The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[thehabhater]

This is correct but highly misleading

Florida is a damn good team. Period. They are playing like champions right now.
Odd, since they only squeaked into the playoffs, but they are earning every win.

 

[Jeremy]

Dad Dad Dad Dad Dad Dad

 

[Habsy]

But it's not. We can have a discussion about whether Florida is better than your typical 92 point team, but it was still a 92 point team with ~.900 goaltending.

Yes, they were a good nerdies team that have a incredibly bad 1st half but were still only a 101 point pace team from January 1st onward.

So you're making a myopic point? I'm confused. I get that their point total was 92. What was their +|- btw?

They were clearly an under performing team in the first half and it could be attributed to getting used to the new guys after the trade. Yes, they fumbled about but I think that was just to give Habs fans blue balls.

 

[axlsalinger]

Just kidding with the tinfoil hat but it's kind of silly to expect a guy to be exiled on Robidas Island next year, who was already cleared to play, this year.

That being said, a Samsonov / Woll tandem makes a lot of sense (financially and otherwise) and moving Murray should definitely be explored.

 

[MindzEye]

but it's kind of silly to expect a guy to be exiled on Robidas Island next year, who was already cleared to play, this year.

It's wild that we're like a decade into seeing various types of LTIR fuckery and we're honestly discussing whether the base premise of it all even exists.

Also wild that we're treating team doctors as if they're not in on it when we know they are and have worked on behalf of their teams numerous, numerous times in the past. As long as it doesn't put Murray in danger (fuck...and even if it did, team doctors have a bad history of putting injured players on the ice), the doctor will do what they're told by the team & Murray.

For clarity, I'm not suggesting that we're forcing Murray onto LTIR unilaterally. He would be in on the move, and would be doing it to preserve his whole salary and avoid a buy out. But if Murray tells Doc "I don't feel quite right" (about losing 2.7 million dollars...), he books his ticket to Robidas Island. Wouldn't even make a top 5 list of most ridiculous LTIR burys over the last 10 years.

 

[Habsy]

I know you were kidding dude. All good

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Same career as if we bought him out this summer, which has to be on the table if a trade doesn't materialize, which is a real possibility.

Except he'd be short 2.7 million dollars in that scenario.

If we buy him out, he’s signing with a team and playing next year. If we robidas him, he sits all year.

 

[MindzEye]

If we buy him out, he’s signing with a team and playing next year.

Maybe. He's been injured and below average for 4 straight seasons now. No one is banking on him as anything but a pure backup going forward.

He's looking at 1 yr deals somewhere around the AHL cap reclaim max (1.125ish) on the top end. If he was bad but reliable, I could see a multi year deal at 1.75ish that would make a buyout more palatable for Murray, but I can't see it. He's as likely to end up with a AHL deal as a NHL deal imo.

If we robidas him, he sits all year.

But gets his money.

 

[MindzEye]

It's not a conspiracy if they're really out to get you.

Kind of wild how many bad contracts just disappear onto LTIR when we spend so much time talking about how cap fucked the team is going to be when they sign them, eh?

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Maybe. He's been injured and below average for 4 straight seasons now. No one is banking on him as anything but a pure backup going forward.

He's looking at 1 yr deals somewhere around the AHL cap reclaim max (1.125ish) on the top end. If he was bad but reliable, I could see a multi year deal at 1.75ish that would make a buyout more palatable for Murray, but I can't see it. He's as likely to end up with a AHL deal as a NHL deal imo.



But gets his money.

But then maybe no other decent NHL contract after sitting out so long. That’s all I’m saying. Is that extra $2m he’s owed worth risking a few more years of $3m per? I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he goes along but I don’t think it’s realistic.

And I do think there’d be takers at short term $2.5m/$3m per right now.

 

[Habsy]

It's wild that we're like a decade into seeing various types of LTIR fuckery and we're honestly discussing whether the base premise of it all even exists.

Also wild that we're treating team doctors as if they're not in on it when we know they are and have worked on behalf of their teams numerous, numerous times in the past. As long as it doesn't put Murray in danger (fuck...and even if it did, team doctors have a bad history of putting injured players on the ice), the doctor will do what they're told by the team & Murray.

For clarity, I'm not suggesting that we're forcing Murray onto LTIR unilaterally. He would be in on the move, and would be doing it to preserve his whole salary and avoid a buy out. But if Murray tells Doc "I don't feel quite right" (about losing 2.7 million dollars...), he books his ticket to Robidas Island. Wouldn't even make a top 5 list of most ridiculous LTIR burys over the last 10 years.

The NHL is systemicly rotten and needs a complete purge. I really think if you got 12 billionaires together and said pro sports is where the money is there would be interest. The entry fee? A paltry $150m to get the league structure set up.

East

Toronto
Montreal
Quebec City
NY
Philadelphia
Boston

West

Chicago
LA
Houston
KC
San Francisco
San Diego

and go from there.

