selection is a win regardless….if an asset is more valuable today thats a win. They also don’t even need to pan out in the NHL to be wins.…so long as they’re dealt while they hold said prospect value.
I just think going off this list alone, your expectations for the success hit rate for a GM is unrealistically high.
Tulsky would be a great replacement candidate…..but he’s far from being any sort of lock to be superior to Dubas. (They probably agree on a large swath of moves as it is…..but I don’t feel like (a) gambling theyd choose him, (b) that he’d be better and (c) that we wouldn’t pick someone demonstrably worse.
If our outcomes had been better this would be another nonstarter convo imo, and most people wouldn’t even dream of a swap….but some brutal playoff puck luck/getting goalied (which we know is outside the GMs hands), and we don’t have a couple gret runs under our belts that would solidify peoples appreciation for Dubas, despite him having done nothing different than he has.
Hell, just the Tavares injury in the Habs series alone, could have been the difference between us being in a ECF, or the Stanley Cup Finals themselves.
Im trusting In this process, over the results….or that a stab in the dark guess in changing GMs might positively impact results.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Dubas ain't the worst gm in the league but most of his good moves were a result of him trusting and following his own process. Recently he has made several errors, all due to him bailing on his process.
I'm anxious about who his replacement would be but he's nowhere near irreplaceable. Not even close.
I'm anxious about who his replacement would be but he's nowhere near irreplaceable. Not even close.
Montana
Champion
the only thing I’d add to this, is that throughout sports history one of the more common phenomenons is teams replacing a coach/GM with one methodology, and replacing them with a vastly different (often completely opposite) approach.
So we might be really playing with fire to hope the next hire would be even more Dubas than Dubas, analytically.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, we're really not going to agree on much there.
Yet here we are a bunch of years in and getting outed in 5 games by a 92 point team in the 2nd round is our high water mark. Me thinks you're being a bit too kind in your judgement of the individual moves that landed us here.
Yet here we are a bunch of years in and getting outed in 5 games by a 92 point team in the 2nd round is our high water mark. Me thinks you're being a bit too kind in your judgement of the individual moves that landed us here.
Montana
Champion
a 92pt team who got .901 goaltending from Bob….if we faced that, we sweep them…hell even .910 Bob and we likely win in 5.