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The Motherfucking 2021 Season Thread

Artnes said:
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He's probably talking about HD SV% (and related HD metrics), which is Freddy level.
 
Dfsv% (difference between fenwick sv% and expected fenwick sv%):

Ullmark

18-19: -1.16 (#49 of 52 with 1000+min)
19-20: -0.34 (#29 of 50 with 1000+min)
20-21: -0.85 (#32 of 45 with 500+min)

3yr: -0.77 (#40 of 45 with 2500+min)
2yr: -0.48 (#29 of 45 with 1500+min)
 
zeke said:
Dfsv% (difference between fenwick sv% and expected fenwick sv%):

Ullmark

18-19: -1.16 (#49 of 52 with 1000+min)
19-20: -0.34 (#29 of 50 with 1000+min)
20-21: -0.85 (#32 of 45 with 500+min)

3yr: -0.77 (#40 of 45 with 2500+min)
2yr: -0.48 (#29 of 45 with 1500+min)
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That's a fairly big discrepancy between DFsv and GSAA. GSAA has him comfortably above average the last 2 seasons.
 
ah I see he does rank better 5v5.

last 2yrs he's +0.01 5v5 which ranks 21 of 53 goalies with 1000+ min.

so maybe Buffalo's PK is skewing the numbers? or maybe not.
 
leafman101 said:
I don't really understand fenwick sv%. Why does sv% on shots that miss the net matter?
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as always, remember that it's based on which numbers correlate best, and in this case they found that fenwick save percentage was most reliable.

the reasons aren't clear, but would probably have to do with fenwick being a legit part of a goalie's workload, i.e. he is still preparing for and trying to save those shots, even if they end up missing.
 
zeke said:
as always, remember that it's based on which numbers correlate best, and in this case they found that fenwick save percentage was most reliable.

the reasons aren't clear, but would probably have to do with fenwick being a legit part of a goalie's workload, i.e. he is still preparing for and trying to save those shots, even if they end up missing.
Click to expand...

Seems weird. Just guessing, but I would think it bakes in team D performance in counting missed shots, rather than by measuring goalie talent and any added predictive ability is coincidence.

Missed shot totals are not repeatable from a goalie perceptive.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
What do you guys think about Connor Garland? He seems Dubassy and Zona has goalies for days
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Nice player, but I’m assuming you’d have to pay a premium since he’s young and still under team control going forward.

And then the Leafs wouldn’t really have the ability to protect him in the expansion draft.

I’m also getting increasingly wary of Arizona’s goalies, since both Kuemper & Raanta are currently on LTIR.
 
Carolina is an interesting G market.

Nedeljovik has taken ygat job and Mrazek is coming back. This could lead to a solid alcoholic beverage tandem in Toronto. Jack and Ginger

Ducks to avoid mindz 1.5 cum
 
If Dubas is going to make a trade, he might want to speed it up if possible because they might start making the 14 day quarantine again with the rising numbers?
 
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