 

[Habsy]

66 game season, six games against each.

Full use of available technology.

I think people would watch first out of curiosity then when they see penalties called and no fuckery I think the real hockey fans would stay. Plus it's a big fuck you to the NHL once again.

Also draft the juniors coming out. Now their agent has two teams to talk to, again a big FU to the NHL.

I'd watch.

 

[MindzEye]

But then maybe no other decent NHL contract after sitting out so long. That’s all I’m saying. Is that extra $2m he’s owed worth risking a few more years of $3m per? I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he goes along but I don’t think it’s realistic.

And I do think there’d be takers at short term $2.5m/$3m per right now.

Why though? Plays 20-25 games a year and puts up a ~.900, for 3 straight seasons now.

That's a below average backup, except he's not a reliable backup because he can't stay healthy.

 

[Montana]

But it's not.

but it is….a 92pt team connotes a certain level of team quality. Florida had a much higher team quality than that (reigning Prez winners), dragged down by .901 goaltending.

which is obviously what Habsy was referring to…..and if we played a Florida team with .901 goaltending, maybe your “technically correct” statement would hold water.

but we didn’t…we played a very very good Florida team (not Leaf’s good, but still damn good) with .945 goaltending. Which is a different animal altogether, and again obviously what Habsy meant by “misleading”.

saying we lost to a 92pt team, is obviously an attempt to knock them for losing fo some wholely mediocre squad.


we didn’t.

 

[MindzEye]

but it is….a 92pt team connotes a certain level of team quality. Florida had a much higher team quality than that (reigning Prez winners), dragged down by .901 goaltending.

Goaltending is

A) Part of what determines team quality

or

B) Part of what determines team quality

maybe your “technically correct” statement

Aka: the best kind of correct

saying we lost to a 92pt team, is obviously an attempt to knock them for losing fo some wholely mediocre squad.


we didn’t.

I mean, if you want to say that we lost to a 92 point team with a goalie on a heater...sure, I wouldn't argue against that (despite not being on a heater going into the series....but I'm generous, so whatev)

But we lost to a team that capped out as a ~100 point type regular season team in the 2nd half, that has literally zero history of playoff success before this season. The opposite actually.

 

[Montana]

Goaltending is

A) Part of what determines team quality

or

B) Part of what determines team quality

Aka: the best kind of correct

being pedantic to cover for being wrong….less so.

I mean, if you want to say that we lost to a 92 point team with a goalie on a heater...sure, I wouldn't argue against that (despite not being on a heater going into the series....but I'm generous, so whatev)

i mean I want to say we lost to a team that was 7th in 53.64 xG%, a couple slots behind us at 54.12%….were 4th in xG for, and had a xG differential 3 goals off ours.

so yeah, to just try and dismiss them as a 92pt team…to obfuscate from the reality of how good their skaters were and got .945 tending on top of that.

honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if we kept them to a level of play lower than their season average.

But we lost to a team that capped out as a ~100 point type regular season team in the 2nd half, that has literally zero history of playoff success before this season. The opposite actually.

….except beating the 135pt Bruins in round one…..(who had a lower xG differential than the Panthers.)

dismissively saying we lost to a 92pt team, is intentionally misleading about the quality of team we faced.


@Habsy you can take it from here, this is as much energy as I can expend to say a Habs fan is right.

 

[Montana]

We lost to a very very good team, almost our equal….that got .945 goaltending.

 

[MindzEye]

We lost in 5 games to the 8th place xG% team and got goalied by a guy with a .901 sv% this season, who has had one average or better season out of the last 4 (and it wasn't this one)

I don't think your narrative is painting what you want it to say about what just happened. 5 games and out against a good nerdies team with a bad goalie. Making a bad goalie look like a fucking stud for 5 games isn't an actual achievement.

 

[LeafGm]

We lost in 5 games to the 8th place xG% team and got goalied by a guy with a .901 sv% this season, who has had one average or better season out of the last 4 (and it wasn't this one)

I don't think your narrative is painting says what you want it to say about what just happened. 5 games and out against a good nerdies team with a bad goalie. Making a bad goalie look like a fucking stud for 5 games isn't an actual achievement.

See: Korpisalo, Joonas.

Or making the drug-addled corpse of Carey Price look like prime Dominik Hasek.

Maybe if your elite offensive talent is always getting “goalied” in the playoffs, it’s not actually the other team’s goalie that’s the problem.

Unless, again, these are just the unluckiest motherfuckers ever.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

But how the heck is it even a thing that some of the best scorers in the world on this team can’t solve bad goalies in the playoffs? How does that make sense in any rational way?

These goalies are putting up their best numbers ever…why? It’s not because they learn how to suddenly become elite against us. And it’s not because elite forwards forget how to light them up. There’s something more going on that neither we nor the Leafs have been able to figure out.

And it may be something real fucking simple like these guys refuse to take easy shots, always waiting to make the prettier and harder play. That deserve o meter doesn’t lie.