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The New Division

TheMightyIgor said:
It's not about being selective. It is about demonstrating that shortened seasons which start late are not necessarily representative of a player's ability.

Note that the two players you brought up never played a game in the AHL.
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What is representive of a players ability?

Would it be elite production in junior? elite production in the ahl? high draft pick? success in early stages of nhl career?

Kadri has all of the above.

Sure, Kadri might peak at 22. Anything is possible. It's just not very likely based on his history.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Zhamnov finished third in league scoring during the shortened season. What was the next highest he ever finished in league scoring?
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Zhamnov was a PPG+ player before that season, and he was 2 yrs older. You're clinging to bullshit here. They're simply not comparable. A much closer comparable (in age, draft position, etc) was Forsberg. That just tells you how piss poor your comparison is, when Forsberg is a better comparable than what you're using.
 
MindzEye said:
On the flip side though, Kessel seems to be trending towards being a 90 point player. He produced at an 87 point pace last season with a 55 point winger and 50 point centre. If JVR takes a step forward this season, and Kessel gets any sort of PP time with the much more talented (than Bozak) Kadri, Kessel might take a solid run at 90+. Nobody else in the conversation has the talent to even get a sniff of 90.
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I don't think the calibre of Kessel's teammates is going to affect his point production. Kessel's a very similar player to Kovalchuk whose production remained fairly constant regardless of who he played with.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
It's not about being selective. It is about demonstrating that shortened seasons which start late are not necessarily representative of a player's ability.

Note that the two players you brought up never played a game in the AHL.
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They're European, why would they play in the AHL? They played in their domestic professional leagues (which are generally considered to be roughly equivalent in quality to the AHL) and like Kadri they were ~PPG players in those leagues before they entered the NHL.
 
MindzEye said:
Zhamnov was a PPG+ player before that season, and he was 2 yrs older. You're clinging to bullshit here. They're simply not comparable. A much closer comparable (in age, draft position, etc) was Forsberg. That just tells you how piss poor your comparison is, when Forsberg is a better comparable than what you're using.
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Why don't you try answering my question instead of moving the goalposts around?

I admit that Zhamnov was older than I had thought because he was 19 when he was drafted. But, once again, it isn't about finding comparables. It is about demonstrating that a late starting short season is not the same as a full season when it comes to predicting a player's future ability. This isn't a hard notion to grasp.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Why don't you try answering my question instead of moving the goalposts around?

I admit that Zhamnov was older than I had thought because he was 19 when he was drafted. But, once again, it isn't about finding comparables. It is about demonstrating that a late starting short season is not the same as a full season when it comes to predicting a player's future ability. This isn't a hard notion to grasp.
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Make a prediction for Kadri next season.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
I don't think the calibre of Kessel's teammates is going to affect his point production. Kessel's a very similar player to Kovalchuk whose production remained fairly constant regardless of who he played with.
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You realize that Kovalchuk as a perennial 40-50+ goal scorer when he had Savard & Hossa in Atlanta. He had an 82 game pace with Jersey of 33 goals over his 3.5 seasons in Jersey.

You getting tired of saying things that aren't supported by reality yet?
 
UWHabs said:
I'd go with a straight Kessel > Max > Ryan > JVR. I'm more sold on Ryan and less on JVR than everyone else here.

In terms of next year, I'd probably peg them for Kessel 80ish pts, Max 65-70, Ryan 60-65, JVR 50-55. I also don't think Kessel is amazingly more awesome than Max or Ryan - I wouldn't be shocked to see either of those 2 have a really lucky season and put up better numbers than Kessel. Maybe not this year, but in the next 2-3 years. I'd still peg Kessel's average pace to be decently higher than the others, but he's not significantly far enough ahead that they couldn't catch him.
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So despite the fact that Pacioretty has yet to even hit the ceiling that Ryan has, he is still >.

You guys are putting way way too much emphasis on one shortened season to make a determination on a player.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Zhamnov finished third in league scoring during the shortened season. What was the next highest he ever finished in league scoring?
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Not that Zhamnov has any relevance here at all but he was a spectacular player for like 4 or 5 years. Unfortunately injuries kept him from ever putting up a full season of great play. Those injuries also seemed to be a big part of the reason his career deteriorated.

His first 4 seasons in the league
235gp 103g 267p (82gp 36g 93p)
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Why don't you try answering my question instead of moving the goalposts around?
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Because it's a shite comparable. Kadri was a 22 yr old rookie during the shortened season. Zhamnov was a 24 yr old entering his 3rd season in the NHL. Why are we even comparing them?

I admit that Zhamnov was older
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First time you've said something correct so far, congrats

than I had thought because he was 19 when he was drafted. But, once again, it isn't about finding comparables. It is about demonstrating that a late starting short season is not the same as a full season when it comes to predicting a player's future ability. This isn't a hard notion to grasp.
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and that's all awesome. Make a prediction then.
 
2013-14 (Pace)
Kessel 41g 86p
Pacioretty 36g 73p
Ryan 32g 61p
Kadri 29g 58p
JVR 25g 56p

Karlsson 13g 69p
Subban 19g 66p
Phaneuf 15g 57p
 
MindzEye said:
You realize that Kovalchuk as a perennial 40-50+ goal scorer when he had Savard & Hossa in Atlanta. He had an 82 game pace with Jersey of 33 goals over his 3.5 seasons in Jersey.

You getting tired of saying things that aren't supported by reality yet?
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He put up 42 goals in 82 games with Hossa playing a partial season in Atlanta in 2006-7. He put up 43 goals in 79 games without Hossa in Atlanta in 2008-9. He then put up 31 goals in 49 games (52 goal pace) the following season. Clearly he was a much better scorer when he was playing with Hossa and Savard. :rollseyes:

I'd think that his production in New Jersey went down because he was forced to play a more complete two way game instead of having a weaker set of linemates unless you think that Parise and Elias are not as good as Kozlov and Todd White.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
He put up 42 goals in 82 games with Hossa playing a partial season in Atlanta in 2006-7. He put up 43 goals in 79 games without Hossa in Atlanta in 2008-9. He then put up 31 goals in 49 games (52 goal pace) the following season. Clearly he was a much better scorer when he was playing with Hossa and Savard. :rollseyes:

I'd think that his production in New Jersey went down because he was forced to play a more complete two way game instead of having a weaker set of linemates unless you think that Parise and Elias are not as good as Kozlov and Todd White.
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You mean the two guys who had 70+ point seasons with Kovalchuk?

He had, by far his best seasons in Atlanta with Savard & Hossa. Full Stop. What you're suggesting is that Kessel wouldn't see any offensive improvement if he wasn't playing with 2 50 point players. Gotcha. Shit, in his only seasons without Hossa & Savard, he had a bunch of guys putting up 70 points playing with him, Kozlov, White, Antropov...Kessel as a Leaf has never played with anyone who's put up more than ~60 (in fairness, Joff was PPG until he got injured).
 
corksens said:
I think he'll put up 65 points.
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That's a fair prediction. I think he'll best that, but it's a fair prediction in line with the predictions I've seen online that call for his shooting% coming down to 11-12% (though they always seem to gloss over his usage).

For the record, I see Ryan popping something in the range of 28-32 goals and a similar amount of assists.
 
MindzEye said:
That's a fair prediction. I think he'll best that, but it's a fair prediction in line with the predictions I've seen online that call for his shooting% coming down to 11-12% (though they always seem to gloss over his usage).

For the record, I see Ryan popping something in the range of 28-32 goals and a similar amount of assists.
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I think the biggest thing for Ryan is going from 1:45 of PP time to 3:15.

Add that to undoubtedly being on the top unit (and not a weak 2nd unit like in Anaheim) and you'll see him in the 35/35 range.
 
MindzEye said:
You mean the two guys who had 70+ point seasons with Kovalchuk?
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I'd suggest their 70+ point season had more to do with playing with Kovalchuk and not with their level of talent.

He had, by far his best seasons in Atlanta with Savard & Hossa. Full Stop. What you're suggesting is that Kessel wouldn't see any offensive improvement if he wasn't playing with 2 50 point players. Gotcha. Shit, in his only seasons without Hossa & Savard, he had a bunch of guys putting up 70 points playing with him, Kozlov, White, Antropov...Kessel as a Leaf has never played with anyone who's put up more than ~60 (in fairness, Joff was PPG until he got injured).
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He played one season with both Savard & Hossa and it was an aberration of a season due to the high number of power plays handed out that year. His numbers have been pretty consistent from year to year depending upon the team.
 
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